ROCKMAN wrote:Revi - An interesting collections of papers. But all I can offer once more with respect to Ugo's chart of the "Seneca Cliff" is to repeat the same request: show us a field of any significant size that has such a fast fall off of production. If such fields are rare how can a collection of such fields with overlapping starts and finishes produce such a curve?
And, once again, ROCKMAN, the Seneca Cliff being referred to is a Seneca Cliff for CIVILIZATION, i.e. a rapid collapse of CIVILIZATION. This is not referring to a fast fall off of oil production from an oil field, and you know it. You are shark jumping again.
rockdoc123 wrote:Futilitist wrote:And, once again, ROCKMAN, the Seneca Cliff being referred to is a Seneca Cliff for CIVILIZATION, i.e. a rapid collapse of CIVILIZATION. This is not referring to a fast fall off of oil production from an oil field, and you know it. You are shark jumping again.
and perhaps you should go back to page 1 of this thread which is clearly talking about oil....not civilization. He is not off topic at all as far as I can see.
rockdoc123 wrote:No need to turn this in to yet another ETP thread.
Revi wrote:Seneca Cliff
Postby Revi » Mon 24 Oct 2016, 11:40:34
The idea of the Seneca Cliff has been getting out there quite a lot lately. Uno Bardi, who worked on the first Limits to Growth coined the term to describe the quick deterioration of a culture once a peak was reached. I think it was first spoken by Seneca back in Roman times when he said "increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid."
It's been on Zero Hedge, SRSRocco report and a lot of other places lately.
It makes a lot of sense in light of what the Hills Group is saying. Basically that the useful energy in each barrel of oil is going down and down as we get it in more and more difficult ways. They say that by 2022 there won't be any net energy in a barrel of oil. Scary stuff. What do you think? I think they might be right, and that the backside of Hubbert's Peak may be way steeper than the way up!
rockdoc123 wrote:Lord knows we have too many already and the current supply/demand drive on oil price sort of makes it all a bit of a fantasy don't you think?
You are the one living in a fantasy, rockdoc. The current supply/demand drive on oil price?!? Oh, you must mean the Saudi jawboning/wild speculation drive on oil price. LOL.
vtsnowedin wrote:Looking at current events and conditions I see a stock market crash on the order of the 1929 great depression or larger being above a 50/50 proposition.
Back in 1929 they lost 30 billion in a couple of days. convert that to gold then(which you could) and to gold today which price changes hourly and you get about 1.2 TRILLION dollars that just disappeared overnight. .
vtsnowedin wrote:Looking at current events and conditions I see a stock market crash on the order of the 1929 great depression or larger being above a 50/50 proposition.
Back in 1929 they lost 30 billion in a couple of days. convert that to gold then(which you could) and to gold today which price changes hourly and you get about 1.2 TRILLION dollars that just disappeared overnight. .
vtsnowedin wrote:Looking at current events and conditions I see a stock market crash on the order of the 1929 great depression or larger being above a 50/50 proposition.
Revi wrote:I have been talking with people over at the ETP thread, and they seem to say that by 2022 oil ceases to be a net energy gain for the economy, so something has to happen before then. Here are their predictions for the price of oil:
Next year the max will be around $54.18 per barrel, 2018 - $46.16, 2019 - $26.88 and then around $23 as the industry cannibalizes itself. They say it might stay around $23 for a while.
What this means is that the industry won't be able to get the stuff at a profit any more. We have all seen industries that continue on long after they stop making money, like dairy farming, but this one is much larger and more important.
Maybe there will be artisanal oil producers making some oil happen some places, but most of it is going to be in big trouble and soon!
There's your backside of the Seneca Cliff!
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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