[vtsnowedin]

Today's weak economic data suggests Q4 GDP will be sharply negative. The Nov. Chicago PMI collapsed to 37.2, 10 points below the consensus forecast. The Oct. goods trade deficit soared to $99 billion, 10% above estimates. Powell still talks about a soft landing. It's a crash.

And yet in spite of this dire news the S&P was up 3.09% and the NASDAQ up 4.41%.
How do you explain that?

[AdamB]

Today's weak economic data suggests Q4 GDP will be sharply negative.

And the DJIA today was....UP!!

It's a crash.

Well, just more proof that science deniers don't even know the difference in uncrashing stock markets going UP, rather than crashing. Better luck next random science denier parroting?

[vtsnowedin]

With yesterday's little rally my accounts went positive year to date. That puts me at a better starting point if we get that predicted crash next year.

[AdamB]

With yesterday's little rally my accounts went positive year to date. That puts me at a better starting point if we get that predicted crash next year.

You need to get a GO JOE!!! sign out in your front yard, considering how well his Administration and their policies have boosted your financial accomplishments! Much better than The Greatest Recession Since The Great Depression gang, right?

[vtsnowedin]

A rally this morning DOW up 500 points but now at 11:00 AM it has faded to up 250. The news was inflation was not as high as expected 7% instead of 8% but after a couple of hours people are going "Wait a minute 7% inflation still sucks big time".
I got a nice bump on one stock with positive new product news so a very nice day so far.

[AdamB]

A rally this morning DOW up 500 points but now at 11:00 AM it has faded to up 250. The news was inflation was not as high as expected 7% instead of 8% but after a couple of hours people are going "Wait a minute 7% inflation still sucks big time".

It's all in the direction VT, all in the direction. It shows improvement because of Sleepy Joe's outstanding economic policies and administration with some semblance of a Congress behind him. Things might be different in a month when the party run by a traitor decides to hold improvement in the American economy hostage to whatever the traitor wants instead of legislative successes on behalf of the American people the way the Democans did, and focus on thing like nudie pictures of Hunter Biden. They are so fascinated with that one a honest person might think they are all closet gays, looking for excuse to oogle Hunter's goods on the taxpayer dime.

I got a nice bump on one stock with positive new product news so a very nice day so far.

Go Brandon!

[vtsnowedin]

Well the Fed chairman dashed the markets hopes of a pivot on interest rates yesterday afternoon and the market responded by beginning a selloff that has continued today to the tune of down 3%.
Get the popcorn out and watch the panic.

[AdamB]

Well the Fed chairman dashed the markets hopes of a pivot on interest rates yesterday afternoon and the market responded by beginning a selloff that has continued today to the tune of down 3%.
Get the popcorn out and watch the panic.

Why do the sheeple have to be so predictable? Finance, markets, bitcoin, peak oilers, I mean the concept is everywhere. Finance and markets though, it does seem like those touch far more people in general.

If I recall the news snippets correctly, were there hints that next time the hikes might be more than the one they kicked out yesterday? I'm still pegging the recession chances at 75 for, 25 against.

[Plantagenet]

With yesterday's little rally my accounts went positive year to date. That puts me at a better starting point if we get that predicted crash next year.

Congrats on your great stock picking in this difficult bear market.



Now you're beating the market and you're beating just about every professional stock picker in every Wall Street investment bank on the street.

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

Thanks for the encouragement but my whole account does track the market up or down with a couple of exceptions. It will not surprise me to have my balance drop fifteen to twenty percent during the coming recession and then recover after the next change in government. I'm going to hold steady and not panic sell going forward and bank some cash to pick off bargains when they show up.

[vtsnowedin]

My research right now centers on stocks that have a P/E ratio of less then 15 and a dividend payout of 3% or better. At present I have six stocks that make the cut and a couple of also rans that might move into the group during the recession.
My favorite today is XOM which has a P/E of 8.6 and a dividend payout of 3.45% based on Friday's close of $104.70 but I bought it when oil was cheap for $45.54 a share so my dividend is close to 8%.

[Plantagenet]

My research right now centers on stocks that have a P/E ratio of less then 15 and a dividend payout of 3% or better. At present I have six stocks that make the cut and a couple of also rans that might move into the group during the recession.

Thats smart. Congrats to you again.

I just don't have the patience to buy good solid stocks at low PEs. I usually buy the hot tech stocks with high PEs on dips in hopes they will double or triple or more. And that worked very well for a while....at the top I was up over 500% on my whole portfolio.



I got worried and sold off some of my tech stocks about 9 months ago but my remaining tech stocks took big falls when the total market really plunged. In response for the last few months I've been buying back into top tier tech stocks like Nvidia and AMD and Snowflake at cheap prices when they sell off during some of the big market down turns. Its been a good plan, except I'm concerned that the market may plunge even more next year.

My favorite today is XOM which has a P/E of 8.6 and a dividend payout of 3.45% based on Friday's close of $104.70 but I bought it when oil was cheap for $45.54 a share so my dividend is close to 8%.

Really really good buy on the Exxon. Congratulations. Smart move.

Although I usually buy tech stocks I did buy some Schlumberger a few years back when oil was in contango for ca. $10/share and sold it all about six months ago for $42/share for a 400% profit....that was great but now I don't have any oil stocks in my portfolio.

AND I've finally got the message that stocks are going even lower so now the only thing I'm buying is a short term bond fund ETF that is paying about 4.3% interest. I'm going to store my cash in the bond ETF until the recession really hits.

GOOD LUCK TO YOU!

Cheers!

[AdamB]

My research right now centers on stocks that have a P/E ratio of less then 15 and a dividend payout of 3% or better. At present I have six stocks that make the cut and a couple of also rans that might move into the group during the recession.

Any thoughts on whether or not that recession will at LEAST provide the kind of opportunity for buying on the dip that I've been waiting and waiting for in the current market uncrashing condition?

[vtsnowedin]

I don't have any oil stocks in my portfolio.

AND I've finally got the message that stocks are going even lower so now the only thing I'm buying is a short term bond fund ETF that is paying about 4.3% interest. I'm going to store my cash in the bond ETF until the recession really hits.

GOOD LUCK TO YOU!

Cheers!

I do not buy any ETFs as I think the fees etc. eat up about a quarter of your potential profits.
High tech has the potential for big profits but also big losses so it is a casino with odds just a little better then Vegas. I have a few small bets out there that could be considered big tech or new innovation" ground floor" but right now none of them other then Moderna is in the green column.
I do expect to be able to buy some bargains during the depth of the recession but I doubt any good stock will get as low as Adam wants or expects them to get.

[AdamB]

I do expect to be able to buy some bargains during the depth of the recession but I doubt any good stock will get as low as Adam wants or expects them to get.

How can you say that! Are you seriously advocating that Sleepy Joe will continue to manage the economy in such a way that even a small dip buying opportunity won't present itself? I think your confidence in his undoubtedly amazing ability to get us out of The Greatest Recession Since The Great Depression is misplaced, I mean any early stage dementia patient would do better than the current Dear Leader of the Republican party but fighting off the next one? Dunno. Sure, inflation is coming down from some pretty steep highs, and gas prices are dropping nicely, but that doesn't mean we can count on him to continue improving things as much as you appear to be.

[Plantagenet]

I do not buy any ETFs as I think the fees etc. eat up about a quarter of your potential profits.

If you buy an "actively managed" ETF the fees can be as much as ca. 0.7-0.8% a year. But a "passive index" ETF fund, like the bond ETF I'm in, charges only 0.03% a year which is pretty insignificant when the interest rate payout is ca. 4.3%

High tech has the potential for big profits but also big losses so it is a casino with odds just a little better then Vegas. I have a few small bets out there that could be considered big tech or new innovation" ground floor" but right now none of them other then Moderna is in the green column.
I do expect to be able to buy some bargains during the depth of the recession.....

Casino gambling is just a matter of chance.....there is no way to tell what the next card or the next roulette number will be. Thats why I don't gamble. My last two trips to Las Vegas I didn't gamble a single penny.

But the chances of predicting the future correctly when investing in stocks and especially in tech stocks is considerably better then that. A stock buyer can evaluate and compare the companies and their products, the technology, and especially the growth history of multiple stocks before buying. For instance, I bought some SNOWFLAKE several months ago right after it took a huge one-day fall after announcing profits....or should I say lack of profits. SNOWFLAKE did its IPO just a couple of years ago, and while it is growing its sales incredibly rapidly it still hasn't turned a profit so its getting hammered in the current market where stocks without profits are an anathema to stock buyers. But its growth rate is incredible....sales were up ca. 80% over a year ago so I bought some. And after the quarterly report sell-off it quickly went back up 60%. Of course it is still very volatile and its lost some of those gains in these wicked and vicious market downturns we keep seeing, but I'm still well above where I bought it.


Snowflake (SNOW) is an example of a company with very rapid earnings growth that still hasn't become profitable. Its stock has gotten hammered in the current market selloff but Snowflake's longterm growth potential is great. When the stock price of a rapidly growing company precipitously drops and gets oversold, thats called a "buying opportunity.".

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

I bought a bit of Luminar tech.(LAZR) which makes radars for self driving cars. Seemed like a likely winner with the push to EVs and AI assisted driving. It is down by more then 50% from where I bought it at $17.89. They need to cinch a good contract with a major auto manufacturer which could happen at any time..

[vtsnowedin]

I noticed my cash account at Fidelity is now paying 3.5% so I don't need to look for a bond fund.

[careinke]

I noticed my cash account at Fidelity is now paying 3.5% so I don't need to look for a bond fund.

Well with the latest government monthly inflation numbers of 7.1% you are only losing 3.6% in purchasing power. Do you think if the inflation rate goes down to 3%, Fidelity will keep paying 3.5%? That would be cool.

Not that I have any right to criticize, sitting here with a loss of 5% of purchasing power from my "Huge" increases in Medicare and Military Retirement this year. Not to mention my Raytheon Retirement, which never increases.

Peace

[AdamB]

I noticed my cash account at Fidelity is now paying 3.5% so I don't need to look for a bond fund.

Well with the latest government monthly inflation numbers of 7.1% you are only losing 3.6% in purchasing power. Do you think if the inflation rate goes down to 3%, Fidelity will keep paying 3.5%? That would be cool.

Well, losing 3% over the course of a year in VT's investments sure sounds better than what happened to the folks who held bitcoin over the last year. Now THERE is an OUCH.