[Revi]

With the impending energy shortages coming, why wouldn't sail to rail work again?
I envision a system that's simple. Using existing forklifts and exactics you could load cargo from a sailing vessel onto a rail connection and get it around with a fraction of the energy we use to get stuff around nowadays. It could be loaded into small trucks to get it to the destination. It's loaded with much smaller amounts than the way we get things around nowadays, but it could work. At the dock there would be a crane needed, a bunch of forklifts and of course a sailing vessel with a big open deck. Why wouldn't it work?

[Newfie]

Revi,

Huge cargo ships are among the most economical of modern inventions.

The real question is why do we need to ship so much stuff? And so far?

Thats where real gains lay.

But to answer your question…see this short video.
https://youtu.be/GYNKW_w95lA

[Pops]

First, there will be fossils around for many years, they just won't be be wasted as much.
2, the reason we have the system we do is cost. It is much cheaper to import stuff from cheap labor countries than make it here, even though a container from China now costs $15k instead of $1.5k
C) as energy costs rise, people will have less discretionary income to buy stuff from anywhere.
IV: More stuff will be made locally because it doesn't make any logical sense to fly tomatoes to Missouri from Peru in January—or ship bananas either, LOL

You're probably right though, electric rail might come back, though it's hard to make steel without fossils. Surely won't be for chotchkies though.

[AdamB]

With the impending energy shortages coming, why wouldn't sail to rail work again?

Well, with all the ACTUAL energy shortages we've had since the 1970's, it obviously didn't happen during real ones in our time, so why would you suppose it would happen during the next one? As opposed to the usual response to those shortages, and none of those solutions included transoceanic shipping going to sail. Rail sure, but rail has been here during ALL energy shortages, like the gasoline scare of 1916, the claimed peak in US production claimed by the USGS back in 1919, when the Secretary of Interior was writing articles entitled "Are We Running Out of Oil" during WWII, I mean rail was with us through those and the rationing of fuel in the 1970's and crazy high gasoline prices of $1.00/gal and 6 peak oils this century alone.

No sails needed to show up, but rail was always there. Probably always will be I imagine.

[Plantagenet]

You're right that diesel-power cargo ships aren't very energy efficient and are huge producers of CO2. They need to be relegated to the past.

But what will replace them?

Sail? Seems unlikely.

IMHO its more likely we'll see nuclear power cargo ships.

If Bill Gates and similar minded folks ever finish designing the promised small cheap modular and safe mini-nukes they've been working on for decades, cargo ships would be an ideal place to use them.


NS Savanah.....prototype for nuclear powered cargo ships

Cheers!

[Shaved Monkey]

Major downside of sail and containers is the tilt.
The nuclear option will require a lot of security and trust
Who owns them and the tech ?, pirates ?, ports willing to have them ,where do they get scrapped ?

[Doly]

You're right that diesel-power cargo ships aren't very energy efficient and are huge producers of CO2.

Diesel-powered cargo ships are one of the most energy-efficient, if not the most, to move cargo.

And if you wanted to eliminate even the relatively little diesel they use, there are modern ideas for sails that are quite interesting. I remember reading about a ship that used a large kite as a sail.

[Newfie]

Doly,

I encourage you to watch the video I linked in Post 2, it discusses the kite and other options.

Bottom line, air power (sails, etc.) can reduce a ships fuel consumption (in ideal conditions) but no one is talking about pure sail vessels.

[Shaved Monkey]

Duel fuel might be the option until the tech catches up.

Could be solar and/or ammonia


NYK, Japan Engine, IHI Power Systems, Nihon Shipyard and ship certifier Nippon Kaiji Kyokai aim to develop and operate an ammonia-fuelled tug boat in the 2024 financial year and an ammonia-fuelled ammonia gas carrier in the 2026 year.

“To lower emissions from ships, liquefied natural gas(LNG) will be the most appropriate fuel to replace fuel oil for the time being,” Tsutomu Yokoyama, general manager of NYK, told reporters.

“Ammonia-fuelled ships won’t be in full swing until 2030s as global supply chains of the fuel are needed,” he said.



https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-a ... NL1N2RM0Y6

That ammonia will probably be coming from Australia as a part of our future solar to hydrogen plants

https://reneweconomy.com.au/ammonia-may ... n-economy/

[Revi]

Here's a proposal. We move things along the coast like we did up until less than 100 years ago. There were coasters operating in New England until at least the 1930's. There were fishing fleets going out even after that in Nova Scotia. I know it sounds like a quaint notion, but there could be a place for sail powered vessels again. Maybe controlled by computers. Every summer the harbors fill with sail powered vessels here in Maine. Getting around in them is definitely done even now. Imagine a time in the not too distant future when some of those fiberglass vessels have thousands of pounds of food or goods in them. It's not hard to do.
https://unctad.org/news/sail-cargo-char ... e-shipping

[Revi]

I guess those Canadians are already on it. With the assistance of Michelin.
https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/v ... ction=view

[Newfie]

Revi;

We have cut all the trees suitable for shipbuilding.

Resin prices follow oil, damn expensive even now. Many new boats are structurally insufficient for open ocean usage.

Shipping will decline, we will make more locally, we will use less. But it will be forced upon us.

[Pops]

Shipping will decline, we will make more locally, we will use less. But it will be forced upon us.

That's about the gist of it. I have no doubt that without the Energy Fairy blessing us with Mr. Fusion or some such, lots of what's now seems old and quaint will rediscovered. The question is whether society at large decides to invest proactively in a fossil free low power, low growth future future or if we invest what capital we have left on killing each other off.

My guess, today, is we'll have a pretty rapid decline from the fracking fraud down to wherever conventional is at sometime in the next 20-30 years. Probably at about the time lots of MRC wells water out. Right now conventional isn't falling too fast, obviously that will change. By 2050-60 or so we'll be back down to 20-25Gb (35Gb in 2019). And of course the economy "wants" production to grow at a couple of percent a year so by 2055 production without any effort to transition "should be" 70Gb. The difference between 25 & 70Gb is a lot of evaporated capital.

That is IF oil prices stay high enough to continue pumping and demand can afford to pay, which is doubtful. And EVs & RE don't grow fast enough to displace fossils.

OTOH, lots of stuff can happen, including vast fraud and lying in the fossil industry/politics could make all the forecasts moot. Rocdoc argued up and down that US oil companies never lie, because SEC. Well there is FBI and banks are robbed daily anyway. Fraud story here. Pretty well everyone believes OPEC lies about paper barrels, and with good reason. Heck, KSA is trying to pawn it's oil fields off and if that ain't a clue.

So peak or not is turning out to be less important than I thought, we're in trouble already
.

[Newfie]

Pops;

Agree with all that.

O only add that while there is some low hanging fruit we can change with relative ease are other factors that will he very difficult. I am thinking heat. That requires moving to a new location, but that location may not align with production and shipping requirements.

At some point there will be a big squeeze.

[Revi]

My idea is to simplify loading and unloading. Rail could be just a local line, like the one that used to go from Belfast, ME to Benton, ME. Unload the ship with cranes, plunk it onto a train and move it to the destination. Take it off on the other end with a fork lift. They are already contemplating moving more stuff by sail. Those clever Canadians are already on it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntCZG2pImSE

[Revi]

Here's another vid about possibilities:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L86znpiEzX0

[theluckycountry]

If Bill Gates and similar minded folks ever finish designing the promised small cheap modular and safe mini-nukes they've been working on for decades, cargo ships would be an ideal place to use them.

Cheap! That's the key, It's around $100 million for a submarine reactor and about $200 million for a reactor the size of that required by a aircraft carrier, and they have two such.
www.ewp.rpi.edu/hartford/~ernesto/F2010 ... ulsion.pdf

By comparison a bulk carrier costs about $40 million new. Personally I think the funds to explore the prospect is just more money in the pockets of the greedy.

Last week, Rolls-Royce said it had raised 455 million pounds to fund the development of its small modular nuclear reactors, with almost half of the financing coming from the U.K. government. The plan is to build 16 such reactors by 2050

DOE Awards $160M to TerraPower and X-Energy to Build Advanced Nuclear Plants. With up to another $3.2 billion earmarked for federal support.

Will probably end just like these.

July 31, 2020
(Reuters) - The owner of a big Nevada solar-thermal power plant that received $737 million in loans from the U.S. Department of Energy filed for bankruptcy on Thursday, according to a court filing, potentially leaving U.S. taxpayers with a whopping bill.

Solyndra was a manufacturer of solar cells based in Fremont, California. Heavily promoted as a leader in the Clean Energy sector for its unusual technology, ... About two years after the Obama administration co-signed $535 million loans to Solyndra, the company filed for bankruptcy on September 1, 2011

[Newfie]

Hard to know where to put this tidbit. But it is a diesel motor out of a boat so here it goes.

A fun watch even if you just zip through.

https://youtu.be/9mTWic4qgm4

[Tanada]

Hard to know where to put this tidbit. But it is a diesel motor out of a boat so here it goes.

A fun watch even if you just zip through.

https://youtu.be/9mTWic4qgm4

Inline four cylinder and despite the growths on it the time underwater is an open question, probably under two decades I would suspect.

[Newfie]

Hardy critters; engine and man.