by ralfy » Wed 22 Apr 2020, 04:42:12
A theory is something plausible, which in this case means that there's a possibility that production will never peak. I think it's safe to say that that won't happen.
In which case, what's being theorized isn't peak oil but the timing. That will be dependent on many factors. For example,
1. The price. Some are happy that the price has dropped, but it's obvious that oil companies aren't. If the price is too low and given enough time, some companies will close shop. Unless someone else is willing to reopen them, which means paying for their liabilities, then it will be difficult to bring production back online, which means if demand is high enough, then the price will rise once more, but what about production?
2. Financial speculation. Apparently, most don't know anything about futures, etc., where people buy oil that's not yet available using money that they don't have, among many other things. But that doesn't help much, which explains why price goes up and down. What's clear, though, is that as the incredibly gullible laugh as price drops they don't realize that they're income and returns on investment may be dropping, too.
3. Demand. That means few are buying, and that can mean few are buying many other things. That means demand is dropping with earnings.
Etc.
What a capitalist world wants, then, is a steady increase in production needed to meet a steady increase in demand brought about by a steady increase in population plus a steady increase in people who are earning more money to buy more things which means more oil will be needed, etc.
What gets in the way of that is financial speculation, which may help fund production of oil that's more expensive but may also lead to volatile pricing which doesn't help businesses that need to pay for their costs. Add to that financial crashes leading to bailouts, for which recovery takes place by increasing debt. And then there's technology which makes businesses more productive but also encourages people to consume more, not to mention black swans like what's happening right now.
But the real obstacles include a planet with physical limitations plus environmental damage that won't allow for supply and demand to rise steadily. In which case, anyone who thinks a site like this is not necessary can only do so by arguing that none of the points raised above is true.