[PeakOiler]

I have a question for the moderators. According to rule #7, (p.1), any member that is banned from po.com is disqualified and should be deleted from the scorecard.

Would a moderator please send me a PM telling me who has been banned and thus disqualified? Thanks! I'll update the scorecard if that's OK.

[salinsky]

I suppose I've been banned. Story of my life. I finally get to the highest point in my life as number one in The Oil Price Challenge and I get a cancer diagnosis and banned from po.com in the same week.
Sal

[SumYunGai]

I have a question for the moderators. According to rule #7, (p.1), any member that is banned from po.com is disqualified and should be deleted from the scorecard.

Would a moderator please send me a PM telling me who has been banned and thus disqualified? Thanks! I'll update the scorecard if that's OK.

I was once banned, but since I have been on my best behavior for the last couple of months and I am not currently violating any site rules, the mods in their wisdom and generosity have decided to give me a second chance. I am very grateful for the opportunity to post here. DaveP and I are currently having a really good discussion on economics vs. physics in terms of their very different approaches to understanding the world.

I know I am not on your oil price challenge scorecard, and please forgive this little interruption if you are talking about someone else, but it sounds like you might be talking about me in some sort of cryptic way. Are you? If so, are you attempting to sway the mods into banning me for having once been banned? If so, why? I have never done anything to you. I don't remember ever having had any interaction with you until now.

Like I said, please forgive me if I am wrong about all of this, but I believe in being open and direct. If you do have some kind of problem with me, I think we should talk about it.

[davep]

He wasn't referring to you. PeakOiler, I'll PM you.

[SumYunGai]

He wasn't referring to you. PeakOiler, I'll PM you.

Thanks for clearing that up, Dave.

PeakOiler, sorry about that. Please carry on.

[salinsky]

Of course it wasn't SumYunGai, they are not playing the Challenge.
Sal

[davep]

To be clear, it was just an enquiry about permanently banned posters. Nothing to see here, move along!

[PeakOiler]

Thanks davep.

I have learned that by clicking on the Members link at the top of the forum pages, we can search for any member and see what their status is. I noted during my spot searches, at least one member that had a “permanently banned” status. This person is not playing the 2016 Oil Price Challenge, however, so it doesn’t affect the current list of players. How often is the status of members updated I wonder?

Meanwhile, back on topic, I noticed the WTI intraday price is around $48.93. If it stays above $48.86 at the closing bell today, then yours truly takes second place! I’ll still be about $7.88 behind Salinski, but I’m closing in!

[PeakOiler]

Now according to a Reuters article,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN12401K?il=0

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 closed down 12 cents at $48.69, after hitting $49.13 earlier, a peak since July 5.

The two benchmarks rose about 40 cents each on the API data, with Brent at $51.25 and WTI at $49.19 by 5:00 p.m. (2100 GMT)

We'll just see what the EIA reports in this week's release. Stay tuned.

Now what will cause another $3.00 upward tick to a new record high for the year?

CNN Money http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/reports a close of $49.17.

[Cog]

This is very exciting as we close into the finals. Just need the right play.

[PeakOiler]

Well, the estimate I made in my post above was a bit premature. I forgot that Monday is the cutoff date in the weekly EIA report, not Tuesday, plus my average estimate was a bit low. <<sigh>> So it looks like I'll have to wait until next week's report to possibly see the #2 spot.

Meanwhile, here's this week's scorecard:



Look how little difference there is between players 2-6 (overall diff). That's pretty tight!

[PeakOiler]

WTI is up to about $50.30 today according to cx-portal.com and this Reuters article:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN12602Z

Oil rises to four-month highs as OPEC keeps output cuts in focus
Oil rose about 1 percent, hitting four-month highs on Thursday, underpinned by news of another informal OPEC meeting on output cuts and surprise drop in U.S. crude stocks, though trading was choppy after a price gain of 15 percent in seven sessions.

Saudi, Iranian and Iraqi energy ministers will be among key OPEC representatives to meet non-OPEC member Russia on the sidelines of an energy conference next week in Istanbul, OPEC sources said.

Oil has gained more than $6 a barrel since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced at informal talks in Algeria on Sept. 28 that it hopes to reduce output to 32.5 million-33 million barrels per day. That would remove about 700,000 bpd from a global glut estimated by analysts at 1.0 million-1.5 million bpd.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up 54 cents, or 1 percent, at $52.40 a barrel by 11:46 a.m. EDT (1546 GMT), rising earlier to $52.65, its highest since June 9. It settled at below $46 prior to the OPEC announcement.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 rose 48 cents to $50.31, having broken above $50 for the first time since June 24. WTI settled below $45 seven sessions ago.

So putting this latest number into my "What If?" page of my Excel workbook (and assuming that's the close and the average price is now $41.55), GASMON jumps to second, Salinski #1, and me third. I can only get ahead of those guys now if the price goes above ~$53. I knew I guessed too low on my average price!

[Subjectivist]

Has anyone stayed in last place for a whole year? I have not budget at all.

[PeakOiler]

Has anyone stayed in last place for a whole year? I have not budget at all.

Yes. Just last year Quinny held the basement spot for the entire year. In 2011, Repent had that dubious honor. Pops came real close one year as well.

[Tanada]

Has anyone stayed in last place for a whole year? I have not budget at all.

Yes. Just last year Quinny held the basement spot for the entire year. In 2011, Repent had that dubious honor. Pops came real close one year as well.

Now that is what I call seeking the silver lining in the storm clouds LOL.

[ROCKMAN]

Just curious: do any of our oil futures price predictors actually invest in the oil futures market using their price call? I would be willing to every theoretical $ I have. LOL

Or since they are really making a call on 30 day future price has anyone kept track of their net gains/losses?

[PeakOiler]

Just curious: do any of our oil futures price predictors actually invest in the oil futures market using their price call? I would be willing to every theoretical $ I have. LOL

Or since they are really making a call on 30 day future price has anyone kept track of their net gains/losses?

I don't. But this year, the Oil Price Challenge is tracking the SPOT prices. (See link in the scorecard and page 1.)

[ROCKMAN]

Thanks PO. I wasn't thinking about challenge so much. Some folks are referring to daily changes in future prices. Those were the guess es I was referring to. Probably not the proper thread to ask.

[Subjectivist]

Rockman to paraphrase an old saying, I is so poor guessing is the only game I can afford

[PeakOiler]

Here's this week's scorecard: