[sparky]

.
Someone , I think it was Rockman , pointed out that nobody use crude , everybody use refined products

refining is a big industry , a critical industry
the "West " used to be the big exporters of oil products ,
now all the big refineries are being build by other people ,
the old refineries often enough are closed down .
importing products means ,
it's more costly for the trade balance ,
there is more unemployment at home,
there is an erosion of technical ability

[ROCKMAN]

Misterno - It may sound like I being a smartass but I'm not. The price of oil isn't determined by how much the KSA or anyone else produces. It's simply the demand/supply dynamic: the more folks with the money to buy a commodity the higher the price. Back in '85 when the KSA was producing much less oil was selling for around $20-30/bbl because they held oil off the market. But the they opened the taps and supply greatly exceeded demand. And proces fell about 70%. But back in 'early '09 oil prices plunged again as there weren't enough buyers. But that didn't last long: China went it an pip buying feeding frenzy and began the price ramp up that led us to where we are today. The only thing that will knock down oil prices significantly is another global recession IMHO.

So be careful for what you wish for. LOL.

[Pops]

Can someone answer this question?

KSA is exporting at the highest level in 12 yrs, then why is oil price still not coming down?

Also US production is all time high.

I don't understand.

No big secret, "normal" growth wants much, much more, but the highest price the economy can afford isn't bringing any more oil to market. The common name for that situation is Peak Oil.
from Westexas:




Don't buy that "Peak Demand" bit, the economy wants lots more oil, not less and like ROCK says, don't wish for cheaper oil at this point either, as it is the oil companies are slowing investment in future production.
.

[dolanbaker]

Can someone answer this question?

KSA is exporting at the highest level in 12 yrs, then why is oil price still not coming down?

Also US production is all time high.

I don't understand.

No big secret, "normal" growth wants much, much more, but the highest price the economy can afford isn't bringing any more oil to market. The common name for that situation is Peak Oil.
from Westexas:




Don't buy that "Peak Demand" bit, the economy wants lots more oil, not less and like ROCK says, don't wish for cheaper oil at this point either, as it is the oil companies are slowing investment in future production.
.

I really think that westexas should update that chart with actual growth figures as it will still show a shortfall, a smaller one but a real one.

[dolanbaker]

I am referring to the extrapolated oil consumption growth that assumed that economic growth would continue at the same rate, it is this lack of economic growth that should show up now quite clearly in the chart.

If corrected for actual global growth, the ANE would be nearer to 12M bbl/d.
The chart has to assume that oil share of global energy requirements remains the same, in reality of course other fuels are being substituted wherever possible. It is also clear now that the reduced ANE is stunting economic activity.

[dolanbaker]

I agree and the point I am making is that if westexas added in the affects of the reduced growth of the past eight years it would still show a shortfall in ANE, thus clarifying the fact that growth is so dependent on the additional oil coming on stream.

However, in China & India they have decided to use coal as their primary fuel source, so the affects of the reducing ANE are really just a problem for the west. When western consumers get priced out, China & India will buy all the "spare" oil regardless.

[dolanbaker]

I think that it is more important to get the message across that it's the lack of supply that is suppressing economic growth rather than the other way around. By highlighting the fact that there is still an ANE shortfall even taking into account the lack of economic growth, this will strengthen the peak oil message, as in it's a supply problem not a demand problem.

As for Chindia's coal consumption, I've seen charts that show increases in coal consumption rising at a scale far higher than their oil consumption, just don't have them to hand.

[Graeme]

Saudi oil exports hit SR472bn in 5 months

Saudi Arabia's oil exports reached 1.17 billion barrels in the first five months of this year 2014, with proceeds amounting to SR472.8 billion, local media said quoting an expert.

On the other hand, domestic consumption during the five-month period stood at nearly 317 million barrels, or 21 percent of the total output of the same period, Fahad bin Jumaa was quoted by Al-Riyadh daily as saying.

The figures come on the back of an announcement made by Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali Al-Naimi in mid-May saying that the Kingdom is the world’s biggest oil exporter and is ready to supply markets with more crude oil if tension escalates between Russia and the West in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis.

He stated that the Kingdom’s current oil production stands at 9.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) and is prepared to increase production capacity to 12.5 million bpd.

arabnews

[joewp]

You know when you have the feeling you've heard it before?

2006:Saudi Arabia plans to increase crude oil production to 12.5 million bpd by 2009

Saudi Arabia has planned to increase its production of crude oil to 12.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2009, Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) reported on Wednesday.

2005:Saudi Arabia: A Whole New Drill

The cost of hundreds of new wells and related infrastructure could exceed $14 billion. A spokesman for Saudi Aramco says the national oil company is even looking at "scenarios to bolster [production] to even 15 million barrels per day" if demand warrants.

The Saudi's have been pulling the world's chains for quite some time. I have a real problem believing that they can ever do 12.5mbd, even with heavy crap nobody wants (or can use).

I think we're really close to seeing a decline in total liquids within the next few years. Unless of course they start counting other "liquids" like fracking fluid.