[bochen777]

From "Donald Trump really is Xi Jinping’s friend. The phase one US-China trade deal proves it":

Pressure from the US president has helped China in a way its leaders would not want to acknowledge publicly

This deal strengthens the hands of Beijing’s pro-reform officials and kick-starts long-delayed liberalisation nearly 20 years after China joined the WTO

Amerikkka will attack China in hot war on or before Oct 15th 2020

https://forum.ascendchina.ch/t/americas ... n-earth/85

[REAL Green]

“Is China On The 'Brink' Of A Major Food Shortage?”
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/c ... d-shortage

“Jinping said China had to "maintain a sense of crisis about food security" amid the virus pandemic. The warning comes as the world's second-largest economy could soon face food shortages. Besides the virus-induced economic downturn disrupting food supply chains, there's been droughts, floods, and pests that are likely to result in poor harvests this year…Estimates show China wastes enough food to feed 30 to 50 million people per year, according to a study published by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the World Wildlife Fund in China. The government's abrupt crackdown on food waste suggests a shortage could be nearing: But the campaign [Clean Plate Campaign] has raised speculation China could be facing a food shortage, although state media outlets were quick to try and stop the panic of imminent food shortages, reporting that China had recently seen consecutive bumper grain harvests and record high grain output. As living standards have raised, so has consumption. Obesity levels have soared and China was estimated to waste enough food in a year to feed a country the size of South Korea. But with the pandemic already cutting consumption levels, China's options to quell any shortages domestically were limited. Subsidising production could fall foul of World Trading Organisation rules which could heighten tensions with the US. This would mean China, already the world's largest importer of food, would need to look to increase imports to meet demand. This could then have a ripple effect on prices all around the globe. -Farmers Guardian”

[REAL Green]

Of course, the west has been doing these activities for years, particularly the US, but China is perfecting these abilities under the guise of a peaceful BRI. Anyone who thinks China is a force of good in the world is delusional:

“China Looks To Build Espionage Hub In Iran Under 25-Year Deal”
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle ... -Deal.html

“The next phase of the 25-year deal between China and Iran will focus on a large-scale roll-out of electronic espionage and warfare capabilities focused around the port of Chabahar and extending for a nearly 5,000 kilometer (3,000 mile) radius, and the concomitant build-out of mass surveillance and monitoring of the Iranian population, in line with the standard operating procedure across China, senior sources close to the Iranian government told OilPrice.com last week…Both of these elements dovetail into Beijing’s strategic vision for Iran as a fully-functioning client state of China by the end of the 25-year period. By that time, Iran will be an irreplaceable geographical and geopolitical foundation stone in Beijing’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ project, as well as providing a large pool of young, well-educated, relatively cheap labor for Chinese industry. The mass surveillance, monitoring, and control systems to cover Iran’s population is to begin its full roll-out as from the second week of November, after the final agreement on event sequencing has been reached in the third week of October at a meeting between Iran’s most senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and intelligence services figures and their Chinese counterparts. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, already agreed on the broad plans in July, according to the Iran sources. “The plan is for nearly 10 million extra CCTV [closed-circuit television] cameras to be placed in Iran’s seven most populous cities, to begin with, plus another five million or so pinhole surveillance cameras to be placed at the same time in another 21 cities, with all of these being directly linked in to China’s main state surveillance and monitoring systems,” said an Iran source. “This will enable the full integration of Iran into the next generation of China’s algorithmic surveillance system that allows for the targeting of behavior down to the level of the individual by combining these inputs with already-stored local, national, and regional records on each citizen, together with their virtual data footprints,” he said.”

[dissident]

The sphincter puckering of westerners over spying by their designated "enemies" takes the cake for paranoid hypocrisy. Love to dish it out, but can't take it.

[bochen777]

China is finished...

In the battle between hegemonic systems it seems America has won...

Banning Huawei was never just about spying, IP theft, or anything like that, there was a MUCH bigger picture and MUCH larger fish to fry...
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/up ... _flynn.pdf

For those of you who don't know, Intel has been stuck at 10nm for years and is hopeless, TSMC is the future. All the modern smartphones and IoT devices and appliances that need to have good battery life whilst performing faster need to be on the 7nm process or less (now state of the art is 5nm and TSMC working on 3nm). Your Apple phone that runs the Apple chip? Apple offshores that chip making to TSMC. The Huawei phone that has Huawei's own HiSilicion chipset? That is made by TSMC. The 5G base stations that Huawei brags about? The chipset is made by TSMC....

TSMC is a Taiwanese company, and whilst geographically located close to mainland China it is basically pro-American and on the Trump side of things...
What US was able to do last week was get Taiwan to on-shore its TSMC factory to America, so that even if a confrontation in the South China Sea ends up with losing Taiwan the US will still have home-grown EUV microprocessor capabilities whilst banning China from access to these chips, including the machines that produce the chips (ASML) and the entire supply chain surrounding all of this (German Carl Zeiss etc)...

By lowering the De minimis U.S. content rule from 25% to 10% and now down to 1%/zero percent, China won’t be able to source chips anywhere, even from non-US firms, and they will have hard time to even source the machines that build the machines that build the chips, as any supplier that has even 1% US content won’t be allowed to export to China to help China build a homegrown processor/fab capabilities... The intent of this is to throw China back into the stone age. Make no mistake, this is the America cutting off Japan from oil moment we just witnessed... Did you guys know China actually spends more money importing computer chips than it does oil? This is how critical processors are to China.

Make no mistake, this ban is not limited to just Huawei, infact I have on good authority that SMIC (Chinese mainland version of TSMC that is years behind) is next, and a total blanket ban of all processors to China soon to follow after that. SMIC won't be able to catch up in time, and Huawei's entire 5G base station chips were designed for 7nm process, meaning not only does this kill Huawei's bread and butter of being able to export 5G (70 contacts signed worldwide) thus giving that business to US /Western companies but in fact it will even make it impossible for China to complete the rollout of its own domestic 5G market, meaning China will have to use American 5G (TSMC is being set up in Arizona with plans to buy Greenland for the rare earth minerals to get ahead of China using the rare earth card etc and Trump plans to buy Nokia and Ericcson to transfer 5G tech to USA not to mention Marco bill to invalidate Huawei 5G patents paving way for Verizon/AT&T to use them freely etc) or none at all, and during a time of war when US decides to attack China mainland coast after first taking the SCS or Taiwan, it can flip a switch and basically electronically shutdown all of China to cut off the Chinese C&C and cause mass chaos and panic throughout the mainland.

Without the ability to climb the tech ascension chain ("Made in China 2025") this will cause China to be stuck in the so called Middle Income Trap... it is almost impossible to do this if China cannot find a workaround to the bans which deprive it of access to state of the art fabs /chip making processes etc. How can China continue to expect to be world's factory if it is denied microprocessors? How can China climb the tech ascension if its 5G/ AI and other dreams are dashed due to not having the access to chips?

On the other hand, if AI pans out and in the future US can have fully automated factories that need no human labor, then no longer is the need to outsource to cheaper places like India, Mexico, China, etc because nothing is cheaper than AI which runs on electricity costs for labor... Globalization could be going in reverse in that sense and automation will mean supply chains returning local again.

Pundits say that 5nm is not economically viable without Chinese market... but politics trumps economics.. especially when America is using this as weapon to contain and erase China and US still has the luxury of the petrodollar hegemony and USD as global reserve currency affording it to print its way out of this issue and making the rest of the world pay for the decoupling.

Fusion is still 40 years away from real application, oil is running out, climate change is real, we have past peak resource globally and population overshoot is a real thing...

The biggest issue is that of peak global resources , be it peak oil, peak minerals, peak fresh water, peak top soil. So in that perspective the world really is a zero sum game and Chinese rising standards of living in aggregate means less piece of the pie for everyone else, including Americans. If the end goal is to shutdown China (crater its GDP) then that would be bigger pieces of the pie for the rest of the world, and that would directly and proportionately benefit the US by far the most in terms of rising standards of living. The real wages in the US haven't risen since the 1970's...a good part of it is due to China's rise in standards of living taking ever larger slices of the pie. So this could be what Trump meant when he said he was going to MAGA

The only way Americans can sustain their non-negotiable way of life is to start harvesting China in a sort of Plaza Accord 2.0; but since "trade talks" broke down last year and Xi/CCP made it clear that China wasn't going to let itself be colonized/harvested by the West then the US had no choice but one choice left, to completely crater China GDP by cutting it off from computer chips....

In the long run if US can regain tech preeminence and full spectrum dominance it can become a leader in AI, and if it wins AI and 5G/6G and gets in front, (no matter what tactics it uses) then it won't even need China anymore for manufacturing at all!

Very few people can see what I see, the big picture, we live in a post-peak-resource world, and so its not only zero-sum, its ever-shrinking-slices-of-the-pie! Red queen race! US has to run faster and faster just to stay in place, it was storing China up like a piggybank counting on harvesting China by now but the Chinese did not play ball and so the only way is for US to start manufacturing itself locally using AI and automation whilst crashing Chinese GDP now that China is useless to America and just another 1.4 billion extra mouths to consume ever dwindling global resources!

No matter what happens, Trump just dropped the hammer on China and this is the inflection point of the second cold war and so far America seems to have the clear advantage / leverage.

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/up ... _flynn.pdf

US chip industry won’t survive tech war, Chinese experts say
US semiconductor companies need revenue from the China market in order to innovate and prosper
https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/us-chip-i ... perts-say/

US chip industry will lose in any tech war with China: claim
https://www.itwire.com/government-tech- ... claim.html

The American semiconductor industry will not survive a tech war with China, both US and Chinese tech industry sources have told the Asia Times, with the only party believing that Washington will prevail being the Trump administration.

Economist David P. Goldman explained that chip companies in the US needed the money that they earned from China to drive research and development, while Beijing merely had to produce rough-and-ready substitutes to meet its own needs.

Goldman's article was written after the news that the US was planning to place restrictions on China's largest chip maker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, broke.

He quoted an unnamed official from a big Chinese technology company as saying: "The scenario at the moment is that it’s just a matter of time before [the American chipmakers] don’t survive.”

The official expanded on this by pointing out that China would invest massive amounts in a bid to "displace US chip designers, chip software developers, and chip equipment manufacturers, and drive them out of the market".

Goldman said: "Companies at risk include designers like Qualcomm and Nvidia, chip software developers like Cadence and Synopsis, and equipment makers like Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA-Tencor.

"The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 5.7%, or US$100 billion (A$138 billion) of market capitalisation, on 4 September following news reports that China was about to launch a massive program to develop so-called third-generation semiconductors as part of a US$1.4 trillion, five-year subsidy plan for tech industries."

There have been at least three predictions from knowledgeable sources after the restrictions placed on Huawei in May that the US would come off second-best in any tech war.

Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, was one; China expert Doug Fuller was the second and the third was the British international magazine, The Economist, which said the May strictures could drive part of the semiconductor industry out of the US, not exactly the outcome that power brokers in the US expected.

But this is the first time that any author has asserted, after additional sanctions were placed on Huawei's chip imports in August, that China would come out on top in a tech stoush.

American industry sources whom Goldman spoke to told him that SMIC was a bad target as it did not make custom chips for the People's Liberation Army, as Washington believes, according to The Wall Street Journal.

One consultant said: "The Chinese military doesn’t buy custom chips from SMIC. They get them from third parties on order from TSMC [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world's biggest fab].

“Most of what the Chinese military uses is off the shelf generic chips, just like the Pentagon. It costs US$500 million to design a custom chip. The Pentagon doesn’t have the budget for it. Neither does the PLA.

"So SMIC is not mainly for military applications. The WSJ and its sources have bad information. The White House isn’t looking at the facts."

Goldman wrote that the fact China was such a massive buyer of American technology meant that its factories could sub-contract out a job and make it impossible to track. US software to design chips has been bought in such volumes by Chinese firms that a host of start-ups could be given a single task, he pointed out.

"China is the world’s largest market for semiconductors and semiconductor equipment. Fifty-six percent of Synopsis’ sales and 55% of Cadence’s sales were to foreign purchasers as of the second quarter of 2020," Goldman wrote. Synopsis and Cadence are American companies that make chip design software.

"In the case of chip designers, 92% of Nvidia’s sales and 89% of Qualcomm’s sales were overseas. China imports US$200 billion of semiconductors a year, most of which directly or indirectly contribute to revenues of US designers, software developers and equipment makers," he added.

Goldman explained that at the beginning of the year, the US Department of Defence had vetoed a proposal to place export controls on American semiconductor makers, on the grounds that it would reduce income and force cutbacks in funds for research and development. But the Trump administration went ahead in May and the scenario that the Pentagon had predicted was coming to pass.

He quoted a Chinese executive as saying, “The best case scenario for the Americans is an agreement on market share [in China], in which case the US companies survive. The scenario at the moment is that it’s just a matter of time before they don’t. China doesn’t have to export – they just have to produce for their own consumption and that wipes out the US companies.”

[REAL Green]

The sphincter puckering of westerners over spying by their designated "enemies" takes the cake for paranoid hypocrisy. Love to dish it out, but can't take it.

More like a wake up call for a snake in the grass. Sinophiles love to tell us China is a force of good in the world but this is delusional. What is so hilarious is westerners will tell you this as they are targeted for eventual extermination.

[bochen777]

The sphincter puckering of westerners over spying by their designated "enemies" takes the cake for paranoid hypocrisy. Love to dish it out, but can't take it.

More like a wake up call for a snake in the grass. Sinophiles love to tell us China is a force of good in the world but this is delusional. What is so hilarious is westerners will tell you this as they are targeted for eventual extermination.

Says the only nation that actually used nukes on other nations, the only nation that genocide entire landmass for manifest destiny, sea to shiny sea, Monroe doctrine, now wants to claim the moon too and butting up against China coast in the South China Sea

[REAL Green]

Says the only nation that actually used nukes on other nations, the only nation that genocide entire landmass for manifest destiny, sea to shiny sea, Monroe doctrine, now wants to claim the moon too and butting up against China coast in the South China Sea

Sombody is really emotional tonight and talking out his ass. This forum is a place for logic and reason not triggered adolescents.

[JuanP]

"Beijing achieves full 5G coverage"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1200412.shtml

Beijing has become the second city in the world to achieve full 5G coverage, after Shenzen. China has more than 400,000 5G base stations already installed and running and more than 100 million 5G terminal devices, such as phones, tablets,laptops, IoT, etc.

[bochen777]

"Beijing achieves full 5G coverage"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1200412.shtml

Beijing has become the second city in the world to achieve full 5G coverage, after Shenzen. China has more than 400,000 5G base stations already installed and running and more than 100 million 5G terminal devices, such as phones, tablets,laptops, IoT, etc.

meanswhilze in anerikkka
land of the exceptional
home of the """Clean network"""

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technolo ... 8/5g-speed

[dissident]

It's too late for America to sabotage China's semiconductor industry. It has reached critical mass over 10 years ago and is now basically at the leading edge. Both in terms of custom CPU design and high resolution lithography. Only chauvinist, hubris filled windbags would have fantasies that China is not capable of pushing down to 7 nm and even 5 nm. It is also ridiculous to have such fantasies since TSMC is a Taiwanese operation and not an American or European operation. So in reality, Chinese have already reached the bleeding edge and are making money from it. It is not legitimate to claim Taiwan as some Caucasian achievement.

[bochen777]

It's too late for America to sabotage China's semiconductor industry. It has reached critical mass over 10 years ago and is now basically at the leading edge. Both in terms of custom CPU design and high resolution lithography. Only chauvinist, hubris filled windbags would have fantasies that China is not capable of pushing down to 7 nm and even 5 nm. It is also ridiculous to have such fantasies since TSMC is a Taiwanese operation and not an American or European operation. So in reality, Chinese have already reached the bleeding edge and are making money from it. It is not legitimate to claim Taiwan as some Caucasian achievement.

TSMC uses ASML EUV eqiupment which in turn has US components such as the lasers, etc... ASML is just a systems integrator like Lenovo etc... But TSMC is nothing without the EUV machines that it buys from ASML

China screwed up on this one, they should have seen this move coming half a decade ago.... US already sabotaged Chinese efforts, back in 2018 Chinese purchased state of art EUV machines from ASML, CIA set fire to the factory and destroyed the unit before it could be delivered, then pressured the Dutch gov not to renew any export licenses to China....

Now China has to play catch up big time, and Trumps move cost China loss of several years of tech advancement and many billions if not trillions of dollars all things considered...

But one thing is 3nm will be the end of road, esp if lose access to Chinese market, anything under 5nm will never be profitable nevermind its pumping up against moores law death, quantum tunneling effects etc... weve reached deminishing returns, progress in silicon based transistor slowing down so it gives China a little extra time to catch up...

Worst case if China cannot crack it, take over the TSMC fabs in China mainland, and sent some DengFong to flatten the ones in Tiawan.. it will take the US 3 years at least to set up the fab in AZ. If China cannot have access to 5nm chips then it can evening the playing field to make sure no one earth in the world does either, which buys it time to catch up...

In the long run if China recovers from this setback, the Amerikkkan semiconductor industry is gonna get fucked, and they got no one to blame for this except Orange man

[dissident]

Even if it uses ASML equipment it is still not a western show horse. And there is no lithography tech that China cannot develop on its own. That is how far down the road it is. Back in the 1970s the US could turn the technology on and off with the flick of a switch. Those days are long gone.

And 5 nm is not going to give anyone any critical advantage. It is the absolute limit for any existing IC designs and carries a serious error rate. There will never be a 3 nm generation since it is at the edge of the molecular cluster limit. One can't talk about bulk material properties below 3 nm. No amount of tricks will make this noisy state of matter behave like the predictable continuum limit. A transistor that spontaneously turns on and off is not worth much for classical ICs. Perhaps quantum computer components can leverage molecular cluster limit scales but that is yet to be demonstrated.

[Ayoob]

Trump isn't even smart enough to know not to take hydroxychloroquine. Believe me, none of this has to do with some sort of calculated limits-to-growth strategy.

This one aged well.

[REAL Green]

“Poor drag anchor as Xi turns the economic ship”
https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/poor-drag ... omic-ship/
“President Xi Jinping has coined the term “internal circulation” to sum up his new drive to fire up domestic consumption, including the painful destocking for many manufacturers when export-oriented products must be sold at home. Some cadres appear to have been lulled into believing that pent-up demand is being unleashed amid a nationwide shopping binge, when cashed-up holiday crowds return to throng boutique stores and commercial precincts the moment they can get out and about again. An imminent post-Covid consumption boom soon became the consensus of Xi and other top leaders until the premier made a shocking revelation about how many Chinese had been living on a meager income. Li Keqiang gave a sobering reminder, at a press conference following the conclusion of this year’s parliamentary session in May, that roughly 600 million Chinese – half the population – were eking out a living with a monthly income of 1,000 yuan (US$150) or less in 2019. “One cannot even pay his rent with the money if he lives in a big city, let alone spend to improve his life or buy these export products to help manufacturers,” the premier said at the event that was broadcast live nationwide. The need for China to shift growth from exports to consumption has become more urgent than ever, but the No. 2 Chinese leader asked: What if there were hundreds of millions of wage-earners who had been furloughed or had their income cut and had no money to spend?”

[dirtyharry]

Well,seems Trump bit more than he could chew . Only 2 working days to countdown .
Beijing Says Would Rather See TikTok's US Business Shuttered Than Sale "Forced" By Trump
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beiji ... rced-trump

[bochen787]

USA just started Opium War 3.0 and Full Iron Curtain against China

Knifes out and ready to carve China up again

https://mobile.twitter.com/CarlZha/stat ... 7258139650

[bochen787]

Trump wants to rape China three ways to Sunday

USA just started Opium War 3.0 and Full Iron Curtain against China

Knifes out and ready to carve China up again

https://mobile.twitter.com/CarlZha/stat ... 7258139650


.....


US is forcing TikTok US to sell to Oracle then turning around and kicking Tiktok international off the app stores, clearing the room for US TikTok to dominate worldwide, China goes to build its own app store, US sanctions all entities that associates or works with China app store after kicking out Chinese apps from Apple and Google app store.

On top of it, US says any nation that blocks US companies or US apps will be sanctioned and justification for invasion.... like Iraq, Afghan, Libya, Syria, Bolivia, Lebanon, etc etc

Trump is also banning WeChat and Alipay worldwide by removing them from Apple and Google App stores internationally, not just from US. US also sanctions any firm that publishes a version of their app to any Chinese app store.

They also want to force Huawei HiSilicon to sell to Qualcomm and to install a US companyman to board of all Chinese tech companies, and all Chinese telecom companies must submit to US audit and monitoring even within mainland China itself, and China must permanently remove its Great Firewall in addition must give all US companies complete and unfettered access to Chinese markets

[asg70]

Is this a new account? Did you get banned already? Someone IP ban you.

[bochen787]

Is this a new account? Did you get banned already? Someone IP ban you.

No, I had this account since 2006... back in the LATOC days....
There is a lunatic on here keeps accusing me of being JuanP
I have been on PO way before JuanP

=====

Trump plans to trick Modi into helping the US attack China by promising India that after China has collapsed that India will take its place… So Modi sacrifices a bunch of soldiers in the LAC and intentionally pokes China to defend itself, thereby starting a regional war. This gives Uncle Sam the pretext it needs to ramp up even more heavily in the SCS, and then Amerikkka does a false flag event in the SCS to further escalate, allowing it to declare war on China, and that is when Tiawan takes the oppurunity to declare independence. Now its three against one and China has to content with India on its west, SCS situation and a rogue Tiawan situation… at this precise moment Trump kicks China out of SWIFT, chokes China of all processor chips and semiconductors, and then release a far more deadly virus (compared to COVID) in the heartland of China, along with mininuking the Three Gorges Dam by targeting it with satellite from space, and a high level EMP to wipe out China’s electric grid while gettings it vassals (Korea, Japan, Phillipines, etc etc) to cut China’s underground sea cables, thereby effectively severing it from the communication/internet of the outside world… when China is down, blind, deaf and scrambling is when the US does a strategic nuclear first strike to decapitate the CCP before it has chance to retailate with its own nukes…

Given Trump’s actions so far in 2020, I fully expect the rest of 2020 to play out like this….

Chinese government if you are reading this, when it doubt, better to use the DF-41 while you still can… if Amerikkka wants to continue to do scorched earth, and lose lose, lets get it over with…

USA is going to get a bunch of nations to gang up on China and carve out China yet once again, this is history repeating itself in the form of Opium War 3.0, the Second Coming of the Eight Nation Alliance... once US strikes China, all Chinese Americans living in America (and possible all other Five Eye nations) will get rounded up into concentration camps and gassed to death... this will be the extermination of the Chinese race/civilazation from the face of the earth, Trump, Pompeo, Cotton, Bannon, etc all wet dreams will come true. The CIA false flag biovirus planted to frame China in Wuhan was basically an international version of The Chinese Exclusion Act 2.0 and the seeds of preparing the whole world to turn on China and accept the Amerikkkan lead extermination of all things Chinese.....