[Sys1]

Seems that peak oil is a theory which has sense only if we consider conventionnal oil only.

Now that conventionnal oil start to decrease, we gonna move to heavy oil in sands from Canada.
Alberta reserves in Canada are absolutly huge. They have enough to power the world with petrol for the next 50 years. The question is what is the maximum extraction rate imaginable in this region in regard to meet demand.

[chris-h]

E.R.O.I

[linlithgowoil]

yes, there is a lot of unconventional oil, but from all that i have read, it will only be able to supply a few million barrels of oil a day at best - and that is in 10 years or more. it creates a ton of pollution, requires TONS of natural gas and oil to do, and many people even speculate that the energy returned on energy invested is about equal - i.e. even although you could suck a barrel of oil out of the tar sands, you've just used the equivalent energy by using natural gas etc. to extract it.

therefore, there isnt really any point - you are as well using the natural gas for something else.

remember, its not the end of oil, its the end of CHEAP oil. i'm sure the US will still be consuming enromous quantities of oil in the future, but it will be extraordinarily expensive - meaning that your average guy in the street who has little money to spare at the end of the month will not be able to afford to use it. Result? a few elites who can use as much oil as they want - an dmillions of downtrodden who cant. Revolution? possibly - thats why the new terrorism laws are being passed worldwide.

Someone starting a protest about fuel could easily be categorised as a 'terrorist' by the government and thrown in jail for eternity with no need for trial. this is happening in the UK NOW.

[FatherOfTwo]

There are two ways to get at the tar sands. Mine it (only 10% is recoverable this way) and use SAGD. (steam assisted gravity drainage)
The SAGD process is currently NG intensive, but other technologies are coming online, namely MSAR, where the bitumen itself is used to generate the steam for the SAGD process.

[Sys1]

Ok i get it.
Then we just got to prepare for the third and last world war.

[EnviroEngr]

E.R.O.I

I'd go further and say: EROEI.

[frankthetank]

Sys1...

Cheap oil gone=expensive oil left...

expect to pay more(this is already happening IMO)...and remember how much oil is used throughout your life...almost everything a person buys uses some sort of fossil fuel...

research, read, and be prepared...

[Wallygator]

Hey Sys1, screw ya.

Peter

Hey PSTARR your response to Sys1 was interesting(meeooww!!) What Sys1 was thinking is what we all have thought of before. If wars are created now(pre-PO) when oil is still plentiful then what about in the near future(post-PO)?

I'm in a situation like yours. Sure I don't have any debt but I live in a little squalid bachelor basement apartment. I can't afford cable service anymore. I have to watch every single red cent that I spend. I'm not married and have no kids. I broke up with my girlfriend 4 months ago. I try to live on just a $1000.00 a month. I'm not sure if I'm blessed or really unlucky.

Anyway here I sit thinking about PO(damn you PeakOil!!!). I'm going for a walk now.

[Sys1]

pstarr : yes, i admit changing my mind in every post cause heart fighting against logic. That's simply that.
Logic is peak oil and heart is "It's not possible, governments are prepared and all those forums are full of paranoid people, bacause we have reached a secure world with no more conflict or poverty in our rich countries..."

[RdSnt]

Hey Sys1, screw ya.

Peter

Hey PSTARR your response to Sys1 was interesting(meeooww!!) What Sys1 was thinking is what we all have thought of before. If wars are created now(pre-PO) when oil is still plentiful then what about in the near future(post-PO)?

I'm in a situation like yours. Sure I don't have any debt but I live in a little squalid bachelor basement apartment. I can't afford cable service anymore. I have to watch every single red cent that I spend. I'm not married and have no kids. I broke up with my girlfriend 4 months ago. I try to live on just a $1000.00 a month. I'm not sure if I'm blessed or really unlucky.

Anyway here I sit thinking about PO(damn you PeakOil!!!). I'm going for a walk now.

You think you feel bad. Now just imagine 200+ million Americans suddenly in exactly the same situation you are in, none of them by their own choosing.

[futuretrip]

I believe that most people will not want to conserve, therefore they must be informed (about dissapearing cheap oil) and that they will go without if they think that the government (or even industry) will save them. The solution is to erect about 500,000 utility scale wind turbines at a cost of about 1 penny per Kwh (across the USA) during a 10 to 15 year period. That wILL give our kids enough energy to live like we do! Hopefully, some appreciation will be gained by said offspring about investing time wisely and not watching sitcomes and endless chattering 'bout fashion and other non important things. Before decommisioning, the wind turbines will have generated a far excess of energy, to be stored as hydrogen or battery, or compressed air, os pumped hydro, or supercapacitor, or supercunducting energy storage, or giant flywheels, or something better than what I know about!

We had better quit bitching about the same old worn out self fulfilling doomsday prophecies - and at least start spreading awareness about the POSITIVE future that is only possible if we think positive (and learn) and ACTIVATE it!
This is futuretrip signing off now because I too am too pure to afford another computer - so I'm at library (in CA). If the oil doesnt go up enough to start a full fledged economic depression, I will make it - So will you Just gotta work a little harder
Thanks

[Dan1195]

Those reports that "we have 40-50 years of oil left" are based on R/P ratios, which have very little to do with oil production rates:

R/P is Current Reserves/Current Production. In order for the resulting number to be relavent the following would have to apply:

1) Production would have to remain constant, that is 0% growth. Common sense and data tells you than assuming supply is there, demand will continue to increase.

2) you can pump as much oil as you want from a field until its completely dry. Even heard the President of ExxonMobil admit the Hubbert theory is correct (tried to say we are nowhere near peak, but regardless).

Those public numbers are simply there to obscure the real issue.

[Michael_Allison]

Look to the markets.

Light, sweet crude has risen 400% in a little less than four years. If we had plenty of oil then the price would be stable.

Simple enough, right? There's no reason to make it complicated.

[deconstructionist]

as dan1195 touched upon, it's not about HAVING the oil, but having more and more as demand continues to increase.

we've reached the midpoint where about half of what was in the ground has been taken out. according to hubbert's peak after any oil field is half depleted, extraction rates decrease. we can pump some water or detergents or some other such thing into the well to push the oil up faster, but basically, the world is pretty much at max production right now, something like 84million barrels per day? we're also consuming about 84million barrels per day... capitalist economy requires growth for survival, growth requires more oil, demand goes up, supply cannot meet demand, economy cannot grow and cannot stabilize, as a capitalist system that remains stagnant creates massive economic losses as capital is invested on futures and intangeables while no real capital is being produced to offset these expendatures... we are not running out of oil, we've reached a point where our continuing increased demand for oil will not be supported by our host. we may figure out ways to extract oil faster, but that will only make things worse ten or fifteen years down the road. we can pour all sorts of energy into extracting crude from tar sands and tread water for a while... our resources will always be finite yet our demands on those resources are not linked to the limits of those resources... the only way to fix the problem is to stop being so frickin capitalistic.

[hawkeye0]

Speaking of Tar Sands I saw this info today:
Companies are proposing a $3 billion pipeline project that would include 3 pipelines to either Chicago or St. Louis. Future plans include using this as a jump off point to connect to Oklahoma, Texas and Louisiana. Current production from Alberta is 1 million barells/day and expected to increase to 3 million barrels/day over the next 15 years.

The problem I see is that world consumption is currently 84 million barrels/day. By the time we arrive at the point where the Alberta fields are producing 3m per day, what will the consumption/supply situation be?
If my math is right and it were possible to sustain 2% yearly growth in consumption for 15 years that would put yearly world consumption at approximately 113m per day. If the U.S. is using 20m per day we will be at 27 m per day. So that would be just a bit above 1 percent of our total consumption. Not to even include the aforementioned problems with energy intensive nature of extraction and environmental impacts.