[dinopello]

Aren't we going to have to sell the whole kit and kaboodle (Alaska) to the Chinese anyway ? Better to hype up how much oil there is and how easy it will be to get now, pre-sale.

Either way, somebody is going to tap that oil since oil is so valuable. The questions relevent to public policy are who, when, what it is used for.

[Hawkcreek]

Monte does not mention that the Alaskan pipeline can move up to 2 MBPD & that it's half full now. Given the lack of shipping available, that means actual delivery of Alaskan crude can grow no greater than 1 MBPD.
Yawn

Actually, the pipeline can no longer move 2 MBPD. The new reconfiguration of the line limits flow to 1.15 MBPD. Existing flow now is about 700 KBPD.
With modifications (probably about 500 million dollars worth), flow could be upped to about 1.4 million a day. But I will bet that would never be needed, because as the oil flow depletes from Prudhoe, any flow from ANWR would just make up the difference. In order for ANWR to ever produce more than 1MPBD, the interconnect pipeline to the main line would have to be around 48 inches, with a couple of pump stations. That by itself would be a massive project.
I doubt that ANWR will ever be drilled, and I also doubt that a gas pipeline will ever be built from the slope.
If construction started tomorrow (which it won't because everyone will be nursing hangovers in Alaska tomorrow), it would still take 7-10 years before anyone ever saw the first oil or gas. I just don't see any company - or group of companies - being able to come up with the 100 billion dollars it would probably take to do those jobs.

[hillsidedigger]

The real question that should be asked is, what impact has the development of Prudhoe Bay fields had on the wildlife? Secondly is that level of impact acceptable for ANWR development?
If the answer is minimal and acceptable then drill, if the answers are otherwise then don't drill.

The Prudhoe Bay caribou herd tripled in size after development of the Prudhoe Bay oilfield and pipeline. Oil field development actually appears to be good for Alaskan Caribou.

My first response to this is the caribou's predators must have been run off so upsetting the predastor-prey cycle and that is not good.

[Hawkcreek]

My first response to this is the caribou's predators must have been run off so upsetting the predastor-prey cycle and that is not good.

Possible, but the only serious predators for the caribou in the past 30 years were the "barren ground grizzlies". There never were too many of them in the past, and there aren't many now. Since they don't migrate with the caribou, food is extremely limited whenever the caribou haven't reached the coastal plains, and that is probably why there aren't too many of them, not that they have been run off.
But a possible reason for the increase in caribou might be the warmer weather on the slope in the last 20 years.
It has devastated the Arctic fox population, because it is warm enough for the larger Red Fox to move north into their territory, and the reds are killing off the whites.
Some people might claim that is the fault of the oil companies too, since they think burning the oil is causing global warming.
Me, I don't know.

[larry00]

Once the trans Alaska pipeline is shut down it will be washed and disassembled and gone . Billions in 1960's dollars gone finis !

That will ensure ANWR which all ten people who have been there say is a Mosquito infested desolate place can keep it's billions of bbl's of crude and trillions of units of gas cause the expense of getting it to market would be too costly without tying in to the Trans Alaska pipeline !

We are really stupid people and no doubt deserve our fate ! What else is new !

Dwindling Oil Production Threatens To Blow The Trans-Alaska Pipeline by Joe Weisenthal, Dec. 27, 2009:
The 800-mile long trans-Alaska pipeline -- a key artery in our national oil infrastructure -- is on the verge of collapse owing to the decreased production out of Alaska's North Slope.
As with other key components of oil infrastructure, the pipeline does not do well then the flow slows to a trickle. Underutilization is a major problem.
The Seattle-Tacoma News Tribune (via The Oil Drum) has an interesting report on the situation there. …

Green Sheet

[hillsidedigger]

The opportunity is not all that huge.

Note - The pipeline was built with 1970's dollars.

[frankthetank]

Larry-

How many barrels are under there? How cheap can you drill that oil for? How long until you can get it flowing?

I have the feeling that it would have been drilled long ago if it was economically feasible and existed in great enough amounts. I have nothing against drilling up there... drill away!

[Ludi]

That will ensure ANWR which all ten people who have been there say is a Mosquito infested desolate place

Wow, neat! Ten people have been there! Go mosquitoes!

[hillsidedigger]

Larry-I have the feeling that it would have been drilled long ago if it was economically feasible and existed in great enough amounts. I have nothing against drilling up there... drill away!

I thinl that is also true about all the phantom offshore areas. If there was much oil in those places it would have been developed years ago.

[Schadenfreude11]

I thinl that is also true about all the phantom offshore areas. If there was much oil in those places it would have been developed years ago.

There is lots of Arctic oil, not at all cheap or easy to get at though. I think the political will is lacking as well, that should be overcome the next time oil gets matierally above $100 and the futility economy continues it's plunge into the 7th circle of hell.

[eastbay]

Has anyone considered saving it for later? Or are we all on the same page wanting to burn it all up as fast as we can?

[Schadenfreude11]

Has anyone considered saving it for later? Or are we all on the same page wanting to burn it all up as fast as we can?

Duly noted.

Unfortunately, the concept of 'later on' in a fast-food society built upon a infintile obsession with instant gratification is rather depressing.

I would be satified if we just even made an effort to use oil more intelligently.

[shortonsense]

I would be satified if we just even made an effort to use oil more intelligently.

+1

[hironegro]

or maybe should use energy more efficiently

[Homesteader]

The real question that should be asked is, what impact has the development of Prudhoe Bay fields had on the wildlife? Secondly is that level of impact acceptable for ANWR development?
If the answer is minimal and acceptable then drill, if the answers are otherwise then don't drill.

The Prudhoe Bay caribou herd tripled in size after development of the Prudhoe Bay oilfield and pipeline. Oil field development actually appears to be good for Alaskan Caribou.

My first response to this is the caribou's predators must have been run off so upsetting the predastor-prey cycle and that is not good.

Connecting Prudhoe Bay oil development to the growht of the caribou herd is preposterous. Caribou herds traditionally show dramatic increases and decreases for reasons not readily apparent to the biologists.

Here is a snip from an article on the state of caribou and reindeer herds worldwide:

Reindeer herds in global decline

"Vors and Mark Boyce at the University of Alberta contacted other researchers and scoured the published literature and government databases for all the information they could find about reindeer and caribou numbers. They compiled data on 58 major herds around the Northern Hemisphere.

The scientists were shocked to discover that 34 of the herds were declining, while no data existed for 16 more. Only eight herds were increasing in number. Many herds had been declining for a decade or more."

Link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_ne ... 094036.stm

[hillsidedigger]

"The Prudhoe Bay caribou herd tripled in size after development of the Prudhoe Bay oilfield and pipeline. Oil field development actually appears to be good for Alaskan Caribou."

That sounds like a statement of Sarah Palin.

[Hawkcreek]

"The Prudhoe Bay caribou herd tripled in size after development of the Prudhoe Bay oilfield and pipeline. Oil field development actually appears to be good for Alaskan Caribou."

That sounds like a statement of Sarah Palin.

Actually, it has been pretty obvious to anyone who has seen the herds up close that they increased in number since the early years of the development of the field. That is not a political statement. It is an eyewitness report.
I do seem to have noticed a decrease in numbers in the past couple of years, but for the first 20 years, at least, the numbers were increasing.
Maybe we reached Peak Caribou?
What is says to me is that the field development and the pipeline did not disrupt the herds. In fact, I have seen caribou standing in the shade of the pipeline to avoid mosquitos. To them, it is a natural feature of their environment.

[Homesteader]

I would agree that it appears that Prudhoe Bay development did not adversely affect the herd.

To claim it had a beneficial impact is just plain silly.

[larry00]

I'm assuming everyone is now aware Shell is for the umpteenth time is trying for permitting to drill in the Barents bay area in Alaska which would extend the Alaskan Pipeline for a while longer !
The Prudhoe North Slope is dwindling down at 7 percent per year .

The EPA turned down Shell's last try because they did not include a study of CO2 generated by a Ice Breaker needed in the winter time to keep supply flowing to rigs.
The nearest native village is 70 miles away but they natives al have a copy of Al Gores Movie " An Inconvenient Truth " , well the inconvenient part fits !
Like it or lump it there is no alternative to take the place of fossil fuels for at least thirty years !

Obama EPA just what is your plan to sustain our economy till that elusive replacement comes along ?
Would it be Grid busting electric cars using power generated by guess what ! Fossil fuels ?

I really feel bad about launching that Desert Dune Lizard into the stratosphere aboard my home made rocket when I lived in New Mexico in the 60's ! I was unable to catch a Kangaroo Rat !
Now I feel responcible for the possibility of shutting down drilling in the entire Permian Basin ! Jeez what a low life !
Thanks Obama ! I hope we remember those good old days of $ 3.00 gas come 2012 !

[Pops]

Larry you need to get out more to get this stuff off yer chest! Let the world know, Brother!

Don't get so worked up, we'll drill up there eventually, we'll drill everywhere and burn everything until the entire planet looks like an ad for Round-Up.

But let me clue you in, prices will never come down to levels like the good old days where you got your windshield washed, tires and oil checked and a free Melmac plate with every fill up.