[Daniel_Plainview]

From May 2010:

Cantarell Finally Slips Below 500 kbpd

As you can see from the chart, Cantarell Crude Oil Production 2008 – 2010, Mexico’s single giant finally slipped below 500 thousand barrels per day of production in May, to 499,286 kbpd. It’s still pretty astonishing to reflect that just two years ago, Cantarell was still producing a million barrels per day. The Mexican government, like the average layperson, continues to trade publicly in the idea that some new discovery could occur in Mexico that would alter the country’s production decline. But unlike the layperson, PEMEX knows better. (Indeed, insider reports on PEMEX indicate they’ve known for years).

link

chart

That's astonishing.



Thanks to peak oil, in a matter of months Mexico will experience the full brunt of TSHTF. The US had better hire more border patrols. Of course, given that estimates of Alaska's reserves have been slashed by 90%, the US's dependence on foreign oil will soon reach critical mass ....

[Mesuge]

The theoretical groundwork for 2000s was laid down in mid 1990s, all these now famous euroasia bound blitzkrieg "predicitions", efectivelly state policy doctrine stipulations published by Brezinski and neocons. All went alive on election fraud 2000, 9/11 2001, invasions into Iraq, Afghanistan and the former CCCP-stans, upgrade of mil./naval installations in the gulf, Africacom command center, and what have you,..

However, if you see the brutal plot for Cantarell, it's beyond doubt, this was not about the empire survival, or the simplistic opportunity looting the treasury blind. Most likely the primary motive of all this was rather based on individual, very selected group survival panic mode mentality. They happened to have all the means of control at hand to easily pull it off, lets call it Operation: My genepool for ever, bitchez. Or effectively, secured kingdoms for my offsprings at least for a couple of next centuries. Who would resist?

The sight of shock from the speed of light societal transition into gloves off neofeudal world order, applicable for most of the 7bln. planet inhabitants will be something to remember. And it's just around the corner.

[TheDude]

Monthly updates for PEMEX may be had at SIE :: Sistema de Información Energética. This is Spanish only, follow these steps:

>Información Estadística
>HIDROCARBUROS
>Petróleo crudo
>Producci¥n de petr¥leo crudo en campos seleccionados
="Production of petrleo crude in selected fields"

Cantarell won't crash to zero, don't be ridiculous. Last year's decline was only 131 kb/d YOY, versus 400-450 previously. Big fields in the twilight of their production still produce some tens of thousands of barrels. PEMEX's very rash EOR program has forced the field through a wide swath of its decline, after which production is declining at a gentler rate. Mexico could very well be a net importer soon, though.

[cualcrees]

Here´s another link from Pemex: (PDF document)

As of October, Cantarell is producing 471kb/d

http://www1.pep.pemex.com/Reportes/List ... %20PEP.pdf

[Daniel_Plainview]

As of October, Cantarell is producing 471kb/d

Already down to a mere 471,000 bbl/day. The cornies must be shitting in their pants.

[copious.abundance]

and extrapolating its apparently linear decline, it will be around zero by the end of 2010.

And:

As of October, Cantarell is producing 471kb/d

Either:

1. 471,000 = 0, or
2. It being near the end of 2010, another doomer prediction has gone bust.

Since #1 can be mathematically proven to be false, #2 must be the correct answer.

[dolanbaker]

and extrapolating its apparently linear decline, it will be around zero by the end of 2010.

And:

As of October, Cantarell is producing 471kb/d

Either:

1. 471,000 = 0, or
2. It being near the end of 2010, another doomer prediction has gone bust.

Since #1 can be mathematically proven to be false, #2 must be the correct answer.

Granted it didn't crash like a Stuka as the "mad max" doomers were expecting, but you can't "hide the decline", it won't be long before the output will be for domestic use only.

[Cid_Yama]

In many older oil fields, companies inject gas to keep the pressure in the wells high and the oil flowing. In the case of Cantarell, Mexico injected vast quantities of nitrogen in the past few years. But the gas can only do so much, and using it means the decline in production can be sudden and sharp. In the case of Cantarell, which lies in the shallow waters of the Gulf, experts say that seawater is fast invading the wells.

link

The days when you could find a supergiant oil field while fishing are over. Cantarell came late, in the oil age. That meant this global giant would receive all the best doctoring modern technology could provide. The result is that Cantarell was pumped out effectively and hard, especially after the technique to re-pressurize the field was adopted. This allowed for a spike high of daily production to be captured for several years, late in its life when a field would otherwise go into gentle decline. The result? Quicker monetization of the oil for the benefit of the Mexican state. But then the price: a catastrophic, fast crash.

link

Cantarell was second largest field in the world behind Ghawar. 2 yrs ago it was producing over a million barrels a day. It has now fast crashed, as had been predicted for wells in which enhanced recovery was used.

Yes the decline has flattened somewhat over the last year, but at 400,000 barrels a day, and with seawater invading the well, within months it will no longer be cost effective and will be, for all practical purposes, dead.

Mexico is NOW a net importer. Yes, they claimed it is to increase refinery efficiency, but we see the numbers. We know the real reason.

The death of the supergiants is at hand, and there is nothing to replace them.

[DoomersUnite]

C'mon folks. This is PeakOil.com. The Death of Cantarell should be big news. Even if they are trying to hide it, WE should know.

Cantarell isn't dead. So it isn't big news, because it ain't happened yet. And who is WE, people who spend their time posting on internet forums who don't actually know much about the oil business, otherwise known as "those people who know that the death of a field begins the same day as it starts producing"?

[Newfie]

Operation: My genepool for ever, bitchez. Or effectively, secured kingdoms for my offsprings at least for a couple of next centuries. Who would resist?

Ocams Razor?

"the simplest explanation is usually the correct one."

Darwinian selection, simple, yet powerful.

[Cid_Yama]

Cantarell went from 2.1 million barrels a day in 2003 to 400 thousand barrels a day in in October 2010.

That 1.7 million barrels a day that has been lost used to go to the US. That is a permanent loss. Mexico's next biggest field is only producing 700,000 barrels a day.

From March 2009:

Pemex continues to shut in wells at Cantarell that produce too much natural gas or water. As the oil layer of the reservoir recedes after decades of exploitation, wells higher up start to pump natural gas, while wells lower down extract more water.

Pemex has invested in infrastructure to separate the gas and water from the oil, but it is still insufficient.

link

From June 2009:

Pemex engineers said at a conference last week that the oil layer of the Akal field is shrinking by at least 4 meters (13 feet) a month as gas moves downward and water moves upward in the rock formation.

Contraction of the oil layer means many of the traditional vertical wells Pemex has used to drain Cantarell since the late 1970s are getting flooded by gas or water, which forces their closure.

link

In 2008, Pemex expected Cantarell's decline to continue to 2012 and eventually stabilizing at an output level of around 500,000 barrels per day (80,000 m3/d). By September 2009 this figure was already achieved, marking one of the most dramatic declines ever seen in the oil industry.

link

Mexico is now a net IMPORTER of oil. The US has lost one of it's top 3 suppliers.(the others Saudi Arabia and Canada)

[Newfie]

A person thrives on 2,000 calories per day.

At 500 calories per day it is only time before they are dead.

Can you see the connection????

[Newfie]

A person thrives on 2,000 calories per day.

At 500 calories per day it is only time before they are dead.

Can you see the connection????

Arguing that Cantarell is not dead because it is still producing something is a pedantic argument and not productive to understanding systems.

We can crowd around the sick bed until the last gasp is drawn and the "Time of Death" duly noted in the medical log............or we can see the inevitable and take appropriate action. But to wail "He's not dead yet, don't bury him while still alive." is an emotional action of denial.

While I feel sorry for your pending loss, and truly feel your pain, you need to think to the future and plan for when you have to do without.

Good luck.

[Daniel_Plainview]

A person thrives on 2,000 calories per day.

At 500 calories per day it is only time before they are dead.

Can you see the connection????

Arguing that Cantarell is not dead because it is still producing something is a pedantic argument and not productive to understanding systems.

We can crowd around the sick bed until the last gasp is drawn and the "Time of Death" duly noted in the medical log............or we can see the inevitable and take appropriate action. But to wail "He's not dead yet, don't bury him while still alive." is an emotional action of denial.

While I feel sorry for your pending loss, and truly feel your pain, you need to think to the future and plan for when you have to do without.

Good luck.

Who are you directing this post to? (sorry, it's not clear to me)

[DoomersUnite]

A person thrives on 2,000 calories per day.

At 500 calories per day it is only time before they are dead.

Can you see the connection????

If you applied your analogy to human energy consumption, you would be correct. But it doesn't work because the oil analogy goes like this.

A person thrives while consuming 2000 calories a day, 1500 of which comes from MacDonalds.

When McDonalds is removed from the caloric intake, they switch to Burger King, and continue to thrive at a caloric intake of 2000/day. Total energy might be a zero sum game, oil consumption most certainly is not.

[Cid_Yama]

There is no burger king to switch to. Discovery peaked in the 1960's. There are no supergiants available to replace the ones that are exhausted.

That is the point.

Oil is a finite resource and we've used up most of it.

You are no different than climate change deniers who won't believe global warming is real until they personally suffer on account of it.

And just like climate change, there is nothing to be done except mitigation.

Adaptation to an oil free world will be a lot easier while there is still oil. If you wait until it's gone, you have collapse instead of mitigation.

Civilization is in it's last decade or so. Between oil depletion, climate change, and the degradation of of the permafrost cap on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, few, if any, will come out the other side.

[Mesuge]

When McDonalds is removed from the caloric intake, they switch to Burger King, and continue to thrive at a caloric intake of 2000/day. Total energy might be a zero sum game, oil consumption most certainly is not.

This is not applicable in the cold winter of the forthcomming export land model effects on global scale. Newfie nailed it quite eloquently. It was almost like from GM EV1 funeral, or shall we say GovMotors Volt funeral speech?

[mos6507]

GovMotors Volt funeral speech?

What funeral speech? The first Volts will roll off the assembly line on November 30th? Do you need them to run over your forehead before you believe people will be able to buy them?

[Lore]

GovMotors Volt funeral speech?

What funeral speech? The first Volts will roll off the assembly line on November 30th? Do you need them to run over your forehead before you believe people will be able to buy them?

Then again, there is a bit of a point here, I’m not sure there will be a lot of people in the near future able to qualify to buy a $41,000 Volt. Certainly giant dead oil fields will box people into fewer and fewer choices.

[gollum]

GovMotors Volt funeral speech?

What funeral speech? The first Volts will roll off the assembly line on November 30th? Do you need them to run over your forehead before you believe people will be able to buy them?

Then again, there is a bit of a point here, I’m not sure there will be a lot of people in the near future able to qualify to buy a $41,000 Volt. Certainly giant dead oil fields will box people into fewer and fewer choices.

People like to drive a lot in this country. If buying a Volt, Leaf, or another hybrid will allow them to do that I think a good share of them will trim the fat in other places. There's a lot of reason to be pessimistic about the next couple of decades from declining super giants to absolute inability of government to even see the scale of the problem. The Volt, Leaf, and conventional hybrids are one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dim situation.
Off the subject a twenty something girl at work was quite impressed with the new Chevy Cruze. If a mid twenties girl likes a Chevy I'd say that GM may be on their way back to a real recovery. I suspect that for every Volt sold there will be 5 Cruze's sold, which create American jobs and will still get nearly 40 MPG on the highway.