Plantagenet wrote:The WSJ is reporting that Saudi Arabia is not going to go through with its plan to sell shares in Aramco and its oil assets
doubts-grow-aramco-ipo-will-ever-happen-
The sale has already been postposed several times. The reason its looking like the whole things is going to be cancelled is that Saudi is unwilling to disclose information about the condition of their oil assets and oil reserves, apparently because they don't want the world to know how close to depletion Ghawar and their other legacy oil fields are in.
jawagord wrote:When has KSA ever produced 12 mmBBL/D?
https://tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arab ... production
The sale has already been postposed several times. The reason its looking like the whole things is going to be cancelled is that Saudi is unwilling to disclose information about the condition of their oil assets and oil reserves, apparently because they don't want the world to know how close to depletion Ghawar and their other legacy oil fields are in.
Officials with Aramco, which is short for Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the country's energy ministry or government did not immediately respond to request for comment.
This is consistent with news reports that KSA is telling Trump its impossible for them to raise their production to bring down oil prices.
The sale has already been postposed several times.
Please quote from the article where it says that.
Audit finds Aramco oil reserves slightly higher than reported: sourcesAPRIL 29, 2018 - An audit of Saudi Aramco’s oil reserves - an essential part of the preparatory work for its planned initial public offering - has found the state oil giant to have higher reserves than it previously reported. the independent external audit has found the proven oil reserves to be at least 270 billion barrels, which is slightly higher than the 260.8 billion barrels the company reported in its 2016 annual review. Aramco’s official reserves figures were “more than confirmed” said one source. “This is good for the company’s valuation.”
A reserves total significantly above or below the 261 billion figure would likely affect Aramco’s potential market value in the listing and is being closely watched by investors. Dallas-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton, and Gaffney, Cline and Associates, part of Baker Hughes, are involved in the auditing.
Cog wrote:Planty ... The IPO is not conditional on how many barrels Aramco can produce and never has relied on that number. Other well known factors, such as exposure to lawsuits is much more likely. Going public with a company exposes you to a lot of oversight that a private company does not have.
kublikhan wrote:Looks like you took quite a few liberties in interpreting that article Plant. First off, the article says doubts have emerged. It did not say it was offically cancelled.
kublikhan wrote: Second, the article says nothing about KSA peaking.
kublikhan wrote:Third, it does not list the reason for the delays/doubts as having anything to do with ... unwillingness to release reserve numbers.
The WSJ article cites ARAMCO insiders as saying they fear making disclosures during the IPO process. Considering that the principal data that ARAMCO has that is relevant to the IPO is all oil related, I don't see how you can rule out the idea that ARAMCO does't want to make full disclosures about their oil data as part of the IPO based on their oil reserves.
Because this is nothing new. There have been anonymous insiders voicing skepticism about the IPO from the beginning. Just last year the Financial Times reported Saudi Arabia was shopping around for a private sale instead of an IPO. CNBC also reported last year that shelving the IPO would make sense. And just because an IPO doesn't happen, that doesn't mean that no sale at all would happen. Several sources have stated they are floating the idea of a private sale.Plantagenet wrote:It also said the IPO sale has been postponed several times and insiders at ARAMCO say the IPO will never happen.
I don't get why people don't understand the significance of this. The WSJ has written an article giving us a peek inside the secretive world of ARAMCO and KSA. The WSJ article provides early warning the world that the KSA IPO isn't likely to happen. Yes, it hasn't been officially cancelled yet---thats why the WSJ story is such big news. Its whats called a "scoop" by newsmen. The WSJ is breaking an important inside story here. Its like the stories warning that ENRON was about to collapse before it collapsed....knowledge is power and getting the info first is very powerful. IMHO People should pay attention to good journalism like this.
The oil price fell through the floor in 2015 and 2016. And for 2017 and 2018 they were confined from increasing production because of the OPEC deal. This does not imply Saudi production has peaked. It implies they market was oversupplied in 2015-2016 and Saudi Arabia took steps to correct the imbalance in 2017-2018. And you are misrepresenting the NY Times article. Trump was asking for Saudi Arabia for a large 2 million bpd increase. However the analysts said a max increase of 700,000 bpd in the short term was more likely. Trump was pushing a political agenda. He wants to starve Iran out of oil revenue. This has nothing to do with a peak and is all about politics.Plantagenet wrote:No, but a quick look at the history of KSA oil production shows current oil production is well below the peak it hit in April 2015. And Trump just asked them to produce more, and the NYTIMES and others are reporting that Saudi can't do it. That means the April 2015 peak isn't very likely to be surpassed.
They didn't say they feared making disclosures during the IPO process. They said they feared the additional scrutiny going public would bring. As Cog mentioned, anytime a company goes public it is exposed to additional scrutiny that a private company does not have. That is one of the reasons the Saudis were exploring the option of a private sale as opposed to an IPO.Plantagenet wrote:The WSJ article cites ARAMCO insiders as saying they fear making disclosures during the IPO process.
IPO versus private placement: What's the difference?IPO versus private placement: What's the difference?
Private companies that seek to raise capital through issuing securities have two options: offering securities to the public or through a private placement. Regulations on publicly traded securities are subject to more scrutiny than those for private placements.
Are you ready to go public?Initiating an IPO is one of the biggest decisions a private company can make. This is especially true in today’s environment, where investor and regulatory scrutiny are high, and investment dollars remain scarce.
What’s the bottom line?
Getting ready for an IPO can be a daunting exercise even under ideal circumstances. In an era of increased investor scrutiny and regulatory complexity, the effort can sometimes feel insurmountable.
It's not insider information. It's public:pstarr wrote:How do you know that?Cog wrote:You can add the USA to that list of pre-peak countries pstarr. Much to the consternation of the doomers. Double-peak anyone?
All you have are the assurances of rockdentist, an oil company intern. I have years of research, insider information (which I can not share with you. You understand why, right ) and a deep knowledge of its oil geology.
June was already close to SA's peak production. July will likely exceed it:pstarr wrote:Not the USA, but SA and the rest of OPEC is long past peak.
Saudis Boost June Oil Production Close To All-Time HighSaudi Arabia has increased its oil production this month by 700,000 bpd to 10.70 million bpd, very close to its highest-ever production of 10.72 million bpd from November 2016. “The Saudi number for June will be very, very high,” an industry source tracking Saudi Arabia’s oil production told Reuters on Friday. “Surprisingly high.” For July, the Saudis plan to pump around 11 million bpd of crude oil.
What part of public information are you not getting?pstarr wrote:So it's you! You are the guy with the inside information? Wow. And I can say I knew you when you were just a poser on peakoildotcom
Just a suspicion on my part, but its likely the amount of money being siphoned out by the royals would be of concern to an investor. In a public offering, you have to disclose salaries and where money is spent. A money trail if you will. That is what I think is the sticking point on the transparency issue involved with a public offering of stock.
rockdoc123 wrote:. Saudi Arabia is part of OPEC and they cannot independently decide to raise production
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