[tita]

Here comes a new challenger...
So, low: 24$ (I just can't believe I'm predicting such a low value). There is absolutely no reason for price to sustain as long as the gap between demand/supply stays and inventories keep rising.
high: 72$ . The gap will disappear. Prices will slowly recover, with some highs in summer. OPEC (KSA mainly) will "adjust" his production to aim target price.
closing: 63$
average: 48$ 10$ above 2015

I may be wrong, and supply/demand won't balance in 2016 like IEA says, which would pressure prices under 40$ all the year. I expect higher fall in shale prod than 2015, and higher consumption than predicted by IEA.

[PeakOiler]

Here comes a new challenger...

Hello and welcome to our game of chance!

I'm curious why many of our previous players haven't made a challenge this year? Still considering your guesses? No money to win? LOL

[SteinarN]

I havent made a guess yet, I am still pondering what numbers I shall throw out

[wildbourgman]

High: 72
Low: 27
Ending: 68

[PeakOiler]

High: 72
Low: 27
Ending: 68

Hi and welcome to the game. Please make an estimate of the average price too. Thanks!

Reminder: Estimates can be changed before the deadline.

[vtsnowedin]

Here comes a new challenger...

Hello and welcome to our game of chance!

I'm curious why many of our previous players haven't made a challenge this year? Still considering your guesses? No money to win? LOL

There is no advantage to guessing much before the closing date. Last year my low guess was passed before the game had even started.

[vtsnowedin]

Here is my WAG.
Low 31.50
High 77.50
close 73.00
Years average 52.50

[PeakOiler]

There is no advantage to guessing much before the closing date. Last year my low guess was passed before the game had even started.

You had the opportunity to change your guesses before the deadline last year too. Why didn't you? I even reminded everyone (at least once) that players could do that! Other players did change their low guesses.

[PeakOiler]

Here's the updated spreadsheet:

[vtsnowedin]

There is no advantage to guessing much before the closing date. Last year my low guess was passed before the game had even started.

You had the opportunity to change your guesses before the deadline last year too. Why didn't you? I even reminded everyone (at least once) that players could do that! Other players did change their low guesses.

I knew all that but just wasn't paying attention on the last day. This year I expect you will get a lot of guesses and changes on the last day as experienced players use other peoples guesses and reasoning to fine tune their own calculations. There is so much at stake they will use every tool to win.

[PeakOiler]

There is no advantage to guessing much before the closing date. Last year my low guess was passed before the game had even started.

I did a quick review of the 2015 PO.com Oil Price Challenge thread and I saw that you did change your guesses before the deadline. But then you said that you would be "on the road" and couldn't make another change before the deadline. Hey, I'm a "laid-back" judge, and would probably have let you change your guess one more time as long as it wouldn't have been too far past the deadline!

[PeakOiler]

I knew all that but just wasn't paying attention on the last day. This year I expect you will get a lot of guesses and changes on the last day as experienced players use other peoples guesses and reasoning to fine tune their own calculations. There is so much at stake they will use every tool to win.

Exactly!

[Pops]

Since the rank appears reversed ATM, it's likely to be my best position on the chart the whole game, lol

[PeakOiler]

Since the rank appears reversed ATM, it's likely to be my best position on the chart the whole game, lol

Yes, the spreadsheet sort order is currently by "Overall Diff" then by "Name". It's reversed right now otherwise all of the players listed with an "Overall Diff" of $0.00 would appear at the top of the spreadsheet.

I'll be changing the sort order once we have the initial 2016 numbers.

[AgentR11]

High: $45 USD
Low: $25 USD
Avg: $35 USD
Close: $45 USD

[PeakOiler]

High: $45 USD
Low: $25 USD
Avg: $35 USD
Close: $45 USD

Welcome to our game. Good to see new players!

I'm still waiting for Tanada and ROCKMAN to make some guesses!

[Plantagenet]

I think I've done this game before but I'm not on the spreadsheet.

Please put me down for

HIGH 76.57
LOW 30.00
CLOSE 70.29

Thanks!

--Plantagenet

[davep]

It's a year where we'll either see KSA continue its policy of destroying higher break-even competitors or there'll be some conflagration taking the price to the moon. Even though the latter seems plausible in the current climate, I think we'll mainly see BAU.

High 57
Low 27
Close 45

Edit: reduced Low price due to sanctions being lifted on Iran in 2016.

[SeaGypsy]

High 52.50
Low 14.25
Close 48.00