[Daniel_Plainview]

Jobless Claims Soar by 18,000, Breaking Past the 400K Barrier to 409,000

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 409,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 391,000. The 4-week moving average was 410,750, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 414,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent for the week ending Dec. 25, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.3 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 25 was 4,103,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,150,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,122,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,125,250.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 577,279 in the week ending Jan. 1, an increase of 52,038 from the previous week. There were 645,446 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent during the week ending Dec. 25, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,390,661, an increase of 273,882 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.2 percent and the volume was 5,484,997. The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Dec. 18 was 8,765,952.

linkie winkie

[copious.abundance]

Here's the latest chart. Still on a clear downtrend the past few months or so.

[Armageddon]

500,000 people per month are falling off the 99 week program. These people are no longer counted and now have no income. It won't take long before things start esculating out of control. Millions of jobs will be lost in 2011 by the budget crises in most states. Buckle up buddy boy, things are about to get interesting. Unless you are one of those morons who thinks they can print money forever.

[vision-master]

One expert (no I can't remember who) on mainstream news said it may take 40 years for a recovery.

[Daniel_Plainview]

One expert (no I can't remember who) on mainstream news said it may take 40 years for a recovery.

40 years is no problem ... because according to OF2, we have at least another 40 years of cheap oil to nourish this sickly economy.

[vision-master]

The USA has enough oil to last 100 years!

They have been saving it........

[copious.abundance]

500,000 people per month are falling off the 99 week program. These people are no longer counted and now have no income.

That has nothing to do with initial jobless claims, which is the data set shown in my graphic, and which is the topic of this thread.

It won't take long before things start esculating out of control. Millions of jobs will be lost in 2011 by the budget crises in most states. Buckle up buddy boy, things are about to get interesting.

deleted

[copious.abundance]

Buckle up buddy boy, things are about to get interesting.

You've been telling us things are about to get interesting for at least the past year-and-a-half. Still waiting!

[joewp]

Well now, this doesn't look very good...

December jobs report: Payrolls up, unemployment rates falls - Jan. 7, 2011

The economy added 103,000 jobs in December -- falling short of most expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate sunk to 9.4%, its lowest level since May 2009, confusing some economists.
...
Discouraged workers in December ticked up to 1.3 million, with those workers falling off the the unemployment rate calculations.

About 260,000 adults dropped out of the labor force for various reasons, and were no longer counted as unemployed by the government. The overall participation rate in the U.S. labor force fell to a new recession low of 64.3%.

"Incredibly, the U.S. labor force is now smaller than it was before the recession started, though it should have grown by over 4 million workers to keep up with working-age population growth over this period," said economist Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute.

What are these discouraged workers doing with there free time? What are they doing for food and shelter?

By the way, the article states "The labor market typically needs at least 300,000 to make a difference in the unemployment rate, economists say. Anything less than that is just barely enough to keep pace with population growth." So that answers a question asked here earlier.

But the silver lining is that it confused some economists. Always a good thing when economists get confused.

[Chuckmak]

Buckle up buddy boy, things are about to get interesting.

You've been telling us things are about to get interesting for at least the past year-and-a-half. Still waiting!

And YOU have been telling us the economy is going to recover fast for the past 3 years.

In essence, you guys are no better than each other, just on opposite sides of the fence.

[Armageddon]

Buckle up buddy boy, things are about to get interesting.

You've been telling us things are about to get interesting for at least the past year-and-a-half. Still waiting!

Who would have thought they were going to print 15 trillion dollars, bail out everybody and their grandma's and nationalize GM, Freddie, Fannie and AIG. Plus, give billions every month to most states to pay for unemployment bennies. The system is completely broke. Only a complete idiot would think otherwise. With 43 million on food stamps and 1 out 6 people working for government, it won't be long. Plus, only the FED is buying Treasuries. The game is nearing its end. Buckle up buddy-boy.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Buckle up buddy boy, things are about to get interesting.

You've been telling us things are about to get interesting for at least the past year-and-a-half. Still waiting!

Who would have thought they were going to print 15 trillion dollars, bail out everybody and their grandma's and nationalize GM, Freddie, Fannie and AIG. Plus, give billions every month to most states to pay for unemployment bennies. The system is completely broke. Only a complete idiot would think otherwise. With 43 million on food stamps and 1 out 6 people working for government, it won't be long. Plus, only the FED is buying Treasuries. The game is nearing its end. Buckle up buddy-boy.

Excellent summary, except that the food stamp number has been updated from 43.0M to 43.2M ...

[Daniel_Plainview]

Jobless claims soar by 35,000 to 445K as double-dip takes foothold

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT7

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 445,000, an increase of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 410,000. The 4-week moving average was 416,500, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 411,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Jan. 1, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.3 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 1 was 3,879,000, a decrease of 248,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,127,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,056,500, a decrease of 72,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,128,500.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 770,413 in the week ending Jan. 8, an increase of 191,686 from the previous week. There were 815,593 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.8 percent during the week ending Jan. 1, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,766,951, an increase of 351,439 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.6 percent and the volume was 6,013,891.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Dec. 25 was 9,193,838.

Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin, during the week ending Dec. 25.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,922 in the week ending Jan. 1, a decrease of 308 from the prior week. There were 2,042 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 208 from the preceding week.

There were 49,772 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Dec. 25, an increase of 2,659 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 41,865, an increase of 1,297 from the prior week.

States reported 3,773,092 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Dec. 25, an increase of 195,429 from the prior week. There were 4,980,124 claimants in the comparable week in 2009. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Dec. 25 were in Alaska (7.5 percent), Oregon (5.2), Idaho (5.1), Montana (4.9), Wisconsin (4., Pennsylvania (4.7), Puerto Rico (4.6), Nevada (4.5), Illinois (4.4), and Michigan (4.3).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Jan. 1 were in Georgia (+11,997), Michigan (+10,129), Pennsylvania (+9,004), New York (+8,379), and Wisconsin (+7,236), while the largest decreases were in California (-13,694), Florida (-1,867), Nevada (-972), Kansas (-841), and New Mexico (-721).

help, the economy is sinking

Initial Claims Surge To 445K, On Expectations Of 410K, Not Adjusted Claims Surge By 191,686 To 770,413 In One Week

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2011 08:29 -0500

So much for that amazing beat in the last 2010 number in initial claims, which is now proven to have been purely a figment of the BLS' imagination and a whole load of guesstimations. Today's initial claims number throws cold water to all those who expected the trend in claims to be improving. At 445K, this was a huge miss to expectations of 410K, and a major deterioration from last week's (upwardly revised of course) 410K (was 409K before). Elsewhere, continuing claims came at 3,879K on expectations of 4,088K (with the previous naturally revised higher as well from 4,103K to 4,127K). And the kicker: in NSA terms initial claims were a mammoth 770,413, a 191,686 increase in just one week, and the highest NSA number in one year! The result: the spread between SA (3.1%) and NSA (3.8%) unemployment rate jumps to year highs. Of course, the BLS blames the huge disappointment on "paperwork delays", yet blamed nobody for the amazing beats in the end of 2010 which brought the market to a complete frenzy.

Lastly, completing the trifecta of bad data, those on various forms of extended claims jumped by 130K, confirming that we are nowehere close to dealing with the "99 week completion" cliff issue, as ever more people roll off continuing claims.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Karl Denninger's spin: "This is unambiguously bad - extended benefits AND initial benefits both up materially, and note that this was a week during which people said that the claims numbers were generally "good". Nope. Wake up folks - the supposed "economic expansion" is complete crap and is all government blowing money they don't have. The end of that rope is approaching. Fast. And the floor of the canyon we're rappelling down is 500' below us."

[copious.abundance]

Daniel is making the exact same mistake Sixstrings made when he started this thread.

And BTW, not that any doomer types will be willing to take this into account, but the first full week of January always has the largest NSA initial claims count.



It will probably fall by at least 100K next week. Of course the doomer types won't mention that when it occurs.

[dolanbaker]

But those charts only show people joining the dole queue, It doesn't show them leaving it!
Even if you take out the seasional factor, the rate is still high.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Daniel is making the exact same mistake Sixstrings made when he started this thread.

The expectations consensus was 408,000 ... whereas the print was 445,000. These expectations took into account the first-week-in-January anomaly you mentioned.

Ergo, this was a huge miss.

[copious.abundance]

Daniel is making the exact same mistake Sixstrings made when he started this thread.

The expectations consensus was 408,000 ... whereas the print was 445,000. These expectations took into account the first-week-in-January anomaly you mentioned.

Ergo, this was a huge miss.

So what? Two weeks ago the consensus was 415,000 .... whereas the print was 388,000. Ergo, it was a huge miss ... in the other direction.

Hell, after that 388K print came out I even said (near bottom of page):

As discussed in the article, this could rise back over 400K next week [which it did, and this week too], but it does indicate a downward trend of late. The first month or two of next year will tell us more.

In other words, I had the smarts two weeks ago to know an anomaly when I saw it, and I said so - even though it was good news. I also had the smarts on page 1 of this thread to know another anomaly when I saw it, and I told Sixstrings about it. Now today, we get what is probably yet another anomaly, but once again I seem to be the only one here who is actually smart enough to recognize one when it passes by. The Labor Department press release even told everyone there were special factors involved in the number, but that seems to have escaped the doomer types.

[copious.abundance]

BTW, here's another little goody for you doomer types.

Last year, in the first full week of January (w/e 1/9/2010), the NSA number was 802,573.
This year, for the corresponding week (w/e 1/8/2011) the NSA number was 770,413.
In other words, this year the NSA number was 32,180 (4%) smaller than the same week last year.
Data

Last year, in the first full week of January (w/e 1/9/2010), the SA number was 444,000.
This year, for the corresponding week (w/e 1/8/2011) the SA number was 445,000.
Data

In other words, with a smaller unadjusted number than last year, the Labor Department's seasonal adjustment process came up with a larger adjusted headline number than last year! Yes that's right folks, the Labor Department actually made the headline number worse this year compared to last year. If they had applied the same percentages to this year's number that they did for the same week last year, the headline SA number out today would have been 426K instead of 445K. Do the math yourself and you'll see what I mean.

[AirlinePilot]

OF,

You just don't seem to get it. The patient is still hemorrhaging and has been left on the table without help. If you cannot understand that these numbers are BAD then there really is no point in arguing. We are still a long way from any of these numbers being "good" or even normal. If you can say that in light of the trillions of dollars the Gov't is blowing, WHICH IT DOESN'T HAVE, in order to right a completely failing economy then I guess you are incapable of understanding why these numbers are not good. With the amounts that have been blown already, and in light of QE1 and QE2, results such as these are nothing short of DISMAL.

It's going to take FAR longer than the Government has money to fix what is wrong. On top of that they haven't solved any of the core problems which put us here in the first place. They are NOT changing the trajectory of GDP contrary to your fallacious arguments.