[thor]

When this stuff "burbs" to the surface then we are truly frakked, releasing even more potent green house gases in the atmosphere. If we want to turn this planet into a venus equivalent then this would be the way to do it!

[dohboi]

And if they think they can make a buck doing it, they will. I thought I was about as doomerish as one dohboi could be, but this pushes me to whole new levels. Many think that four of the five last mass extinctions since the beginning of life started with release of these methane hydrates. Just don't get me started.

[hironegro]

Isn't this stuff even more powerful greenhouse gass than CO2/Carbin-13?

[Valdemar]

Isn't this stuff even more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2/Carbin-13?

Around 23 times more potent. And there's a lot of it. It need only take some of the Siberian perma-frost to start a meltdown and then it goes from there in a chain reaction. The deep sea stuff is relatively safe, but the shallow water and land deposits, especially in the poles where warming is most focused, will be susceptible.

[TonyPrep]

The "good" news is that the latest hydrates estimate is a factor of 1000 less than previously thought: Hydrates Updated by Jean Laherrere.
(As of the time of posting, the link doesn't work due to some glitch on TheOilDrum site.)

[dohboi]

That's great and greatly comforting...if you believe anything that "peakoildebunked" Laherrere has to say. Oops. Valdemar gives the accurate standard relative measure for CH4 vs CO2. But keep in mind that this ratio is relevant over the period of 100 years. Since methane doesn't stay in the atmosphere more than a few years, this time scale vastly underestimates the immediate magnitude of methanes power as a green house gas. Over the period of a decade, it is one hundred some times more powerful than CO2.

The Siberian tundra is already melting and releasing its methane at an excellerating rate (see related thread) without poking around in this wasps nest. What an interesting, interesting time we do live in.

[eastbay]

S. Korea to cut oil tax if oil hits $170

The plans follow a 10.5 trillion won ($10.01 billion) package introduced last month to ease the financial burden of high oil prices on low-income individuals and self-owned businesses.

The government said last month it would come up with extra contingency plans, including a cut in oil taxes, if Dubai oil tops $170 a barrel.

link

Subsidizing. Have to keep that economic ball rolling.

That'll help make more fuel available for everyone.

[idiom]

With such inelastic demand, the market signals are being destroyed not demand.

[idiom]

This is not a subsidy they are backing off, it is a tax. Oil will become cheaper in South Korea. The price is artifically inflated to decrease demand ahead of PO.

Such hedges allow countries to mitigate the fast onset of PO. The States never had a tax or anything. The States only have the SPR which could be used for the same thing, to keep effective US prices below $150 for six months.

[DantesPeak]

Contrary to many predictions I recently heard from main stream economic analysts, the gross amount of subsidies around the world are increasing as the price of energy rises.

Most people in the world would have their lives significantly disrupted by paying twice as much for energy as one year ago. Almost all countries, no matter how much they believe in 'free markets' will increase their subsidies to avoid protests, strikes, riots, etc. That includes the US, where I expect the first rebate program will be followed by a second - this year - more specifically targeted to those most effected by higher energy prices.

[idiom]

Reckon this will be followed by headline like "U.S. to open SPR if Oil hits $170"" No matter how bad an idea that is?

[DantesPeak]

Reckon this will be followed by headline like "U.S. to open SPR if Oil hits $170"" No matter how bad an idea that is?

Probably.

SPR was authorized by Congress to be used only in the event of physical disruptions to the oil market. That would seem to include hurricanes, blocked shipping channels, etc. However Congress changed its own rules this year by not allowing the SPR to be refilled (except by payment of oil royalties from the GOM).

So it's quite possible that Congress could vote to release the SPR before the elections. It's also possible that would have a significant - though short lived - negative impact on the price of oil.

[copious.abundance]

With such inelastic demand, the market signals are being destroyed not demand.

Sorry to say, but oil demand in Korea is a bit more elastic than you think.

--> LINK <--

South Korea's June Crude Oil Imports Drop 6.1%; Cost Jumps 71%
By Shinhye Kang

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea, the world's fifth- biggest crude oil buyer, imported 6.1 percent less of the fuel in June as prices rose from a year earlier.

Imports dropped to 66.4 million barrels last month from 70.7 million barrels a year ago, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said in an e-mailed statement today. The import bill increased 70.5 percent to $8.25 billion in June because of higher oil prices.

Crude-oil imports in the first half of this year fell 1.2 percent to 433.8 million barrels, the ministry said.

That comes to 143,333 fewer bpd in demand. Or at least in imports. But since South Korea has basically no oil production, that should be a pretty close surrogate to actual demand, unless they've started importing large quantities of refined gasoline and diesel.

[idiom]

When the price doubles does consumption halve? No? Wow, it might not be perfectly elastic then.

[wisconsin_cur]

Sorry to say, but oil demand in Korea is a bit more elastic than you think.

or not?

Crude inventories in S. Korea,

SEOUL, June 20 (Reuters) - South Korea's commercial crude inventory fell nearly 37 percent by end-May from a year ago as high oil prices continued to discourage refiners from making new purchases, state-run Korea National Oil Corp (KNOC) said Friday.

37%... ouch

South Korea's four refiners -- SK Energy (096770.KS: Quote, Profile, Research), GS Caltex, S-Oil Corp (010950.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) and Hyundai Oilbank Corp -- had 14.51 million barrels of crude left in stocks by May 31, compared to 22.95 million barrels a year before, KNOC's monthly data showed.

That would be a loss in stocks of about 8.44 million barrels

Along with the fall, overall private oil stocks by end-May fell 8.9 percent from a year ago to 70.18 million barrels.

"The problem is continuing. High crude oil prices are pressuring refiners to use stocks rather than make new imports," said Uhm Kwang-yong, domestic products analyst at KNOC.

The end-May crude inventory volume was enough to meet 6.7 days of the country's demand, down from 10.9 days on average in the previous year.

So we don't really know how much usage has gone down... they have been using existing stocks.

Imagine what will happen to prices when they have to start importing again

Sorry OF2. The real world is more complicated than you perceive.

[FireJack]

Its really starting to come together. Prices have been relentlessly rising of late and all these people who have been trying to bunker down are starting to realize its just going to get worse. I'm betting that just when these countries reach a breaking point shortages will start to appear then oil rising $10-$20 a day will be the norm as everyone panics. Good idea to be prepared for that day.