Question ?

by **Scorpio** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 12:31:51

Hello People,

Has anyone seen or produced a model which indictates a by country future export capability modelled against internal consumption by that country.

I am just interested to know the point at which producers will stop supplying world markets due to depletion.

This could be a turning point in geopolitical tensions, thats why i am interested in this model.

Thanks

Scorpio

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 14:17:40

Let's do a few that we know are close to the peak, and that we know and love:

Indonesia:

Code: Select all: year prod cons Exports 1965 486 123 363 1966 474 119 355 1967 510 115 395 1968 599 122 477 1969 642 132 510 1970 854 139 715 1971 892 144 748 1972 1081 163 918 1973 1338 190 1148 1974 1375 205 1170 1975 1306 232 1074 1976 1504 246 1258 1977 1685 296 1389 1978 1635 338 1297 1979 1590 367 1223 1980 1577 410 1167 1981 1602 449 1153 1982 1337 463 874 1983 1419 449 970 1984 1505 477 1028 1985 1342 459 883 1986 1429 465 964 1987 1420 500 920 1988 1373 519 854 1989 1481 551 930 1990 1539 621 918 1991 1669 669 1000 1992 1579 729 850 1993 1588 782 806 1994 1589 774 815 1995 1578 820 758 1996 1580 888 692 1997 1557 963 594 1998 1520 914 606 1999 1408 980 428 2000 1456 1049 407 2001 1389 1088 301 2002 1288 1115 173 2003 1179 1131 48 2004 1144 1145 -1 2005 1109 1159 -50 2006 1076 1173 -97 2007 1044 1188 -144 2008 1012 1203 -190 2009 982 1218 -236 2010 953 1233 -280 2011 924 1248 -324 2012 896 1264 -367 2013 869 1279 -410 2014 843 1295 -452 2015 818 1311 -493 2016 793 1328 -534 2017 770 1344 -575 2018 747 1361 -614 2019 724 1378 -654 2020 702 1395 -693 2021 681 1413 -731 2022 661 1430 -769 2023 641 1448 -807 2024 622 1466 -844 2025 603 1484 -881 2026 585 1503 -918 2027 568 1521 -954 2028 551 1540 -990 2029 534 1559 -1025

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 14:19:25

Mexico:

Code: Select all: year production consumption export 1965 362 302 60 1966 370 315 55 1967 411 337 74 1968 439 368 71 1969 461 390 71 1970 487 419 68 1971 486 442 44 1972 506 490 16 1973 525 525 0 1974 653 601 52 1975 806 676 130 1976 894 746 148 1977 1085 771 314 1978 1327 864 463 1979 1607 932 675 1980 2129 1034 1095 1981 2553 1125 1428 1982 3001 1152 1849 1983 2930 1118 1812 1984 2942 1195 1747 1985 2912 1239 1673 1986 2758 1231 1527 1987 2879 1292 1587 1988 2877 1295 1582 1989 2897 1392 1505 1990 2977 1456 1521 1991 3126 1522 1604 1992 3120 1543 1577 1993 3132 1638 1494 1994 3142 1772 1370 1995 3065 1650 1415 1996 3277 1697 1580 1997 3410 1768 1642 1998 3499 1844 1655 1999 3343 1842 1501 2000 3450 1911 1539 2001 3560 1897 1663 2002 3585 1835 1750 2003 3789 1864 1925 2004 3789 1911 1878 2005 3789 1959 1830 2006 3675 2009 1666 2007 3565 2060 1505 2008 3458 2112 1346 2009 3354 2166 1189 2010 3254 2220 1033 2011 3156 2277 879 2012 3061 2334 727 2013 2970 2393 576 2014 2881 2454 426 2015 2794 2516 278 2016 2710 2580 130 2017 2629 2645 -16 2018 2550 2712 -162 2019 2474 2781 -307 2020 2399 2851 -452 2021 2327 2924 -596 2022 2258 2998 -740 2023 2190 3074 -884 2024 2124 3151 -1027 2025 2060 3231 -1171 2026 1999 3313 -1314 2027 1939 3397 -1458 2028 1881 3483 -1602 2029 1824 3571 -1747

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 14:22:13

venezuela

Year Prod Cons Export
1965 3503 187 3316
1966 3402 190 3212
1967 3576 192 3384
1968 3639 202 3437
1969 3631 203 3428
1970 3754 211 3543
1971 3615 221 3394
1972 3301 239 3062
1973 3455 265 3190
1974 3060 262 2798
1975 2422 254 2168
1976 2371 279 2092
1977 2314 350 1964
1978 2227 385 1842
1979 2425 402 2023
1980 2228 415 1813
1981 2163 408 1755
1982 1954 408 1546
1983 1852 399 1453
1984 1853 370 1483
1985 1744 370 1374
1986 1886 388 1498
1987 1910 391 1519
1988 1998 407 1591
1989 2012 388 1624
1990 2244 397 1847
1991 2501 405 2096
1992 2499 431 2068
1993 2592 430 2162
1994 2752 436 2316
1995 2959 446 2513
1996 3137 426 2711
1997 3321 452 2869
1998 3510 475 3035
1999 3248 474 2774
2000 3321 496 2825
2001 3233 545 2688
2002 3218 594 2624
2003 2987 526 2461
2004 2897 538 2359
2005 2810 551 2260
2006 2726 563 2163
2007 2644 577 2068
2008 2565 590 1975
2009 2488 604 1884
2010 2413 618 1795
2011 2341 633 1708
2012 2271 647 1623
2013 2203 663 1540
2014 2137 678 1459
2015 2073 694 1379
2016 2010 710 1300
2017 1950 727 1223
2018 1892 744 1148
2019 1835 761 1073
2020 1780 779 1001
2021 1726 797 929
2022 1675 816 858
2023 1624 835 789
2024 1576 855 721
2025 1528 875 653
2026 1482 895 587
2027 1438 916 522
2028 1395 938 457
2029 1353 960 393
2030 1312 982 330
2031 1273 1005 268
2032 1235 1029 206
2033 1198 1053 145
2034 1162 1078 84
2035 1127 1103 24
2036 1093 1129 -35

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 14:23:58

Iran

Code: Select all: Year Prod Cons Export 1965 1908 201 1707 1966 2132 222 1910 1967 2603 246 2357 1968 2840 271 2569 1969 3376 300 3076 1970 3848 331 3517 1971 4572 366 4207 1972 5059 403 4656 1973 5907 473 5435 1974 6060 503 5557 1975 5387 571 4816 1976 5918 599 5319 1977 5714 638 5076 1978 5302 646 4656 1979 3218 692 2526 1980 1479 625 854 1981 1321 570 751 1982 2397 619 1777 1983 2454 748 1706 1984 2043 812 1231 1985 2205 893 1312 1986 2054 863 1191 1987 2342 891 1452 1988 2349 774 1576 1989 2894 882 2013 1990 3270 951 2320 1991 3500 995 2504 1992 3523 1017 2506 1993 3712 1044 2668 1994 3730 1099 2631 1995 3744 1204 2539 1996 3759 1248 2511 1997 3776 1221 2556 1998 3855 1160 2694 1999 3603 1192 2411 2000 3818 1158 2660 2001 3734 1127 2606 2002 3420 1115 2305 2003 3852 1132 2720 2004 3852 1154 2698 2005 3852 1176 2677 2006 3852 1198 2654 2007 3852 1220 2632 2008 3737 1243 2493 2009 3624 1267 2358 2010 3516 1291 2225 2011 3410 1315 2095 2012 3308 1340 1968 2013 3209 1365 1844 2014 3112 1391 1722 2015 3019 1417 1602 2016 2929 1444 1485 2017 2841 1471 1370 2018 2755 1499 1257 2019 2673 1527 1146 2020 2593 1556 1037 2021 2515 1585 930 2022 2439 1615 824 2023 2366 1645 721 2024 2295 1676 619 2025 2226 1708 518 2026 2160 1740 419 2027 2095 1773 322 2028 2032 1807 225 2029 1971 1841 130 2030 1912 1875 37 2031 1854 1911 -56 2032 1799 1947 -148 2033 1745 1983 -239

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 14:26:20

Argentina: This one is not very big, but it is kind of fun:

Code: Select all: year prod cons exports 1965 276 443 -167 1966 293 459 -166 1967 319 471 -153 1968 348 481 -133 1969 362 505 -143 1970 399 456 -56 1971 432 489 -58 1972 444 482 -38 1973 434 485 -51 1974 423 482 -59 1975 406 459 -53 1976 408 477 -69 1977 442 498 -57 1978 466 489 -23 1979 487 528 -40 1980 506 476 29 1981 519 453 66 1982 517 439 78 1983 520 445 75 1984 509 442 67 1985 491 402 88 1986 465 432 34 1987 459 457 2 1988 481 456 26 1989 492 417 76 1990 517 389 129 1991 526 411 114 1992 587 417 170 1993 630 418 212 1994 695 416 280 1995 758 415 343 1996 823 432 391 1997 877 451 426 1998 890 467 422 1999 847 445 403 2000 819 431 388 2001 829 404 425 2002 808 364 444 2003 793 371 423 2004 820 378 442 2005 820 385 435 2006 820 393 427 2007 820 401 419 2008 820 408 412 2009 795 416 379 2010 772 425 347 2011 748 433 316 2012 726 441 285 2013 704 450 254 2014 683 459 224 2015 663 468 195 2016 643 477 166 2017 623 486 137 2018 605 496 109 2019 587 505 81 2020 569 515 54 2021 552 525 26 2022 535 536 0 2023 519 546 -27 2024 504 557 -53 2025 489 568 -79 2026 474 579 -105 2027 460 590 -131 2028 446 602 -156 2029 433 614 -181 2030 420 626 -206 2031 407 638 -231 2032 395 650 -256 2033 383 663 -280 2034 371 676 -305 2035 360 689 -329 2036 349 703 -353

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 14:40:18

If someone friendly graphs these out for us, it would be wonderful. I am still too thrifty to have a website.

All historical data came from the BP review.

I averaged each nation's rate of consumption increase over the last 15 years, and projected the same rate going forward.

I also assumed 3% depletion in each of the cases, which might or might not be conservative.

Also, there is some question as to whether Iran is in depletion, so I assumed that they hang in there for a few years at the current rate then start to decline at 3% (to make the curve look nicer).

Most of the pain will occur between now and 2015, and the most painful place will be Mexico. These five countries will account for about 4.5 mbo per day off of the world market by then.

Another big wild card is Saudi. According to the BP review, their internal consumption last year grew at 5.6%, which is a doubling in 12 years. Since there is currently controversy about whether or not they are in depletion, and whether or not they can increase production, suffice it to say that if this growth rate continues, this will cause about 600,000 bpd per year to be taken out of the system.

Most of the rest of these countries' consumption is small compared to their production, so not too exciting.

Russia is another wild card, of course, and there is still some question as to how close they are to depletion.

It is disconcerting to think of Iran being a net importer of oil in 25 years. Maybe that's why they want to start a nuclear program.

by **smiley** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 16:46:44

Good overview Pup. I think you should add China. Sizable producer and should be peaking within a few years.

And talking about Russia, take a look at this. Looks scary doesn't it?
http://omrpublic.iea.org/supply/ru_to_ts.pdf

by **Permanently_Baffled** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 16:58:48

Just a quick question, will these middle east producers domestic consumption continue to increase when the world price skyrockets? As I understand it most are not wealthy?

PB

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 21:09:24

will these middle east producers domestic consumption continue to increase when the world price skyrockets

This is an interesting question.

There is a nice presentation by simmons to the effect that some of this internal consumption will be due to population increases, and I guess in Iran this is probably the case, since the rate of increase in energy use is pretty close to population growth.

In the case of Saudi, on the other hand, internal oil usage is growing a lot faster than the population, which makes me think that they need to use it as part of their production process, i.e. pumping all of that water, or some other industrialization effort. Perhaps desalination plants or something.

In either case, I would imagine that even if the price skyrockets, it is likely that per-capita oil usage in these nations will be kept constant, so as to keep the masses happy. This being the case, we can probably expect growth rates comparable to population growth no matter how expensive the stuff gets. Over and above this base rate, probably some of the excess consumption will be wrung out of the system somehow.

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 21:27:02

China:

The BP review thinks 23.67 gb of reserves as of 2003, and approximately 30 gb of cumulative production, therefore they are past mid-point. I assumed a constant domestic production for the next five years, to be a good sport, before 3% depletion sets in.

The current energy growth rate is 11.5% per year, I assumed the more modest 9.5% per year per the news this morning, so that energy use and economic growth can occur at the same rate.

Note that by 2016, China will need to import the equivalent of the US daily consumption, if growth continues at this insane rate.

Code: Select all: Year prod cons net 1965 227 217 10 1966 292 279 13 1967 278 275 3 1968 320 300 19 1969 436 404 32 1970 615 559 56 1971 790 759 31 1972 913 871 42 1973 1075 1067 9 1974 1301 1226 74 1975 1545 1353 193 1976 1743 1546 197 1977 1878 1638 240 1978 2087 1825 262 1979 2129 1833 296 1980 2119 1766 353 1981 2030 1706 324 1982 2048 1658 390 1983 2127 1703 425 1984 2292 1733 559 1985 2505 1809 695 1986 2621 2010 611 1987 2690 2111 579 1988 2741 2209 532 1989 2760 2259 501 1990 2774 2253 521 1991 2828 2411 417 1992 2841 2662 179 1993 2888 2913 -25 1994 2930 3145 -216 1995 2989 3390 -401 1996 3170 3672 -502 1997 3211 3935 -723 1998 3212 4047 -834 1999 3213 4416 -1203 2000 3252 4985 -1732 2001 3306 5030 -1724 2002 3346 5379 -2032 2003 3396 5982 -2586 2004 3396 6640 -3244 2005 3396 7371 -3975 2006 3396 8181 -4786 2007 3396 9081 -5686 2008 3396 10080 -6685 2009 3294 11189 -7895 2010 3195 12420 -9225 2011 3099 13786 -10687 2012 3006 15302 -12296 2013 2916 16986 -14070 2014 2828 18854 -16026 2015 2744 20928 -18185 2016 2661 23230 -20569 2017 2581 25786 -23204 2018 2504 28622 -26118 2019 2429 31770 -29341 2020 2356 35265 -32909 2021 2285 39144 -36859 2022 2217 43450 -41233 2023 2150 48230 -46079 2024 2086 53535 -51449 2025 2023 59424 -57401 2026 1963 65960 -63998 2027 1904 73216 -71312 2028 1847 81270 -79423 2029 1791 90210 -88418 2030 1737 100133 -98395 2031 1685 111147 -109462 2032 1635 123373 -121739 2033 1586 136945 -135359 2034 1538 152008 -150470 2035 1492 168729 -167237

by **Tanada** » Sat 30 Apr 2005, 16:25:09

2002 3346 5379 -2032
2003 3396 5982 -2586
2004 3396 6640 -3244
2005 3396 7371 -3975
2006 3396 8181 -4786
2007 3396 9081 -5686
2008 3396 10080 -6685
2009 3294 11189 -7895
2010 3195 12420 -9225
2011 3099 13786 -10687
2012 3006 15302 -12296
2013 2916 16986 -14070
2014 2828 18854 -16026

Could you redo the China table with more conservative/pessemistic values for comparison? I would be interested in growth rates until resource constraints set in, which I assume will happen by 2014 unless something surprising happens.

by **pea-jay** » Sat 30 Apr 2005, 19:52:04

Mexican data looks a little optimistic if you ask me. Cantarell peaked early and by PEMEX's own estimates, will have a brutal decline curve.

My natural gas exectutive contact expects that they will cease to export as soon as 2010, just FOUR years post peak.

by **Tanada** » Sun 01 May 2005, 08:24:05

pea-jay wrote:Mexican data looks a little optimistic if you ask me. Cantarell peaked early and by PEMEX's own estimates, will have a brutal decline curve.

My natural gas exectutive contact expects that they will cease to export as soon as 2010, just FOUR years post peak.

Here is the rub, every single projection assumes world supply will come from a magical 'somewhere else' to make up any local shortfalls. Come Peak Oil and that will no longer be possible, so how realistic can any of these projections be? Short answer, they are all guesswork after PO, or more acurately after Peak Production. We have likely passed the peak in resource availibillity, but we have not quite hit the peak of production. Once we do, all bets are off.

by **Quicksilver** » Thu 24 Nov 2005, 05:37:39

Iran's oil consumption is growing at 7% per year according to the IEA. If that continues they won't be exporting oil at all within 10 years.

by **pup55** » Thu 24 Nov 2005, 21:42:42

[img][img]http://img474.imageshack.us/img474/9692/irannetexports1fn.th.jpg[/img][/IMG]

Here is a little graph.

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