[Graeme]

Solar Power Grid Parity On The Horizon?

Solar panel sourced power could supply 5% of global electricity demand by 2020, up to 9% by 2030 and up to 20% by 2050, according to a study from the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and Greenpeace International.

The groups say solar power may also reach the holy grail of grid parity much faster than expected.

The report, “Solar Generation 2010”, predicts investments solar photovoltaic (PV) to increase from €35 billion in 2010 to €70 billion in 2015. Rapidly decreasing prices for solar panels and associated equipment could see home solar power systems able to generate electricity at a cost competitive with fossil fuel based sources by this time.

The report says this looming "grid parity" is an economic breakthrough for solar power and by 2030, up to 2.5 billion people could benefit from solar energy.

Current solar PV capacity could grow from 23 GW at the beginning of this year to 180 GW by 2015 and over 1,800 GW could be installed by 2030, saving as much as 1.4 billion tonnes in CO2 emissions annually.

energymatters

[cephalotus]

I assume that you will like that study from Q-cells:

http://qcells.de/medien/presse/publikat ... _final.pdf

[Graeme]

Technology Cost Review: Grid Parity for Renewables?

Research from the University of Melbourne's Energy Research Institute predicts that the price of wind and solar energy will continue to fall. The Institute's Renewable Energy Technology Cost Review covers the current and future costs of three forms of renewable energy technology - photovoltaic (PV), wind and concentrating solar thermal (CST) - by comparing data from a range of international and Australia-specific studies.

"It's expected, especially in the case of solar technologies, that they'll become very close to competitive with fossil fuels over the next five to 10 years. What this means is that we should be planning for a future with much larger penetrations of renewable energy and focusing on how we get that built and how we can integrate into the system as fast as possible," said Patrick Hearps, one of the lead researchers.

Each of the studies reviewed performed assessments of cost reductions for major plant components, taking into account expected growth and experience. The major opportunities include mass manufacture of mirror components; implementation of higher temperature steam cycles and storage; scale-up of plant sizes; and convoy/experience effects on engineering and indirect overheads. Power tower (central receiver) solar thermal systems are expected to be cheaper than parabolic troughs.

Photovoltaics and wind power have historically shown that a large proportion of cost reductions have come from experience and economies of scale associated with large-scale global deployment - not just improvements in technical efficiency. This is made particularly apparent when displaying a technology learning curve as a function of cumulative installed capacity, rather than time. Therefore any projection of a cost curve over time has an inherent assumption, explicit or not, of the expected growth in deployment of the technology.

renewableenergyworld

[prajeshbhat]

You could follow the work of E-solar company headed by Bill Gross(not the investor, the other Bill Gross who created Idealabs- cool guy). They claim to have built the cheapest solar power tower.
Here is a video where he explains how he applied Moore's Law in solar power.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_249X8ZHIdU

http://www.esolar.com/our_projects/photos.html

[Graeme]

Clean Energy Executives Say Grid Parity Without Subsidies Could Be Just 3 Years Away

Some of the largest countries on Earth made it clear this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that, in many cases, renewable energy is just a few years away from reaching grid parity with fossil fuels without subsidies. Worldwide investment in renewable energy totaled $187 billion in 2010, while investment in coal and natural gas was $157 billion. With government subsidies worldwide in jeopardy because of financial woes, the International Energy Agency says countries should hold on for just a few more years until renewables catch up to emissions-laden power companies — which could happen as early as 2015 — after which, it is anyone’s game.


Zhengrong Shi, CEO of Suntech Power holdings said that solar is on track to reach grid parity with coal by 2015 in at least 50 percent of the world’s markets. Vestas, a world leader in turbine manufacturing, expects their turbines to be cost-competitive without incentives “in the coming years”. Jifan Gao, CEO of Trina Solar Ltd. told Bloomberg news he expected his company to be competitive within a decade everywhere and that it is near grid parity in some places already.

inhabitat

[MD]

Grid parity without subsidies? That's a frightening thought. If so, we are much further down the slope than I thought.

[Cog]

Indeed

[Graeme]

Grid parity without subsidies? That's a frightening thought. If so, we are much further down the slope than I thought.

Don't you think that this is more to do with the reduction in the cost of producing electricity from renewable energy?

Grid parity is the point at which alternative means of generating electricity produces power at a levelized cost that is equal to or less than the price of purchasing power from the grid.

[Pops]

Don't you think that this is more to do with the reduction in the cost of producing electricity from renewable energy?

No, it has to do with dumping by Chinese manufacturers, with the help of their gov subsidies, in an effort to eliminate competition - which I've mentioned several times -

Chinese producers flood U.S. market with solar cells and modules ahead of upcoming ruling in solar trade case

On Dec. 2, the U.S. International Trade Commission issued a unanmimous preliminary determination that Chinese trade practices are harming the U.S. domestic solar manufacturing industry. The next step in the trade case will be Commerce’s Feb. 13 preliminary determination on whether to levy countervailing import duties to offset the effects of any illegal Chinese subsidies. On March 28, Commerce is scheduled to make its preliminary antidumping determination, imposing duties to offset the effects of Chinese import pricing at artificially low prices.

http://www.pv-magazine.com/services/pre ... 100005570/

Chinese solar subsidy storm heads for Europe

Solarworld AG is preparing an anti-dumping suit against Chinese firms operating in the EU, following a $1 billion action the German company launched in the US earlier this month.
The move reflects mounting concern in Europe and America about subsidised Chinese firms flooding the market with solar PV panels at artificially low cost.

Solarworld AG argues that China’s $30 billion of subsidies to its solar power companies violates global trade rules and constitute an unfair form of retailing below cost price or "dumping."

http://www.euractiv.com/specialreport-s ... ews-508585


Look just a little beyond the headline you hope to find and you'll get a better idea of what's really going on.

.

[MD]

intentional dumping can be a good thing, long term, for those doing the dumping.

it's the kind of long term risk that is more suitable to asian economic models, than it is western.

[Graeme]

I thought MD was talking about the decline in oil production.

In any case, I found 14 other reasons for the decline in solar costs:

In this decade, installed solar will drop to half its current cost. Such cost reductions will take more than lower costs of silicon panels and thin-film. Process and policy are now key areas for cost reduction. I recently attended the 3rd Annual Solar Leadership Summit hosted by SolarTech. With progress in these areas, solar costs will drop in half:

1.Manufacturing scale
2.Efficiency
3.Balance of System
4.Installation
5.Right Size
6.Right Place
7.Improve Interconnect
8.Markets not Monopolies
9.Policy
10.Process
11.Financing
12.Concentrate
13.Hybrid Systems
14.Storage

[Pops]

I hope the true price will continue down but I'd take forecasts with a grain of salt.

[MD]

The world is changing, fast. It's like an Indy race. Lot's of players will crash and burn along the way.

[kiwichick]

new report from doe estimates up to 30 % of us electricity can be met by wave power

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdat ... 262775.pdf

[vtsnowedin]

The parity gap can be closed in both directions. The cost of coal fired electricity is soaring due to heavy handed regulation by the Obama administration. Don't ask when the gap will close, ask what price we will be paying for the light bill when it closes.

[ralfy]

Repost:

"The Energy Trap"

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/201 ... ergy-trap/

[Nano]

Grid parity is the point at which alternative means of generating electricity produces power at a levelized cost that is equal to or less than the price of purchasing power from the grid.

It's a funny thing. Yesterday on the evening news, a smiling academic from an environmentalist NGO proclaimed that in the netherlands, grid parity had been reached and everyone should buy solar panels for their homes.

It turned out the guy was just lying. The cost of roof top solar power in the netherlands is 21 ct/kWh, while the cost to households of electricity from the grid is 8 ct/kWh. Of course, once you add the fee for grid maintenance and taxes, you come to 25 ct/kWh, which presumably is why the guy on the news made the claim that 'grid parity was reached'.

But it remains a flawed argument. If you ignore grid maintenance costs and taxes, than you are implying that we just let the grid rot, and that the lost tax income does not equal reduced government earning and hence reduced government spending or new taxes.

In the Netherlands, rather than the arrival of grid parity, what we are seeing is the arrival of stupidity and short-sightedness on the independent news service.

In my job as an energy systems specialist working for a mechanical engineering consultancy firm, I have commissioned many small and large PV systems. It turns out that even if the cost of solar panels goes to 0, then the cost of the construction and maintenance is at least 4 ct/kWh. That is far more than the cost of French nuclear power. Hence, I am confident that grid parity will *never* be reached in the Netherlands. Grid parity for wind energy, however, may be possible in my country, but it is nowhere near yet. The price of the windturbine would have be reduced by 50% to about €500/kW. I think it could be done.

[kublikhan]

The parity gap can be closed in both directions. The cost of coal fired electricity is soaring due to heavy handed regulation by the Obama administration. Don't ask when the gap will close, ask what price we will be paying for the light bill when it closes.

Personally I am happy with the gap closing from both directions. Renewables are getting cheaper and fossil fuels are finally having some of their externalities factored into their cost. Plus there is the fact that cheap energy encourages waste. With expensive energy, the savings from negawatts add up much more quickly.

But it remains a flawed argument. If you ignore grid maintenance costs and taxes, than you are implying that we just let the grid rot, and that the lost tax income does not equal reduced government earning and hence reduced government spending or new taxes.

In the Netherlands, rather than the arrival of grid parity, what we are seeing is the arrival of stupidity and short-sightedness on the independent news service.

In my job as an energy systems specialist working for a mechanical engineering consultancy firm, I have commissioned many small and large PV systems. It turns out that even if the cost of solar panels goes to 0, then the cost of the construction and maintenance is at least 4 ct/kWh. That is far more than the cost of French nuclear power. Hence, I am confident that grid parity will *never* be reached in the Netherlands. Grid parity for wind energy, however, may be possible in my country, but it is nowhere near yet. The price of the windturbine would have be reduced by 50% to about €500/kW. I think it could be done.

I agree, the news report was stupid. It sounds like they were comparing the cost of the panels alone to the cost of everything on the grid side. That is comparing apples and oranges. In additional to the panels you have the cost of installation, inverters, delta arrestors, batteries, etc. All of that makes off grid much more expensive than grid cost.

Utility scale power will ALWAYS be cheaper than residential. They get cost benefits from economies of scale. That applies to renewables like solar and wind, just as it does to coal and nuclear(How much would it cost to build your own nuke plant in your backyard?). I don't see this as a bad thing though. Residents can still benefit from the utilities economies of scale for renewables if the utility chooses to install renewables on their end.

[Serial_Worrier]

How can the cost of a solar panel go to zero and at the same time the cost of construction of said solar pane be not zero?

Stop asking stupid questions and just worship the renewables-god.