[radon1]

You guys have been living in a seriously distorted economy for a long time; with the government using the "bread and circus" routine to keep everyone more or less grumbling along.

The question is, who is paying for the transition. In the old Russian tradition, this is the population. The bureaucracy and "management" are simply raising their rates to compensate for the rouble's fall, preying upon the population. Thus they maintain their lifestyles, while the population pays for it. If you look at the change in the rates, it is proportional to the rouble's decline. Or greater.

[dissident]

BTW: we will see in a few months how much the Russian GDP shrinks in 2015.

Forgive me if I find Swedish sources about as credible as their Russian submarine stories.

The 5% figure is an example of rumour mill propagation. Once Moody's and some other biased organizations issued this "forecast" and the MSM started spreading it, then it became established "fact".

Let's recall that the originators of the 5% BS were the same ones who predicted Ukraine's GDP would contract only by 2% in 2015. But the reality is:

1st quarter 2015 year-on-year GDP change:

Ukraine: -17.6%
Russia: -2.2% (http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosst ... 78e6889fb6)

Funny how people only cherry pick the "facts" they like.

[Withnail]

[

The 5% figure is an example of rumour mill propagation. Once Moody's and some other biased organizations issued this "forecast" and the MSM started spreading it, then it became established "fact".

That's right, that's how it's done these days. Doesn't matter what idiot (e.g. Eliot Higgins/Bellingcat) makes an absurd claim, the important thing is that the claim is made and can then be parroted as fact without further examination.

Newspapers have morphed into misinformation services since the actual news is available long before they can report it in today's world.

[AgentR11]

It is down about 2%.

That is called a depression. Its not necessarily a big deal. Depression is not about magnitude. Its about duration. The duration of the ruble transition and drop in oil price was long enough to match the definition.

It could be down ONE SINGLE PERCENT over this time period... and it would still be a depression.

NOT a big deal

The Western reader is left with the opportunity to believe its a big deal. Its the narrative we're running with, Russia will implode...NOW.. BOOM... Putin is doomed. Eventually the press will tire of it, and the people will get bored with it; and Russia won't have imploded or anything else interesting... and no one will notice or call the propagandists to account. It'll just be forgotten in the West.

[AgentR11]

The question is, who is paying for the transition. In the old Russian tradition, this is the population.

Of course its the population that pays for it. That is true everywhere, and it is the correct and appropriate result. Those in power, here, there, or otherwise, are not permitted to feel any discomfort or economic loss as a result of the hardships the people endure during various transitions.

Heck, our boy Poroshenko's the poster child; he and his family are making out like bandits, and the people of Ukraine are getting absolutely hosed.

If I had to pick a transition to suffer through, I'd pick Putin's over Poroshenko's or the other former soviet republics. Course, I like being an American better. (we make pancakes from wheat flour, not nasty buckwheat!) LOL

All that said, prices in Russia *now* are sane and appropriate for a market economy. Other than obvious results of inadequate distribution (say, fresh milk or fragile tropical fruit), most of the spot retail prices in Russia match the prices paid in the rest of the market economy world. That is important, if somewhat uncomfortable for the moment. Now yall need to do the second step and bring worker productivity/hour up to modern standards. Tough trick to manage, but its gotta happen. Failure will leave yall broken like Spain in the 19th and 20th Centuries, and for likely just as long.

[AgentR11]

b) The low productivity of Russian workers (Russian GDP is as large/small as Italy's, this with a population of 140 million people) leads on one hand to a low unemployment, but on the other to severe problems of the Russian armed forces to get people as professional NCOs.

c) To improve productivity reqiures foreign investments and access to modern technology, this is on halt due to the Ukrainian crisis. For me there is the real chance that Russia will lose much more years.

(b), I agree with, AND PUTIN agrees with, he's whined eloquently about sucky Russian worker REAL output. Disagree completely with (c). The *last* thing Russia needs is foreign investment. Modern tech they're ok on; but the result of Russian labor is horrible. And its not so much quality; they can hit a spec; but they'll do it with twice the labor to produce half the output. What they need is to take a lesson from Xi and go head hunting, with as brutally wide a net as possible. A nice pile of dead oligarchs (tried with due justice, of course) and imprisoned (for life) bureaucrats would go a long way I think.

We like to think foreign investment would "help" Russia; but all it does is help liberate Russia of its remaining assets and leave nothing but candy bars and bmw's in its wake. Certainly good for us I suppose. But that will doom them to a fate worse than post-new world Spain. They must do most of the "investing" indigenously. Fortunately for them, they have the food and energy required to give them the decade or two they need; but they absolutely MUST cut the cord on oil funded luxuries and nicknacks. MUST.

Russian armed forces.. "severe" is an overstatement. They are almost exactly where we were post Vietnam/draftee version; where we started to create a professional force, with people staying on not because they had no other options, but because it was the career they wanted to pursue. I'd expect the Russian transition to take somewhat longer than ours; so again, it falls in that decade to two decade range. Interestingly enough, real combat operations aren't a deterrent to re-ups; its the harder things like base housing, pay, benefits (health, retirement), familial accommodations, Whether Jane Russian's kid gets the (near useless, but highly demanded) antibiotic (for a viral ear infection) has far more impact on whether Bob Russian stays for a second contract than whether he got shot at or had to shoot at some designated bad guys.

[Tanada]

If I had to pick a transition to suffer through, I'd pick Putin's over Poroshenko's or the other former soviet republics. Course, I like being an American better. (we make pancakes from wheat flour, not nasty buckwheat!) LOL

Hey speak for yourself! I grew up in Michigan and I adore Buckwheat pancakes, they actually have flavor too them. I like food with flavor. That doesn't mean so spicy you can't taste it like they do in the southwest either lol.

[kublikhan]

c) To improve productivity reqiures foreign investments and access to modern technology, this is on halt due to the Ukrainian crisis. For me there is the real chance that Russia will lose much more years.

Disagree completely with (c). The *last* thing Russia needs is foreign investment. Modern tech they're ok on; but the result of Russian labor is horrible. And its not so much quality; they can hit a spec; but they'll do it with twice the labor to produce half the output. What they need is to take a lesson from Xi and go head hunting, with as brutally wide a net as possible. A nice pile of dead oligarchs (tried with due justice, of course) and imprisoned (for life) bureaucrats would go a long way I think.

We like to think foreign investment would "help" Russia; but all it does is help liberate Russia of its remaining assets and leave nothing but candy bars and bmw's in its wake. Certainly good for us I suppose. But that will doom them to a fate worse than post-new world Spain. They must do most of the "investing" indigenously. Fortunately for them, they have the food and energy required to give them the decade or two they need; but they absolutely MUST cut the cord on oil funded luxuries and nicknacks. MUST.

How about some good old fashioned competition? Strip the monopolies of their status and force them to survive in a competitive environment.

The productivity levels of companies that work in competitive sectors are comparable to those of companies in the West, but monopolies trail far behind. Shamolin said Russia would not have a deficit in labor resources if workers were freed up from their unproductive activities in monopolistic organizations.

Asking workers to do more does not always lead to desirable results. When their workload increases, workers tend to flee to higher-paying, more relaxed jobs in the government monopolies, company managers said. he Tactical Missiles Corporation employs about 40,000 people, but there is a trend of workers going to higher-paying jobs at Rosatom and the defense industry. Ruslan Alikhanov, president of the FESCO transportation group, has a similar problem except that his workers go to Rosneft.

Economy Faces Stagnation Unless Productivity Increases

To some degree, Gazprom behaves more like an instrument of state than a profit seeking firm.

At present, Gazprom faces significant obstacles to becoming an efficient company. If the main driving forces for Gazprom’s decision making continue to be predominantly political rather than business oriented, it will be hard for Gazprom to reach its ambitious goals.

Gazprom: Gas Giant Under Strain

Russia’s domestic gas market is in the midst of a significant reshuffling following key governmental decisions. Growing independent upstream production and wholesale supplies show a progressive liberalisation, so that the state-controlled Gazprom accounted for 73% of Russia’s total production in 2013, a steady decrease from 83% in 2007.

An IEA in-depth review of Russia’s energy policies this year found that, overall, the market broadening was effectively working, marking a major step towards a more competitive market. While important progress has been made, major elements of the regulated system prevail.

arket in flux: What’s next for Russian gas?

[Cog]

[

The 5% figure is an example of rumour mill propagation. Once Moody's and some other biased organizations issued this "forecast" and the MSM started spreading it, then it became established "fact".

That's right, that's how it's done these days. Doesn't matter what idiot (e.g. Eliot Higgins/Bellingcat) makes an absurd claim, the important thing is that the claim is made and can then be parroted as fact without further examination.

Newspapers have morphed into misinformation services since the actual news is available long before they can report it in today's world.

Putin should put you on the payroll as his information minister.

[AgentR11]

We like to think foreign investment would "help" Russia; but all it does is help liberate Russia of its remaining assets and leave nothing but candy bars and bmw's in its wake. Certainly good for us I suppose. But that will doom them to a fate worse than post-new world Spain. They must do most of the "investing" indigenously. Fortunately for them, they have the food and energy required to give them the decade or two they need; but they absolutely MUST cut the cord on oil funded luxuries and nicknacks. MUST.

How about some good old fashioned competition? Strip the monopolies of their status and force them to survive in a competitive environment.

I don't disagree at all, but you have to be careful. One of the cons we use in the West is to get a state to "sell off" its state monopolies for next to nothing, and then the new owners pay little to no taxes going forward, but retains ownership of a large percentage of a countries means of production.

I think Russia could sell off these state monopolies, but the resulting private companies should be taxed on a percent of government revenue allocated by a property valuation set before the fire sale, and then subject to additional assessment and revaluation without appeal by local and oblast taxing authorities. Failure to pay results in instant auction, with the proceeds used to pay the prior taxes, and the top management being criminally liable with say prison terms 1-5 yrs for failure to pay.

My *real* preference, and what I think would serve them the best, is that the state monopolies should be starved of orders. Kill'em from the revenue side. Let the management try to string out their existence by selling off plant and equipment domestically to multiple, competitive parties. Give say a 25% bid preference to privately run companies that are 51% ownership of Russians domiciled in Russia. Require PERSONAL guarantees and bonding from management bidding from state companies. hehehe. Have to be careful with WTO rules of course, but hey, we've been wanting to sanction them more, so maybe they'll realize WTO screws them bad, and they should withdraw completely. I really don't think WTO serves the interests of a country that exports both calories crops and energy; but Russians at the time wanted the "status" of an industrial producer and importer of food and energy, even if it didn't match their economy.

Russia has an opportunity moment here, they will neither go hungry, nor freeze, nor become unable to crash their Lada's around in the snow, even with the toughest path. NATO is not going to invade Russia, and we won't even do anything more than grumble loudly about losing the Crimea. If they want Freedom from the West, they can take it; but they have to mean it, and they have to mean it now.

Or they can return, and forevermore be the obedient servants of Germany's European Union, in exchange for chocolate kibble of course. (Im a big fan of white chocolate kibble with little bits of almond or vanilla bean; but I am content to be an obedient widget.)

[Cog]

New York City and Los Angeles combined have a larger GDP than the entire country of Russia. Why we pay these alcoholic, third world Huesos any attention at all is beyond me. I guess because of those nukes and predilection for making boasts about crap they are too stupid to accomplish.

[Strummer]

Why we pay these alcoholic, third world Huesos any attention at all is beyond me. I guess because of those nukes and predilection for making boasts about crap they are too stupid to accomplish.

I guess it could be for the utterly neglible reason that the european economy can not function without russian energy, and that half of Europe would freeze in the next winter without russian gas. Just a thought

[Withnail]

Why we pay these alcoholic, third world Huesos any attention at all is beyond me. I guess because of those nukes and predilection for making boasts about crap they are too stupid to accomplish.

I guess it could be for the utterly neglible reason that the european economy can not function without russian energy, and that half of Europe would freeze in the next winter without russian gas. Just a thought

Kind of shows what America thinks of its 'allies' doesn't it. The 'we' doesn't include us.

[Cog]

If you don't want to be beholden to Russia for your energy needs, perhaps you should find other sources. Just a thought

[Withnail]

If you don't want to be beholden to Russia for your energy needs, perhaps you should find other sources. Just a thought

or you could take the educationally subnormal criminals in uniform you call soldiers home and stop bothering us.

[Cog]

Your government is free to leave NATO whenever they so choose. Write a letter to your MP and make it so.

[AgentR11]

New York City and Los Angeles combined have a larger GDP than the entire country of Russia. Why we pay these alcoholic, third world Huesos any attention at all is beyond me. I guess because of those nukes and predilection for making boasts about crap they are too stupid to accomplish.

This may be part of your problem when thinking about Russia, which you obviously care about to some extent because you post a lot in Russian topic threads.

This "making boasts" thing. Russians are obnoxious about it. The trick is figuring out what stuff they really intend to do, and what they have ZERO interest in doing.

The aircraft carrier thing pops up a lot; because, well, Top Gun, and Americans love our Carriers,and they're awesome and make for great movies. And it helps that we actually have a valid use for aircraft carriers; we get our money's worth when we build and deploy them. Russia on the other hand, has zero USE for an aircraft carrier. They keep the Kutzenov around for sentimental reasons; but no Russian government is going to build an aircraft carrier. Its all cost, and ZERO benefit for them. The sole mission of a Russian aircraft carrier would be to hold dance parties on the deck in honor of Admiral X, Y, or Z.

On the other hand; they talk very little about Corvettes, Frigates, attack subs... and they are building them as fast as they absolutely can; real boats, in the water, with real missions, modern hardware, modern radar signatures, relevant to the security of the Russian Federation. But laying the keel of such a boat rates a tiny note on page 3.

So what the Russians TALK about, is not what Russians DO.

So stop thinking of the Russian babble as "boasts". Its has nothing to do with what they can or can not do, or are smart or not smart enough to do. The boasting provides an outlet to hotheads who will never get their prizes, and will be lucky to be appropriated enough money to buy pencils to draw their prizes on paper.

Instead, ignore the babble; and watch for pouring of cement, laying of asphalt, welding of steel; that will tell you what Russia is interested in, and what they are not interested in. Russia is interested in roads, highways, and bridges; they are interested in small, fast, missile boats, they like tanks alot, they are interested in intercept fighters and strategic bombers; they are very interested in their nuclear deterrent, they are interested in rail freight to the far East; and they are interested in continuing their export of hydrocarbons to a broader base of customers, even if they make less money overall doing that.

And put plainly, they are not interested in power projection, as much as a few idgits boast, or don't boast; there is zero interest in such expenses.

In the end, our only real concern with Russia is to keep them from launching their nuclear weapons. As long as they don't do that, we can ignore them. They don't have the muscle, even if they were inclined to do so, to take and hold any territory currently under NATO control. I still believe, that NATO correspondingly has no interest in taking ANY Russian territory, not even Kaliningrad nor Crimea.

There is the rotting cesspool of Ukraine remaining on the table, which was a rotting cesspool before it got on anyone's radar, and it will remain a rotting cesspool for decades to come; having secured Crimea and gotten most of the useful folks from E. Ukraine to move to Russia, Russia is losing interest in what some hotheads had termed a "novorussia project". They've done the math, the bridge is cheaper than Novorussia and works better. The energy bridge will be online in a few more months; recent weather has altered the water pic in favor of Crimea. I keep a modest skepticism about the road and rail bridge at Kerch, but its the energy piece that is important, and that part is trivial, and mostly done. I do hope the Kerch bridge is successfully completed, I love bridges, and that one would be magnificent; cooler in its own way than the Vladivostok bridge.

Basically, game's over. And we're stuck with Kiev. (woooohhhhooooo).

[dissident]

Since the thread has been derailed into the topic of who goes around boasting. Well, it's quite thick and rich listening to bitching about Russian boasting. If anything, it is the USA that thinks it is the center of universe in terms of human intelligence. The US media spreads North Korean style brain dead propaganda about Russian and formerly Soviet technology, claiming it is vastly inferior. Take the Antares rocket crash last year. You can see all the little MSM sap lemmings going on and on about how it was the RD-180 engine that "failed" and assumed the results of the investigation before it even reached a conclusion. Oh no, the Ukrainian built (by Yuzhmash) first stage had not a thing to do with the crash, in their rodent-like minds. I guess Orbital Sciences doesn't know what it is doing proceeding to order the new RD-181 engines from Russia after the accident. MSM saps know better.

During the 1970s and 1980s I recall the claim made routinely that Soviet ICBMs were not as accurate as American ones. Of course no argument or evidence was provided. The proof was by assertion. For someone who likes to use their brain this failed the propaganda smell test. The USSR had solid state ring laser gyroscopes in 1970 made from glass-ceramic. These gyroscopes were credited with the US "advantage" over Soviet ICBMs. Clearly not enough thought was put into the propaganda. But then much thought does not have to be put into MSM drivel when the audience laps it up with nary a doubt.

[StarvingLion]

Russia is already a budding superpower and you simply don't know it. They have one of the keys to the Export Engine of the 21st Century: **PROVEN** 3rd gen fission Nukes. The other two are room temp superconductor and a next generation battery.

Fact is, the only legitimate Generation 3 nuclear fission reactor design is by Russia, which is aiming to have a dominant position in the world's nuclear sector. Pretty much the only one left preventing that is China.

[AgentR11]

Crimea is having a terrible summer!!!

https://www.youtube.com/HWYlvxjuvBA

Sunburned Russians everywhere! Stop the invasion! Stop it now!! Fat white (or now red...) people in swim suits!!! ARGGGGG!!!

Sorry, couldn't resist. Russia is doomed after all.