[dissident]

This thread is about Russia and finance, accordingly I tried to sort out all the Ukraine conflict stuff and put it in the Ukraine conflict thread here,
russia-ukraine-crisis-pt-7-t70440-180.html

Please try and stay on topic it is a big pain to sort this stuff out.

The effort to clean it up is appreciated.

OT:

It looks like the CBR has succeeded in stabilizing the ruble:

http://rt.com/business/223391-ruble-sup ... rking-imf/

The ruble’s rollercoaster path may be finally heading toward stability, according to the International Monetary Fund head of mission Bikas Joshi. The analyst applauds the government actions taken to quell the ruble’s sharp volatility.

[AgentR11]

Are they "calling" it stable at 65? Chart for the last couple weeks looks like a fairly smooth rise from the spike / crash in Dec; but seems to me to be too soon to call it stable.... 65 is definitely a really good deal for exporters from Russia; so I doubt it could go much further.

[radon1]

The rule of thumb used to be 30-35 roubles per dollar at 100USD per barrel (Brent), to have a balanced budget. This takes us to 60-70 roubles per dollar at 50USD per barrel, 120-140 roubles per dollar at 25USD per barrel and so on. But this rule may no longer work.

[dissident]

The rule of thumb used to be 30-35 roubles per dollar at 100USD per barrel (Brent), to have a balanced budget. This takes us to 60-70 roubles per dollar at 50USD per barrel, 120-140 roubles per dollar at 25USD per barrel and so on. But this rule may no longer work.

Seems consistent. But $25 oil will kill all non-conventional production, stone cold dead. The tar sands operations in Canada cannot function below $40. They need something above $35 to cover their costs. I am referring to the cheapest bitumen extraction operations via open pit mining and not the fancy in situ schemes.

Don't expect the oil price to fall below $40 per barrel for any period of time that matters. In all likelihood it will go over $80 this year. Of course, that assumes demand will not collapse.

[AgentR11]

Possible casualty of ruble free float and Mystral mischief.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation ... 26342.html

The underlying problem is that France doesn't want to license the complete manufacture of the plane outside France. Its being sold to the Western public as if India is asking for a guarantee for what it builds; but its really about is the technology transfer part of the RFP. I think its some electronic counter measures stuff.

On the other hand, India can buy a bunch of extra Russian Sukhoi-30's manufactured in India as is.

Considering that India could easily run afoul of US interests with regard to Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc; and end up sanctioned (as it has been before)... I predict a gloomy outlook for Dassault Aviation.