[MonteQuest]

Long-haul trucking to short-haul to rail? Never happen.

I'm sure much the same was said about the Interstate highway system when it was first proposed.

The capacity doesn't exist for future freight increase, much less moving long-haul trucking freight to rail as well.

That's reality. Could it happen? In theory, yes. In reality, no.

No we don't need a huge cash for clunkers program just raise the gas tax and announce that it will rise by a fixed amount every six months until imports of crude stop.

A very large gas tax would be required, as studies have shown that the price of gasoline has very little effect on miles traveled and the fuel economy of the overall vehicle fleet.

Every six months until we reduce imports from 10 mbpd to zero?

The economy would implode long before you got a chance to raise it twice.

[MonteQuest]

I don't expect TPTB to get their BAU very much in the future.
They will do the right thing as soon as they get done trying everything else.
I am looking at what might possibly work, not what might pass the current congress. If they can convert coal to liquid fuel at a profit by growing corn let them ,but don't mandate or subsidize it. Few tractors run on coal so it is only useful as a heat source at the refinery or for electricity to run the pumps.
Keeping the status quo in my view is out of the question. What the best alternative course is, is the question.

But the right thing is reducing the population to a level that can be sustained without fossil fuels.

That isn't going to happen, except by Nature's hand.

Coal would provide the heat for the distillation process to make ethanol or biodiesel to run in tractors.

Of course keeping the status quo is out of the question, but the question is what can you get done in a gridlocked Congress here in the US?

My point of this thread is what will TPTB do to increase liquid fuel supply?

Will the govt step in with support for fracking when it becomes uneconomical to produce?

[basil_hayden]

No, government will not.

Conservation measures will be used to patch the gap (which, as you've pointed out elsewhere, is the elimination of waste otherwise known as the livelihoods of 40% of us) in liquid fuels. Plenty of room to carpool.

This will kick the can down the road until it can't be.

[vtsnowedin]

A very large gas tax would be required, as studies have shown that the price of gasoline has very little effect on miles traveled and the fuel economy of the overall vehicle fleet.

Yes ! think how that could be used to pay off the national debt.

Every six months until we reduce imports from 10 mbpd to zero?

We are already down to 7.6 mbpd
post1220381.html#p1220381

The economy would implode long before you got a chance to raise it twice.

If that were true the UK and the Euro zone would all be charred ruins.
First you could consider the price fluctuations the US has seen over the last few years. A half a dollar up then another half then down a buck etc, all unannounced and absorbed by the economy if not with ease at least with quite a bit of resilience. Now compare a small regular increase announced in advance so that car buyers could make accurate estimates of the tax they would pay over the life of the car. You might go a dime at a whack or perhaps a quarter, either way it would take quite a while to get up to UK prices of $7.23 a gallon. I don't see any implosion from that.

[MonteQuest]

If that were true the UK and the Euro zone would all be charred ruins.

Poor comparison. Europeans drive smaller cars with greater gas mileage and drive shorter distances. America has built its entire society around the car and suburbia. 1 out of every six jobs in the US is tied to the automobile. European cities have denser centers where cars are often not practical. Europe's stronger social safety net, including cheaper health care and higher education, is paid for partly through gas taxes. Norway uses oil profits to fund free college education and infrastructure development. Revenues from Europe's high gas taxes are used to fund a variety of things, beginning with better public transportation, environmental mitigation, and energy research. Also 40% of European cars are diesel compared to 4% of US cars.

And finally, they have had decades to adapt. Not months.

[MonteQuest]

Now compare a small regular increase announced in advance so that car buyers could make accurate estimates of the tax they would pay over the life of the car. You might go a dime at a whack or perhaps a quarter, either way it would take quite a while to get up to UK prices of $7.23 a gallon. I don't see any implosion from that.

"A very LARGE. gas tax would be required, as studies have shown that the price of gasoline has very little effect on miles traveled and the fuel economy of the overall vehicle fleet."

You just posted that a $.50 increase went hardy noticed.

[Subjectivist]

Liquid fuels are just a very convenient energy storage system. We have discussed manufacturing liquid hydrocarbons from other fossil fuels like coal or methane. We have discussed making liquid fuels from CO2+H2O+Energy, we have discussed storing energy as manufactured Methanol made from coal or biomass, we have discussed storing energy as Ammonia made from H2O+N2+Energy.

We have done this multiple times over the last 5-10 years. Conclusion, all of the above methods will work at certain price points. So long as world peak is not proven beyond a shadow of a doubt nobody is going to shift their infrastructure to any of these alternative manufactured liquid fuels because jumping too soon in a global economy will destroy the local economy.

[vtsnowedin]

If that were true the UK and the Euro zone would all be charred ruins.

Poor comparison.

You have a better one? Mongolia perhaps?

Europeans drive smaller cars with greater gas mileage and drive shorter distances.

Because of the higher gas taxes which is exactly the point.

America has built its entire society around the car and suburbia. 1 out of every six jobs in the US is tied to the automobile.

That is the way of the past. It will not be the way of the future.

European cities have denser centers where cars are often not practical.

You think a car is practical in New York city?

Europe's stronger social safety net, including cheaper health care and higher education, is paid for partly through gas taxes. Norway uses oil profits to fund free college education and infrastructure development. Revenues from Europe's high gas taxes are used to fund a variety of things, beginning with better public transportation, environmental mitigation, and energy research. Also 40% of European cars are diesel compared to 4% of US cars.

All uses of gas tax money that could be employed in the USA.

And finally, they have had decades to adapt. Not months.

What do you think is going to happen this year?
A 25 cent increase in gas tax every six months would take seven years to get to the UK level. You could move that rate and timeline up or down as desired. Also Americans adapt faster then Europeans.

[vtsnowedin]

"A very LARGE. gas tax would be required, as studies have shown that the price of gasoline has very little effect on miles traveled and the fuel economy of the overall vehicle fleet."

You just posted that a $.50 increase went hardy noticed.

I don't know what your studies consider to be very LARGE. It matters not as my plan was open ended and the regular increases would continue until it was as LARGE as needed to suppress demand low enough to end crude oil imports. Self regulating you see.
The key point is that the automatic increases are set in law and publicly known so there is no need to immediately rush to change vehicles just a steady turn over to more efficient vehicles or perhaps a move closer to work as the fleet wears out.

[dashster]

Long-haul trucking to short-haul to rail? Never happen. We spent decades abandoning track throughout the US, so existing US railroad infrastructure lacks sufficient capacity to accommodate any increase in demand for rail freight.

Well we built the first tracks across the country back in the 1800's before there were cars, trucks or diesel locomotives. We should be able to build more track, no matter what.

[vtsnowedin]

The rail system in the USA is far from gone. In fact it is doing quite well in spite of competition from pipelines and trucks.

U.S. railroads still play a major role in the nation's freight shipping. They carried 750 billion ton-miles by 1975 which doubled to 1.5 trillion ton-miles in 2005.[3][4] In the 1950s, the U.S. and Europe moved roughly the same percentage of freight by rail; by 2000, the share of U.S. rail freight was 38% while in Europe only 8% of freight traveled by rail.[5][6] In 1997, while U.S. trains moved 2,165 billion ton-kilometers of freight, the 15-nation European Union moved only 238 billion ton-kilometers of freight.[7]

U.S. railroads are separated into three classes based on annual revenues:

Class I for freight railroads with annual operating revenues above $346.8 million (2006 dollars)
Class II for freight railroads with revenues between $27.8 million and $346.7 million in 2000 dollars
Class III for all other freight revenues.

These classifications are set by the Surface Transportation Board.

In 1900, there were 132 Class I railroads. Today, as the result of mergers, bankruptcies, and major changes in the regulatory definition of "Class I," there are only seven railroads operating in the United States that meet the criteria for Class I. As of 2011, U.S. freight railroads operated 139,679 route-miles (224,792 km) of standard gauge in the U.S. Although Amtrak qualifies for Class I status under the revenue criteria, it is not considered a Class I railroad because it is not a freight railroad.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_trans ... ted_States

[MonteQuest]

Conclusion, all of the above methods will work at certain price points.

So, will govt's subsidize them to get to a "certain price point?"

We do it now with biofuels.

[MonteQuest]

Well we built the first tracks across the country back in the 1800's before there were cars, trucks or diesel locomotives. We should be able to build more track, no matter what.

That is the epitome of a lack of "critical thinking."

[MonteQuest]

The rail system in the USA is far from gone.

But it lacks the capacity to shift truck freight to rail.

[MonteQuest]

The key point is that the automatic increases are set in law

Good luck with that new "tax" law.

Think about what can be done that is reasonable to TPTB to maintain BAU.

[sparky]

.
I've always though much good could come out of an improvement of the railways and creation of a federal high voltage grid both entities are worm eaten private systems in much need of rationalization

[Subjectivist]

Conclusion, all of the above methods will work at certain price points.

So, will govt's subsidize them to get to a "certain price point?"

We do it now with biofuels.

I hope not, I am not in favor of biofuel or manufactured liquid fuel subsidies. I believe as we hit the down slope those critical price points will come about without my tax dollars needing to be involved in the process.

[toolpush]

The rail system in the USA is far from gone.

But it lacks the capacity to shift truck freight to rail.

And I am sure the interstate road system lacks the capacity to shift all rail freight to road?
Now, not if, but when the class 1s finish double tracking their main lines, lower tracks so double stacked containers can fit under all bridges, and miles of old previously poorly maintained track is upgraded, what will the picture look like then?
It is strange, America, the land of the motor car and big trucks, probably have the most utilized and wide spread rail system in the world.

[MonteQuest]

Also Americans adapt faster then Europeans.

You are hopelessly obtuse.

Good luck with that.

[MonteQuest]

Now, not if, but when the class 1s finish double tracking their main lines, lower tracks so double stacked containers can fit under all bridges, and miles of old previously poorly maintained track is upgraded, what will the picture look like then?

It probably won't be able to accommodate the 88% increase in freight projected by 2035, much less all long-haul trucking freight.