pip wrote:I work for an unnamed US refiner, and several months ago the regional vice-president came in and presented a slide show to the entire plant work force. The presentation he showed us was about the next 5-10 year projection for supply/demand etc that had been done by the company’s planning dept. The presentation had evidently been made to all the company’s plant managers earlier.
For those calling conspiracy or dishonesty, you’re giving the oil industry way too much credit. The presentation predicted gasoline demand continuing upward into the future in a consistent manner. Ethanol production to continue to increase into the future taking a larger and larger slice of the gasoline demand. The VP expressed concern about our future competition with the ethanol industry implying margins would likely decrease.
As strange as it seems, I would not assume the refining industry knows any more about peak oil than the average joe. I certainly haven’t met anyone here who would even recognize the term.
Thanks pip.
Government does get some of the blame for misleading when saying large increases are planned. I suppose if there is some new breakthrough in ethanol efficiency those goals may actually be realized, but as a practical matter, they don't look like they will now. So refinery capacity will be needed, mostly to process lower quality oil.
Even if they did move up ethanol production, what happens in the year of drought or famine when ethanol can't be produced or other crops are needed? Obviously they will expect refineries to pick up the slack. I hope someone is planning for the worst - or else many people will starve and/or not get to work one of these years.