[TheDude]

There’s this talk of trashing the electrical distribution grid. Fat chance. You’ll get a gas grid though.

What would happen to NG prices with widespread implementation, too? Presumably residential customers would still need gas for heating and some additional for the BBs, but the power generation sector would find itself kneecapped. I don't think they'll take something like that lying down.

But at any rate this could just be more of the same old euphoria. Is K.R. Sridhar’s 'magic box' ready for prime time? - Fortune Brainstorm Tech

Google told Fortune that it has a 400 kilowatt installation from Bloom at its headquarters in Mountain View, California. But the real test, analysts say, is whether Google feels confident enough to use Bloom boxes to power its vast server farms upon which its business depends.

“I definitely think Bloom is over-hyped,” says Jacob Grose, senior analyst at Lux Research, which specializes in emerging technologies, though he stresses that he hasn’t seen the soon-to-be-unveiled Bloom box. “What Bloom offers does not seem to be unique – other fuel-cell companies are doing very similar things. The real question is whether Bloom has unlocked the secret of how to make these things cheap, and I’m very skeptical of that.”

One company that Grose points to as offering a similar product – sans the media circus – is Fuel Cell Energy, Inc., a small firm based in Danbury, Connecticut that went public in 1992 and has over 60 fuel-cell installations worldwide at companies ranging from Pepperidge Farm to Westin Hotels. Like Bloom, it also hasn’t figured out how to make money, losing $71 million last year on revenues of $88 million.

Thanks for the 10 things link, TAD.

[shortonsense]

By the way shorty, the $100,000 dollar hydrogen setup I quote is only the residential version.

Thats the version this guy built.

[shortonsense]

15 years of supply arriving last month.

And the logic you choose completely fails because there is no measure of what the production rate of those 15 years of resource will be.

Absolutely true. I calculated it EXACTLY the same way the average Doomer does...I took the amount and divided by consumption.

Doomers proclaiming every time someone finds a billion barrels of oil that "its only 12 days of oil!!" almost never are chided for such a ridiculous calculation...I assumed it was just as much of a math calculation as the average Doomer could understand. Present company such as yourself obviously excluded.

It IS about flow rates and production capability, you just haven't been hit upside the head with it yet..not quite....but it's coming.

Hey..I'm with ya, I say we go on a rampage against ignorant Doomer calculations straight across the board. Start a thread and count me in!

[TheAntiDoomer]

In order to make his system affordable and prolific, he must come up with a new type of catalyst that is abundant and affordable.

Ummm, hasn't this been the problem with fuel cells for decades, rare and expensive catalysts? So he's not using rare-earth metals but is using some other secret and expensive catalyst. Then this is not really the revolutionary breakthrough in fuel cells that we needed to make them affordable and mass produced.[/quote]

Kub, Nowhere have I read has he said that the catalyst is expensive, in fact he hinted several times that it is plentiful. Of course this part he's going to keep somewhat secret, you don't expect him to give away his secret sauce???

[TheAntiDoomer]

What would happen to NG prices with widespread implementation, too? Presumably residential customers would still need gas for heating and some additional for the BBs, but the power generation sector would find itself kneecapped. I don't think they'll take something like that lying down.

Dude, this question was answered in the report. He said they see the utilities as customers not rivals. So the electrical distributors will buy bloom boxes, distribute then in neighborhoods and sell the electricity to customers.

[Dezakin]

What would happen to NG prices with widespread implementation, too? Presumably residential customers would still need gas for heating and some additional for the BBs, but the power generation sector would find itself kneecapped. I don't think they'll take something like that lying down.

Dude, this question was answered in the report. He said they see the utilities as customers not rivals. So the electrical distributors will buy bloom boxes, distribute then in neighborhoods and sell the electricity to customers.

Or they can buy combined cycle turbines for lower capital cost per MW and higher thermodynamic efficiency. This is all hype and no substance. I'm sure it will have some niche applications, but this is not going to replace any significant chunk of infrastructure.

[TheAntiDoomer]

What would happen to NG prices with widespread implementation, too? Presumably residential customers would still need gas for heating and some additional for the BBs, but the power generation sector would find itself kneecapped. I don't think they'll take something like that lying down.

Dude, this question was answered in the report. He said they see the utilities as customers not rivals. So the electrical distributors will buy bloom boxes, distribute then in neighborhoods and sell the electricity to customers.

Or they can buy combined cycle turbines for lower capital cost per MW and higher thermodynamic efficiency. This is all hype and no substance. I'm sure it will have some niche applications, but this is not going to replace any significant chunk of infrastructure.

Huh? The bloom box if works as advertised has no moving parts and requires less and more simple maintenance. Bloom also claims a much higher efficiency than traditional gas turbines, and you think people are going to have traditional gas turbines in their neighborhood??

[Dezakin]

What would happen to NG prices with widespread implementation, too? Presumably residential customers would still need gas for heating and some additional for the BBs, but the power generation sector would find itself kneecapped. I don't think they'll take something like that lying down.

Dude, this question was answered in the report. He said they see the utilities as customers not rivals. So the electrical distributors will buy bloom boxes, distribute then in neighborhoods and sell the electricity to customers.

Or they can buy combined cycle turbines for lower capital cost per MW and higher thermodynamic efficiency. This is all hype and no substance. I'm sure it will have some niche applications, but this is not going to replace any significant chunk of infrastructure.

Huh? The bloom box if works as advertised has no moving parts and requires less and more simple maintenance. Bloom also claims a much higher efficiency than traditional gas turbines, and you think people are going to have traditional gas turbines in their neighborhood??

Bloom is flat out lying if he claims a much higher efficiency than gas turbines. Carnot efficiency and the heat of combustion of natural gas places hard limits on the efficiency of conversion of natural gas. Sure the claims are low capital cost, but you have to go damned low to compete with natural gas combined cycle turbines.

[yesplease]

Fuel cells aren't constrained by the Carnot cycle limits wrt efficiency. Realistically combined cycle nat gas generation is going to be around 40%, and the best ceramic fuel cells are around 60%. I dunno where this one is, but at the very least it's not impossible for it to be above what combined cycle nat gas plants are at.

[shortonsense]

Actually, I'm working at home right now, watching the Olympics (1) , just finished some light reading in the ANOVA section of "Analysis of Data, Introductory Statistics for the Behavorial Sciences" by Senter (2), and occasionally checking via VPN on a weekend long datarun (10 hours and 1/3 finished ), (3) while designing a next generation data scan algorithm for some time series data I've been asked to examine (4)

Wow! A computer weenie. When are you moving to Mumbai?

I'm not. And no, I'm not a computer weenie. But they are wonderful at solving problems of an iterative nature.

[Dezakin]

Fuel cells aren't constrained by the Carnot cycle limits wrt efficiency.

Yes they are. They're limited by the gibbs free energy of the reactants, which is often simplified as the temperature of combustion. Carnot limits apply to all thermodynamic processes.

Realistically combined cycle nat gas generation is going to be around 40%, and the best ceramic fuel cells are around 60%. I dunno where this one is, but at the very least it's not impossible for it to be above what combined cycle nat gas plants are at.

Combined cycle plants are well above 40%, they're often in the range of 55-60%. 40% and you're down in steam cycles.

[IslandCrow]

This thread got my interest and I tried to find more information. One thing I came across related to the financial calculations. I know it is still early days and the first units usually cost a lot more than later ones, but there seems to be a long long way to go.

To get a view of the cost and benefits, eBay installed 5 of the boxes nine months ago. It says it has saved $100,000 USD on energy since. So assuming the maximum cost -- $4M USD -- the investment on a Bloom Box would appear to take 30 years to recoup. EBay says the five boxes generate more clean energy than the company's 3,000 solar panels (assuming a bulk cost of $200/panel, and additional expense that system would run around $1M USD, at a minimum). Given those numbers the Bloom Box certainly doesn't appear to be cheaper than solar power, though it claims to be.

http://www.dailytech.com/Is+the+Magic+Alternative+Energy+Bloom+Box+for+Real/article17752.htm

[kublikhan]

In order to make his system affordable and prolific, he must come up with a new type of catalyst that is abundant and affordable.

Ummm, hasn't this been the problem with fuel cells for decades, rare and expensive catalysts? So he's not using rare-earth metals but is using some other secret and expensive catalyst. Then this is not really the revolutionary breakthrough in fuel cells that we needed to make them affordable and mass produced.

Kub, Nowhere have I read has he said that the catalyst is expensive, in fact he hinted several times that it is plentiful. Of course this part he's going to keep somewhat secret, you don't expect him to give away his secret sauce???

The quote I posted above implies the catalyst is neither abundant not affordable. At any rate, these units cost $800,000 each. This is not cheap. We already have cheaper ways of generating electricity than this. This is an expensive way to generate electricity, and it is neither green nor renewable.

[TheAntiDoomer]

In order to make his system affordable and prolific, he must come up with a new type of catalyst that is abundant and affordable.

Ummm, hasn't this been the problem with fuel cells for decades, rare and expensive catalysts? So he's not using rare-earth metals but is using some other secret and expensive catalyst. Then this is not really the revolutionary breakthrough in fuel cells that we needed to make them affordable and mass produced.

Kub, Nowhere have I read has he said that the catalyst is expensive, in fact he hinted several times that it is plentiful. Of course this part he's going to keep somewhat secret, you don't expect him to give away his secret sauce???

The quote I posted above implies the catalyst is neither abundant not affordable. At any rate, these units cost $800,000 each. This is not cheap. We already have cheaper ways of generating electricity than this. This is an expensive way to generate electricity, and it is neither green nor renewable.

kub, that quote was from the skeptic! not the inventor! the inventor stated that the materials are plentiful!

[kublikhan]

Realistically combined cycle nat gas generation is going to be around 40%, and the best ceramic fuel cells are around 60%. I dunno where this one is, but at the very least it's not impossible for it to be above what combined cycle nat gas plants are at.

Combined cycle plants are well above 40%, they're often in the range of 55-60%. 40% and you're down in steam cycles.

How do the CO2 emissions compare to a conventional power plant?
According to NaturalGas.org, efficiencies for a utility scale gas fired power plant are on the order of 33% for a classic steam plant to about 55% for a combined heat and power plant. With transmission losses of about 7%, that gives net efficiencies of 26% to 48%. So the Bloom Box is at worst on a par with a conventional power plant, and at best twice as efficient.

Answering-the-Unanswered-Questions

Ick. When they claimed they were twice as efficient as natural gas they were talking about a classic steam plant not a combined cycle plant. The efficiency of this fuel cell is comparable to a combined cycle plant, slightly better if you factor in losses from transmission.

kub, that quote was from the skeptic! not the inventor! the inventor stated that the materials are plentiful!

What are the Catalysts made from?
The Bloom technology is a solid oxide fuel cell. it does not need a catalyst to work. In a solid oxide cell a ceramic membrane, usually made from zirconium oxide, allows oxygen ions to travel through it, creating electricity in the process. If you put a fuel on one side and air on the other, the fuel will create an impetus for the oxygen in the air to move through the membrane, creating an ongoing reaction. Any fuel will work for this, so long as it has enough affinity for oxygen. The Platinum that Mr. Sridhar refers to as being needed is for temperature resistance. Ceramic membranes do not start to conduct oxygen until they get hot, usually more than 1300 degrees Fahrenheit. There are very few materials that will survive at those temperatures for long periods of time. Platinum is the safest choice for this.
The inks that Mr. Sridhar shows are for the electrodes that allow for collection of the current being produced as the oxygen travels through the membrane. These need to operate at high temperatures, collect all the electricity being generated AND allow oxygen to travel through them. It's understandable that these formulations are kept very secret.

Answering-the-Unanswered-Questions

I think that answers the catalyst question. I still think these things are expensive.

[yesplease]

There’s this talk of trashing the electrical distribution grid. Fat chance. You’ll get a gas grid though.

What would happen to NG prices with widespread implementation, too? Presumably residential customers would still need gas for heating and some additional for the BBs, but the power generation sector would find itself kneecapped. I don't think they'll take something like that lying down.

Gail on TOD pointed out it's not really competitive with wholesale electricity currently for someone who is buying natural gas from a ccompany. It's currently just a way for companies to bypass the tiered electricity pricing some states have. If they reduce costs enough, it may be able to replace batteries in off-grid use, and maybe even replace natural gas power plants, but currently it's just a way for companies to avoid the higher costs associated with higher use of electricity in some places.

[TheAntiDoomer]

Realistically combined cycle nat gas generation is going to be around 40%, and the best ceramic fuel cells are around 60%. I dunno where this one is, but at the very least it's not impossible for it to be above what combined cycle nat gas plants are at.

Combined cycle plants are well above 40%, they're often in the range of 55-60%. 40% and you're down in steam cycles.

How do the CO2 emissions compare to a conventional power plant?
According to NaturalGas.org, efficiencies for a utility scale gas fired power plant are on the order of 33% for a classic steam plant to about 55% for a combined heat and power plant. With transmission losses of about 7%, that gives net efficiencies of 26% to 48%. So the Bloom Box is at worst on a par with a conventional power plant, and at best twice as efficient.

Answering-the-Unanswered-Questions

Ick. When they claimed they were twice as efficient as natural gas they were talking about a classic steam plant not a combined cycle plant. The efficiency of this fuel cell is comparable to a combined cycle plant, slightly better if you factor in losses from transmission.

kub, that quote was from the skeptic! not the inventor! the inventor stated that the materials are plentiful!

What are the Catalysts made from?
The Bloom technology is a solid oxide fuel cell. it does not need a catalyst to work. In a solid oxide cell a ceramic membrane, usually made from zirconium oxide, allows oxygen ions to travel through it, creating electricity in the process. If you put a fuel on one side and air on the other, the fuel will create an impetus for the oxygen in the air to move through the membrane, creating an ongoing reaction. Any fuel will work for this, so long as it has enough affinity for oxygen. The Platinum that Mr. Sridhar refers to as being needed is for temperature resistance. Ceramic membranes do not start to conduct oxygen until they get hot, usually more than 1300 degrees Fahrenheit. There are very few materials that will survive at those temperatures for long periods of time. Platinum is the safest choice for this.
The inks that Mr. Sridhar shows are for the electrodes that allow for collection of the current being produced as the oxygen travels through the membrane. These need to operate at high temperatures, collect all the electricity being generated AND allow oxygen to travel through them. It's understandable that these formulations are kept very secret.

Answering-the-Unanswered-Questions

I think that answers the catalyst question. I still think these things are expensive.

Good find Kub, but of course they are expensive today, they are only making one a day! As with anything, once you are cranking these out on a assembly line the price will drop substantially.

[yesplease]

Fuel cells aren't constrained by the Carnot cycle limits wrt efficiency.

Yes they are. They're limited by the gibbs free energy of the reactants, which is often simplified as the temperature of combustion. Carnot limits apply to all thermodynamic processes.

A fuel cell isn't a heat engine. It doesn't convert heat into mechanical energy. Being limited by the Gibbs free energy isn't the same as being limited by the Carnot cycle.

NOTE: This efficiency can exceed the Carnot limit because the electrochemical process of the fuel cell does not involve conversion of thermal to mechanical energy!!

As Carnot's theorem only applies to heat engines, devices that convert the fuel's energy directly into work without burning it, such as fuel cells, can exceed the Carnot efficiency.

Realistically combined cycle nat gas generation is going to be around 40%, and the best ceramic fuel cells are around 60%. I dunno where this one is, but at the very least it's not impossible for it to be above what combined cycle nat gas plants are at.

Combined cycle plants are well above 40%, they're often in the range of 55-60%. 40% and you're down in steam cycles.

Realistically you could see real world efficiency in the high forties. On average, natural gas generation in the U.S. (Total generation versus total nat gas consumption) is in the low 40s in terms of efficiency IIRC.

[mos6507]

If they have to heat the ceramics before the reaction starts then that will steal efficiency away as well as require expensive thermal shielding (which you saw some of in the 60-minutes piece). Sounds almost like a Zebra molten-salt battery.