[mmasters]

Will the surviving US middle class over the next 30-40 years suffer from peak oil?

[dolanbaker]

Will the surviving US middle class over the next 30-40 years suffer from peak oil?

Only if they don't adapt!

[Plantagenet]

The main effect of peak oil is to increase energy prices.

Higher energy prices have the knock-on effect of making virtually everything else more expensive as well.

Of course the vast majority of the middle class is going to suffer from higher and higher energy prices in the years to come. Isn't that obvious?

[mmasters]

The main effect of peak oil is to increase energy prices.

Higher energy prices have the knock-on effect of making virtually everything else more expensive as well.

Of course the vast majority of the middle class is going to suffer from higher and higher energy prices in the years to come. Isn't that obvious?

Well the upper middle class will most likely become the new middle class and that's where I intend to be the next 30 years.

[Plantagenet]

The main effect of peak oil is to increase energy prices.

Higher energy prices have the knock-on effect of making virtually everything else more expensive as well.

Of course the vast majority of the middle class is going to suffer from higher and higher energy prices in the years to come. Isn't that obvious?

Well the upper middle class will most likely become the new middle class and that's where I intend to be the next 30 years.

How are you going to make yourself part of the upper middle class for the next 30 years?

Are you getting a degree in petroleum engineering?

[SamInNebraska]

How are you going to make yourself part of the upper middle class for the next 30 years?

Are you getting a degree in petroleum engineering?

That would require learning some math I think. Mericuns, they don't do the maths so well.

[AgentR11]

Will the surviving US middle class over the next 30-40 years suffer from peak oil?

Those that think they are middle class, but aren't, are going to be absolutely hosed by peak oil and rising food prices.

I suspect those that are solid middle class are well enough educated that with enough financial strength at hand will be able to find personally suitable adaptations. Big movement of folks now into expensive "walkable" in-town; lots of higher end telecommuting capabilities now, more "facilities" for bikes (as much as I prefer wide lane'd roads to facilities, I acknowledge most don't.). A true middle class individual can look at the situation unfolding and can afford to move or otherwise alter behavior to meet the new conditions. The guy making 40k/yr for his family though?? Gonna be tough.

[SeaGypsy]

That depends how $40k stacks up (inflation), where the family is and if the income is consistent. Housing busts, mass unemployment, other factors could make $40k look good. Here is Australia most of the workforce is being casualized. Full time permanent jobs (the kind the bank want you to have) are becoming rarer and rarer.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Will the surviving US middle class over the next 30-40 years suffer from peak oil?

Only if they don't adapt!

Right Dolan.

And there are lots of adaptations that can (and I think will) go on, that don't have to involve suffering, just a change in attitude. Examples:

1). The whole system realizing energy is expensive, and planning for that. So the entire product lifecycle including product energy efficiency from producers to energy usage efficiency from consumers could result. (i.e. not driving around randomly, planning trips and errands for efficiency, waiting for a full load to wash clothes, buying in bulk or at planned intervals to minimize shipping costs/premiums are just a few examples that come to mind).

2). People realizing that saving, thrift, and efficiency really DO matter, and living accordingly. Today first worlders, especially Americans, tend to live at the edge (or beyond) of their income, make few contingency plans, and expect whining and Uncle Sam to make up the difference if anything goes wrong. When they realize that doesn't work so well and that one CAN live without splurging on fancy meals out, fancy vacations, fancy inefficient cars, fancy large homes, fancy things to fill the house, etc. -- lo and behold, a WHOLE LOT of saving could be going on.

3). People realizing that "keeping up with: pick your status symbol" is simply idiotic would really help.

So things like this could be used to deal with higher energy costs, and gasp, preparing for an unpredictable future. What a concept.

I don't expect this to happen quickly, or in our current government culture without a deafening amount of whining from many circles -- but over time, I do expect the reality to set in -- at least for those who prefer not to struggle and suffer economically as a SELF-IMPOSED way of life.

[SamInNebraska]

So things like this could be used to deal with higher energy costs, and gasp, preparing for an unpredictable future. What a concept.

I don't expect this to happen quickly, or in our current government culture without a deafening amount of whining from many circles -- but over time, I do expect the reality to set in -- at least for those who prefer not to struggle and suffer economically as a SELF-IMPOSED way of life.

Good list. It sounds as though changes in behavior would go a long way towards mitigting against higher priced energy, and if I am not mistaken, the people buying these things are probably already well aware of this fact, and transitioning already.



An even better mitigation technique would be to live close enough to work to not even need a car of course, but if you have to have one, one which doesn't need much gasoline sure could be a game changer.

[MrEnergyCzar]

Those that clear their debts and learn to function on a homestead, living below their means will fair better....

MrEnergyCzar

[MrEnergyCzar]

So things like this could be used to deal with higher energy costs, and gasp, preparing for an unpredictable future. What a concept.

I don't expect this to happen quickly, or in our current government culture without a deafening amount of whining from many circles -- but over time, I do expect the reality to set in -- at least for those who prefer not to struggle and suffer economically as a SELF-IMPOSED way of life.

Good list. It sounds as though changes in behavior would go a long way towards mitigting against higher priced energy, and if I am not mistaken, the people buying these things are probably already well aware of this fact, and transitioning already.



An even better mitigation technique would be to live close enough to work to not even need a car of course, but if you have to have one, one which doesn't need much gasoline sure could be a game changer.

I talked about the benefits of the Volt elsewhere on the forum. The key is that many are trapped in suburbia due to multiple reasons and a plug-in hybrid severely reduces your oil dependence as a direct end user and gives you two ways to power your car. When I went from an SUV to a Volt as my only car, I now use about 3 gallons a month, get over 300 mpg... Yes, a bicycle is better but most can't only have a bike.

MrEnergyCzar

[AgentR11]

Those that clear their debts and learn to function on a homestead, living below their means will fair better..

I think that's a completely different cohort of folks though than "US Middle Class". Which usually refers to one and two income households, with one either salaried or high end commission pay.

Yes, a bicycle is better but most can't only have a bike.

No reason to have only a bike, even if you move into downtown/walkable-village, you can keep an old pickup in the parking lot/garage, and do most of your travel and shopping by bicycle. Others that are comfortable with rental arrangements can just rent cars when they need them. I like owning my own truck though, I can drill holes in it if I want!

nb, on $40k above, I'm talking US$2013, inflation indexed to shadowstats. (maybe I should put this in my sig...)

[SamInNebraska]

I talked about the benefits of the Volt elsewhere on the forum.

So have others. Sort of a surprise that every peak oilers weren't the first adopters for these things.

The key is that many are trapped in suburbia due to multiple reasons and a plug-in hybrid severely reduces your oil dependence as a direct end user and gives you two ways to power your car. When I went from an SUV to a Volt as my only car, I now use about 3 gallons a month, get over 300 mpg... Yes, a bicycle is better but most can't only have a bike.

MrEnergyCzar

Fortunately, a suburbia based solution like the Volt works pretty well in an environment where plenty of Americans live. Suburbs are where what, 70% of the commting population lives? Pretty big niche for a 300 mpg solution. Hard to beat that with anything short of a pure EV.