Not only do such reservoirs have some of the slowest decline rates out there they are the most stable and thus easiest to ACCURATELY predict future production volumes.
the amount of work ARAMCO has done towards understanding reservoir dynamics eclipses anything I've ever seen including that by two of the multinationals. Everything you can imagine is input into their finite element model including the laboratory information they have regarding switching wettability through time. I can't imagine a less riskier prediction.
The other advantage in dealing with a mature water drive reservoir: you have already spent the capex for the oil/water separation and water disposal infrastructure.
This was all accomplished by ARAMCO in the period from 2005 through 2010 in their megaprojects where a massive amount of additional water and gas handling capacity was installed.
I seriously doubt we'll see such details from Aramco.
They will be listed on at least one of NYSE or London, both of which means they have transparency requirements the same as any publicly traded US company.
The KSA might have an "independent" audit of its proved reserves but that tells you nothing about the net cash flow.
well actually it does given the reserve report specifies economic runs over the remaining life of the reserves in order to arrive at NPV. That includes cashflow projections and is generally reported both before tax and after tax. And it isn't the KSA but rather ARAMCO that will be an independent company paying taxes to the Saudi Arabian gov't.
Has Aramco announced what its stock will yield?
Given they haven't even chosen a place to list or the firms which will run with the IPO it isn't surprising they haven't said anything. It's a process. When the IPO is announced the prospectus will outline the intial trading value of a share plus what dividend yield might be attached. I would be surprised not to see a dividend given the companies that don't have dividends are those that have considerable potential to grow further from where they are.
Bottom line: no one can calculate what a share of Aramco stock will be worth when the IPO is issued.
Well the firms running the IPO do just that, calculate the price for listing which is then agreed upon with the exchange. The list price will likely only be important to the major investment houses who will have likely picked up most of the initial offering. Whatever is left over as market float will almost certainly trade at a premium for a short time (there will be investors who want the shares as a long term investment) and then after a few days the arbs will move in and the price will retreat, possibly back to the initial offering price or potentially slightly lower. This is a fairly predictable pattern of trading for most IPOs.