[Pops]

THE COMING CHAOS
Peter Goodchild
Oil, Electricity, Agriculture, Population, Tribulation, Survival

Systemic collapse, the coming dark age, the coming crash, overshoot, the die-off, the tribulation, the coming anarchy, resource wars — there are many names, and they do not all correspond to exactly the same thing, but there is a widespread conviction that something ominous is happening.

PDF Link

http://bravenewworld.in/

H/T Leanan @ TOD

[ritter]

Feel good article, eh?

[americandream]

I've a one year old daughter.

[evilgenius]

This reminds me of a continual theme in science fiction over the past decades, that of populations descended to medieval levels but who still use this and that high tech wonder. We could get there with the internet, using it to scale physical efficiency, while the rest of life falls gradually apart. Of course, you would have to convince businesses to put the most intimate details about themselves online first so that consumers could make much more logical choices from the comfort of home or from behind the wheel. I don't know which is more unlikely, that the internet will come along in the face of energy disruption or that business will cooperate at the required level?

[Daniel_Plainview]

THE COMING CHAOS
Peter Goodchild
Oil, Electricity, Agriculture, Population, Tribulation, Survival

Systemic collapse, the coming dark age, the coming crash, overshoot, the die-off, the tribulation, the coming anarchy, resource wars — there are many names, and they do not all correspond to exactly the same thing, but there is a widespread conviction that something ominous is happening.

PDF Link

http://bravenewworld.in/

H/T Leanan @ TOD

This may have been an impressive piece 15 or 20 years ago ... but how is this anything other than a re-hash of what we've been saying on this forum since its inception?

And what's his final conclusion? How does he tie this all together?

[Lore]

The message always bares repeating. Sadly for most people it will remain ignored.

[Pops]

I've only made it to Pg 6 but the last para on that pages deserves comment/discussion:

In terms of its effects on daily human life, the most significant aspect of fossil-fuel
depletion will be the lack of food. “Peak oil” basically means “peak food.”

Peak oil doesn't equal peak food - peak year-round variety maybe, peak cheap protein consumption probably but not lack of food. In the US, in 2002 for example ag only directly and indirectly used about 1.7% of all energy consumed and in fact the amount used has declined 25% since the '70s.(1)

Lets not forget half of US grain output goes to feeding food - beef, hogs, poultry. Feeding ICEs is catching up though, last year when more corn went to ethanol than Elsie.

Eating habits will change, but oil peak ≠ lack of food, those tractors will vie with UAVs for the last drop! We won't be hungry because we don't produce enough, whether we have jobs enough to afford food is another question.



(1) Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, Energy Use in Agriculture: Background and Issues, 2004

[Pops]

This may have been an impressive piece 15 or 20 years ago ... but how is this anything other than a re-hash of what we've been saying on this forum since its inception?

And what's his final conclusion? How does he tie this all together?

If you're interested DP, read it and find out.
If you have all the answers then why do you hang around re-hashing what you already know?

[seahorse3]

Pops, I agree. There is a lot of "demand destruction" left in the system before total collapse envisioned in this article. I just don't think we get there. The political and economic system will probably change in ways we don't like, but people will be fed via the gov't and tv. As long as people have french fries and multimedia, it doesn't take much to placate them.

I can see the US political system bending or breaking in certain ways. The economic effects of "demand destruction" aka recession may break us between political lines of north and south, aka red state/blue state. Or, alternatively, we may have less "freedom" and more centralized control, which we are already seeing in some areas. So, I don't know which way it will be ultimately. It's beyond my paygrade.

I believe that much of the PO problem is attributed to Western excess, aka US excess for stuff they don't and never needed. I can envision a time when the US economy fails, similar to Russia, and our own vast natural resources are "bought" or "exported" to other "emerging economies" and we are reduced to third world status. This pipeline from Canada to the Gulf is some evidence of that. They are not building that pipeline for US customers, and the Chinese are already trying to buy up interest in Canada and US oil shales.

On a personal note, I talked to a logger today who is interested in buying walnut off of local properties here, bc it's in high demand in China. Maybe they need walnut stocks for their AKs?? At any rate, just a very local example of our resources being exported abroad to emerging economies.

[Cog]

[quote="Pops"
Peak oil doesn't equal peak food - peak year-round variety maybe, peak cheap protein consumption probably but not lack of food. In the US, in 2002 for example ag only directly and indirectly used about 1.7% of all energy consumed and in fact the amount used has declined 25% since the '70s.(1)

Your really don't have a clue of how much modern agriculture relies on fossil fuel inputs do you?

[Lore]

[quote="Pops"
Peak oil doesn't equal peak food - peak year-round variety maybe, peak cheap protein consumption probably but not lack of food. In the US, in 2002 for example ag only directly and indirectly used about 1.7% of all energy consumed and in fact the amount used has declined 25% since the '70s.(1)

Your really don't have a clue of how much modern agriculture relies on fossil fuel inputs do you?

I'd be interested in knowing. Got some stats and a link?

[Carlhole]

Folks would be surprised at just how many peak oil books and countless articles I have read on the subject of overpopulation, resource depletion, etc. I've been at it for over ten years now.

But damn me if I can't stop reading things about science, automation, robotics, the singularity, etc as well.

Why is it that in these time-worn screeds warning about the coming apocalypse that no one ever includes any analysis of the the trends in automation and robotics that point in the exact opposite direction? They are zooming, dammit!

Automation, robotics, AI and everything else in our scientific boom times appears to contradict everything one reads in this type of apocaplyptic literature. When will some Heinberg or Kunstler out there finally include some decent analysis which includes these contrary trends? Instead, there are simply ignored. For fark's sake, they are part of our world!

[kiwichick]

regarding food post peak

any govt worth it's salt will ration the available liquid fuel

the essential services and ag will have first priority

[Loki]

On a personal note, I talked to a logger today who is interested in buying walnut off of local properties here, bc it's in high demand in China. Maybe they need walnut stocks for their AKs?? At any rate, just a very local example of our resources being exported abroad to emerging economies.

The US certainly appears to be heading toward Second World status, with Third World perhaps not far behind. May have already achieved the former, at least for a large proportion of working slobs.

Here in my corner of Cascadia the hubbub is that the trees feeding the mills in my little village are going to China. Milled at least, not raw logs, but still. I'm not real happy that our trees are feeding the Chinese beast, but I bet the millworkers aren't too worried about it, especially after the lingering collapse of the US housing market. I recently heard from the local storeowner that they're renovating the old rail line that goes to a coastal town with a big port. The mills in my village are built around the line, I'm sure they'd be happy to have a more efficient way to move logs to Asia.

But what happens if China collapses along with the rest of us? Not something I hear discussed much around here. I really have no idea how China will react to peak oil, catastrophic climate change, and the collapse of the global economy. But somehow I doubt they'll want our lumber any more.

As for AK furniture, most is made from plastic these days, even the folding stocks, which used to be steel. Definitely something appealing to a wood stock, though, even on an AK. Old school.

[Lore]

Folks would be surprised at just how many peak oil books and countless articles I have read on the subject of overpopulation, resource depletion, etc. I've been at it for over ten years now.

But damn me if I can't stop reading things about science, automation, robotics, the singularity, etc as well.

Why is it that in these time-worn screeds warning about the coming apocalypse that no one ever includes any analysis of the the trends in automation and robotics that point in the exact opposite direction? They are zooming, dammit!

Automation, robotics, AI and everything else in our scientific boom times appears to contradict everything one reads in this type of apocaplyptic literature. When will some Heinberg or Kunstler out there finally include some decent analysis which includes these contrary trends? Instead, there are simply ignored. For fark's sake, they are part of our world!

Actually, if you would have read the referenced article here you would have found that the author sees such techno fixes subject to the same frailties that are doomed to failure under peak oil.

[Lore]

regarding food post peak

any govt worth it's salt will ration the available liquid fuel

the essential services and ag will have first priority

That is, if there is functional centralized government to do so.

[seahorse3]

I tend to agree that evolution is overlooked in doomsday scenarios- and I mean technological. We may well extinct ourselves with AI that can survive without clean air or water which can survive global warming and survive the extremes of Fukushima for example

[Lore]

I tend to agree that evolution is overlooked in doomsday scenarios- and I mean technological. We may well extinct ourselves with AI that can survive without clean air or water which can survive global warming and survive the extremes of Fukushima for example

In the documentary, "The Prophets of Doom", AI was determined to be the least plausible in terms of potential future worries. We will never reach that point of development, before the fall, where Terminator fantasies could come true.

[papa moose]

I tend to agree that evolution is overlooked in doomsday scenarios- and I mean technological. We may well extinct ourselves with AI that can survive without clean air or water which can survive global warming and survive the extremes of Fukushima for example

I think you have a good chance of being proven right, have you seen this thread by Pops?

http://peakoil.com/forums/message-boards-soon-obsolete-t62695.html

[Carlhole]

Folks would be surprised at just how many peak oil books and countless articles I have read on the subject of overpopulation, resource depletion, etc. I've been at it for over ten years now.

But damn me if I can't stop reading things about science, automation, robotics, the singularity, etc as well.

Why is it that in these time-worn screeds warning about the coming apocalypse that no one ever includes any analysis of the the trends in automation and robotics that point in the exact opposite direction? They are zooming, dammit!

Automation, robotics, AI and everything else in our scientific boom times appears to contradict everything one reads in this type of apocaplyptic literature. When will some Heinberg or Kunstler out there finally include some decent analysis which includes these contrary trends? Instead, there are simply ignored. For fark's sake, they are part of our world!

Actually, if you would have read the referenced article here you would have found that the author sees such techno fixes subject to the same frailties that are doomed to failure under peak oil.

No man, they just gloss over it as if it were a retarded relative at the dinner table.

They totally ignore science and automation.

If I were a young person today, I would be paying strict attention to the trends in automation. Just think... think of the 70% line... the 70% of human capability that can soon be replaced by machines. That's everything from Accountant and Lawyers down to changing baby diapers... It's coming, Man! It'll be here soon. Why don't any of these apolyptic authors mention Science and Technology?

Why don't they?!!

If they think it's going to peak , then why don't they make a prediction as to when Science & Technology will begin to decline? Come on!!

Make a prediction!!