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THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Mon 13 Nov 2023, 19:22:57

Newfie wrote:Maybe Xi's interest in Greek history explaines his leadership style.
Much more suited to a technological stable situation than to one where it is moving rapidly.

No leader has transformed a country so quickly from the 3rd world to the first world.

Thats what scares Sparta
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 13 Nov 2023, 19:30:42

I think you have that backwards.

The upsurge was the result of previous leadership management. It took Xi years to dismantle that system.

This kind of thing often happens inbthe US. It takes at least a couple of years for 5he new President's policies to have discernable effect.

China is already on a strong downward slope, they passed their peak quite a while ago. Even MSM is now picking up on the obvious.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 13 Nov 2023, 19:41:15

According to one source, they lifted 800 million out of poverty due to a 7-pct ave. economic growth rate across decades, using a variation of the East Asian Miracle started by Japan. Other countries have been doing similar, and they now include VIP: Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Some say similar has been taking place among the Global South, as seen in Next 11, EAGLE, MINT, and so on.

The U.S. cannot accept this because it's dependent on the dollar used as a global reserve currency, which in turn allows it to take on incredible levels of debt, such as almost $8 trillion in addition to public debt from Trump and almost $5 trillion from Biden, not to mention around $12 trillion in unaudited bailouts to the rich via Dubya and Obama. Much of that debt is used to pay for a very expensive military needed to ensure that dependence, among others.

That's why the U.S. media, 90 pct of which is owned by six corporations, needs to keep up the attacks on China and Russia plus cheerlead each conflict involving the U.S. and its NATO allies.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Mon 13 Nov 2023, 20:09:23

Their fast trains are a technological miracle and the scale of roll out is nothing short of outstanding
The speed at which they can go from no aircraft carrier to having one is pretty impressive they will have more soon
Then highways airports and cities

The efficiency of a Communist System utilised, were plans are drawn and target are met in short periods of times with no change of plan every few years,that democracy and the free market brings.

Sparta would be worried what happens in the next few decades

Only a war can stop this progress
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 13 Nov 2023, 20:58:17

Let's bookmark this and come back in 10 years.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Mon 13 Nov 2023, 21:58:05

Newfie wrote:Let's bookmark this and come back in 10 years.


For the hot war ?

China will eventually make their own chips and then its game over.
The only way to slow them down is to get them to waste money defending themselves and close down their markets and try and shift Western manufacturing to India and destabilise all the Stans their rail lines run through and stir up some troubles with their Pacific Neighbours and stir up their middle class with a bit of economic contraction.

Need to have a stable Sparta to do this though
When the choice is Trump or Biden it suggest democracy isnt in a great place
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 14 Nov 2023, 20:22:23

From last September:

"Huawei’s chip breakthrough poses new threat to Apple in China — and questions for Washington"

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/huaweis ... china.html

Also, in Sparta, the weak were enslaved or killed.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 29 Mar 2024, 16:03:28

What would happen if China invaded Taiwian? One mans opinion.

https://substack.com/app-link/post?publ ... g_ovavKzhk
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 29 Mar 2024, 21:35:49

Invading its own province....
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 30 Mar 2024, 09:22:37

ralfy wrote:Invading its own province....


Have you noticed how the propaganda is moderating though?
Fortress Taiwan: Why a Chinese Invasion is Unlikely, but not Impossible
A couple of years ago it would have been
Fortress Taiwan: Why a Chinese Invasion is highly Unlikely.

It's probably what's behind the push to get the semiconductor tech rolling again.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 30 Mar 2024, 09:42:24

What about China slipping into an economic nightmare? Xi is always keeping ahead of the revolution. There could be one. More possible may be that the economy could take down Xi. The people's collective suffering being enough to organize them.

China could be left beheaded and looking to Taiwan for leadership.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 30 Mar 2024, 19:48:22

Good one Evil.

I had not thought of that but possible I suppose.

If you think about leadership for a moment....

China has one man rule, supposed he has cut out anyone with leads hip quality to threaten him.

Putin in Russia has done something very similar.

The USA has a clear leadership vacum.. Trump has demonstrated his ability to pass off or fire anyone with an original thought. Biden has selected Harris for VP.

While unlikely it is possible you could see China and Russia loose their leaders and the USA end up with Harris or Trump, 2 different forms of disfunction. All at the same time. Good grief Batman.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 30 Mar 2024, 21:58:21

China is facing economic crisis together with various industrialized countries. In many ways, what it's going through is similar to that of Japan across more than two decades. The U.S. is exceptional because it can borrow and spend heavily (which is what it has been doing since the early 1980s), but that's dependent on the dollar used as global reserve currency. Meanwhile, BRICS and the Global South are slowing moving away from that and creating a multipolar global economy.

What about Taiwan? It was under a dictatorship for four decades and industrialized because of that. The same dictatorship was doing business with China while accepting outsourcing from the U.S. and others that were moving to service industries.

Recently, the U.S. declared that it would not recognize Taiwanese sovereignty in order to continue appeasing China. Meanwhile, the latter is moving towards more manufacture of semiconductors but outsourcing (which according to sources like the Economist started almost two decades ago, as around 50 pct of its manufacturing is assembly) to the Global South while buying or investing in South Asia, South America, Australia, New Zealand, and so on.
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