Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:Anyone have a handy list of the top ten world oil producers that is current?
Anyone but me notice that the glut seems to be winding down pretty fast and we might find ourselves back to the races by next spring?
AdamB wrote:Tanada wrote:Anyone have a handy list of the top ten world oil producers that is current?
Anyone but me notice that the glut seems to be winding down pretty fast and we might find ourselves back to the races by next spring?
Races? Do you mean yet more peak oils? It is fascinating that the sine wave model of oil production hasn't been picked up by the talking heads of the world by now.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:AdamB wrote:Tanada wrote:Anyone have a handy list of the top ten world oil producers that is current?
Anyone but me notice that the glut seems to be winding down pretty fast and we might find ourselves back to the races by next spring?
Races? Do you mean yet more peak oils? It is fascinating that the sine wave model of oil production hasn't been picked up by the talking heads of the world by now.
I mean six months from now, around March 2018, the world oil demand will be very close to world oil production and price will start inching up to whatever level is necessary for tight oil fracked in the USA/Argentina/world wide production to maintain supply.
Tanada wrote:So far the USA has been drilling at about half the 2013 rate for around a year now and so long as no major interruption in a large producer takes place the USA could oddly find itself in the position as producer of last resort.
Tanada wrote:If I turn out to be correct for a change (laughing at myself) then world oil prices in 2018 will be doing the same as they were in 2005, creeping upward in fits and starts as people once again get conditioned to higher oil prices. It wasn't actually all that long ago that WTI was in the $80/$105 band and it stayed there for half a decade. Rather like your sign wave theory I believe that having spent the last two years on the down side of the wave we are going to start heading back in the other direction.
Tanada wrote: I don't know when we will get back to $80/bbl but I am pretty sure all the big producers find the prospect a cheerful outcome. The biggest have used this recent glut in the familiar fashion to snap up a few bankrupt small fry and now that they have them higher prices will greatly aid the bottom line, and boost their stock prices as well.
ROCKMAN wrote:But given the top 3 (the KSA, USA and Russia) are all within about 10% of each other the ranking doesn't seem too important IMHO. For instance while the KSA produces more oil then the US we supply the world with more consumable fossil fuel products then any other country. No one in Europe or S. America burns KSA oil in their cars. But they burn a lot of motor fuel produced by US refineries.
vtsnowedin wrote:WTI hit $50.00 /barrel today. A commentator on Fox business said that part of the reason beyond OPEC production cuts was that the EIA had over estimated USA production by some 500,000 barrels a day.
The story in the link does not have his comments but it might come up later today.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... -2004.html
tita wrote:vtsnowedin wrote:WTI hit $50.00 /barrel today. A commentator on Fox business said that part of the reason beyond OPEC production cuts was that the EIA had over estimated USA production by some 500,000 barrels a day.
The story in the link does not have his comments but it might come up later today.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... -2004.html
In june, EIA weekly estimations were overestimated by 230kb/d. We don't have exact production figures for july or august. So, this kind of "breaking news" is subject to a lot of uncertainties. Especially two weeks after Harvey, as production has maybe not entirely resumed. Anyway, the 500kb/d is probably excessive. But we won't know it before 2 months.
It might appear that way if you only look at US stocks and only at crude oil. Unable to make a measurable dent in global oversupply, Saudi Arabia choose a new tactic: Limit supplies to the market that is most visible with the best data: the US. By limiting oil exports to the US, the US crude oil stockpile is drawing down faster than it normally would. However this doesn't mean global stockpiles are falling as fast. Further, much of the decline in crude oil stockpiles was replaced with a build in refined fuel stockpiles. If you look at OECD commercial inventory the situation is not quite so rosy:Tanada wrote:Anyone but me notice that the glut seems to be winding down pretty fast and we might find ourselves back to the races by next spring?
SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOKOECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)
2015 2016 2017 2018
2970 2967 2995 3066
Even if the oil market comes into balance in 2018, to bring down oil & refined oil stocks to average values will take demand overshooting supply for a good amount of time. That is why the IEA has a longer time horizon for an oil spike than 2018: IEA predicts oil supply shortage and price spike within three yearsTanada wrote:If I turn out to be correct for a change (laughing at myself) then world oil prices in 2018 will be doing the same as they were in 2005, creeping upward in fits and starts as people once again get conditioned to higher oil prices. It wasn't actually all that long ago that WTI was in the $80/$105 band and it stayed there for half a decade. Rather like your sign wave theory I believe that having spent the last two years on the down side of the wave we are going to start heading back in the other direction. I don't know when we will get back to $80/bbl but I am pretty sure all the big producers find the prospect a cheerful outcome. The biggest have used this recent glut in the familiar fashion to snap up a few bankrupt small fry and now that they have them higher prices will greatly aid the bottom line, and boost their stock prices as well.
kublikhan wrote:It might appear that way if you only look at US stocks and only at crude oil. Unable to make a measurable dent in global oversupply, Saudi Arabia choose a new tactic: Limit supplies to the market that is most visible with the best data: the US. By limiting oil exports to the US, the US crude oil stockpile is drawing down faster than it normally would. However this doesn't mean global stockpiles are falling as fast. Further, much of the decline in crude oil stockpiles was replaced with a build in refined fuel stockpiles. If you look at OECD commercial inventory the situation is not quite so rosy:Tanada wrote:Anyone but me notice that the glut seems to be winding down pretty fast and we might find ourselves back to the races by next spring?SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOKOECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)
2015 2016 2017 2018
2970 2967 2995 3066Even if the oil market comes into balance in 2018, to bring down oil & refined oil stocks to average values will take demand overshooting supply for a good amount of time. That is why the IEA has a longer time horizon for an oil spike than 2018: IEA predicts oil supply shortage and price spike within three yearsTanada wrote:If I turn out to be correct for a change (laughing at myself) then world oil prices in 2018 will be doing the same as they were in 2005, creeping upward in fits and starts as people once again get conditioned to higher oil prices. It wasn't actually all that long ago that WTI was in the $80/$105 band and it stayed there for half a decade. Rather like your sign wave theory I believe that having spent the last two years on the down side of the wave we are going to start heading back in the other direction. I don't know when we will get back to $80/bbl but I am pretty sure all the big producers find the prospect a cheerful outcome. The biggest have used this recent glut in the familiar fashion to snap up a few bankrupt small fry and now that they have them higher prices will greatly aid the bottom line, and boost their stock prices as well.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:the same kind of creeping price rise that we experienced in 2004-2006.
SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOKOECD Commercial Inventory (end-of-year)
2015 2016 2017 2018
2970 2967 2995 3066
Crude Oil: A Ten-Year Look At Inventories Through The Driving SeasonThe driving season is traditionally a period of peak demand for crude oil and refined products. The period between the Fourth of July and Labor Day, a.k.a. the driving season, is traditionally a period of de-stocking for both crude oil and refined products in the U.S. as refineries increase their runs and consumers jump into their cars for trips to the beach. A drawdown of inventories during the driving season is essential to prevent imbalances in supply and demand for crude oil during the shoulder months. [During peak driving season, a drawddown of 25-30 million barrels of inventory is the average US drawdown.] Since there is seasonality in crude oil utilization, de-stocking of inventories during the summer is important to prevent a glut of oil from forming during the shoulder season (fall) when refineries take some of their capacity offline for maintenance.
OPEC Faces ‘Long Haul’ to Deplete Swollen Oil Stocks, IEA SaysOPEC won’t clear the global oil glut any time soon since any increase in price continues to bolster rival production from U.S. shale, according to the International Energy Agency.
“If they wish to achieve the reduction of oil stocks down to the five-year average, they’re going to have to dig in for the long haul. Rebalancing is a stubborn process. The resilience of the U.S. shale producers and the flexibility, the ability to bring on more oil at relatively low cost and short notice, means any signs of life -- as far as the price is concerned -- encourages more U.S. shale. The price is self-capped.”
asg70 wrote:Tanada wrote:the same kind of creeping price rise that we experienced in 2004-2006.
And yet the world is a far different place now. There are now a total of three benign market forces that can combine to limit oil prices.
1) fracking picks up again
2) middle-east production caps ease
3) EV sales take off
So the likelihood of oil prices spiking to a crisis point are low.
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