[Jack]

See the problem here jack? Every thing we think as good (pop growth, econ growth, efficiency) is actually bad.

Yes - it does make a mess of our present values, doesn't it? And therein lies the problem with creating new solutions. We're constrained by all manner of values, beliefs, and attitudes that we - to a considerable extent - are not even aware of.

We as a culture tend to spend a lot on accommodating the weak, the handicapped, and the impaired. But can we do this in a time of privation and die-off? The change in mindset will, I think, be wrenching. And those who come out the other end will be changed - perhaps in ways we cannot imagine.

One view is that we'll wind up with a more communal, sustainable culture. Maybe. But I wonder if that culture won't have a darker, bloodier side. It has been my frequent observation that people are quite ruthless predators when it comes to survival. I suspect we'll see that tendency come forth.

[maverickdoc]

So, what options remain?

1) Innovation - which may or may not magically solve everything.

2) Massive dieoff

Since the chance of an invention solving the problem before things get tight seems small, it appears that we're looking at a dieoff of 4 billion people or so, starting in the next decade or so.

Or is that not the case?

See the problem here jack? Every thing we think as good (pop growth, econ growth, efficiency) is actually bad.

Yes - it does make a mess of our present values, doesn't it? And therein lies the problem with creating new solutions. We're constrained by all manner of values, beliefs, and attitudes that we - to a considerable extent - are not even aware of.

We as a culture tend to spend a lot on accommodating the weak, the handicapped, and the impaired. But can we do this in a time of privation and die-off? The change in mindset will, I think, be wrenching. And those who come out the other end will be changed - perhaps in ways we cannot imagine.

One view is that we'll wind up with a more communal, sustainable culture. Maybe. But I wonder if that culture won't have a darker, bloodier side. It has been my frequent observation that people are quite ruthless predators when it comes to survival. I suspect we'll see that tendency come forth.

Look at that jack you just answer the $64,000 or (48484Euro) Question.

The problem with Conservation, or war for Resource, or technology or even “American innovationâ€

[MonteQuest]

America is the best hope for a solution to peak oil. The world would do well to provide America with all it needs. Don't believe me? Just look at history. The "Green Revolution" was an American invention, which was exported all over the world. America believes in people, as many people as possible.

We just need a President that can inspire and lead.

Yes, the green revolution was a spectacular success - it made it possible for population to increase from 2 billion to 6.5 billion. Then again...the green revolution led us to the problems we face today. Tough one to call, eh?

See the problem here jack? Every thing we think of as good (pop growth, econ growth, efficiency) is actually bad. From a PO, prospective of course.


Where is Monte I would like to know what his take is on this

Since we know that the government knows about peak oil, as witnessed in the Congressional record, then they know that conservation and increased efficiency are not saleable nor workable, fusion or zero point is as likely as winning the lottery, and that war is the only option left. I am working on a new thread on this. We need to keep in mind that to a very large extent this crisis has come about because of things that were hopefully and innocently done with good intentions in mind, albeit, ignorant and short-sighted. The Green Revolution was a prime example.

[holmes]

America is the best hope for a solution to peak oil. The world would do well to provide America with all it needs. Don't believe me? Just look at history. The "Green Revolution" was an American invention, which was exported all over the world. America believes in people, as many people as possible.

We just need a President that can inspire and lead.

Yes, the green revolution was a spectacular success - it made it possible for population to increase from 2 billion to 6.5 billion. Then again...the green revolution led us to the problems we face today. Tough one to call, eh?

so true Jack. The green revlution brought us genetically modified foods and exccelleration of soil loss. Fucking profit driven. Nothing else.

[Ludi]

The green revlution brought us genetically modified foods and exccelleration of soil loss.

It also systematically destroyed regionally appropriate and indigenous agricultural methods in the US and around the world.

Read Wendell Berry's The Unsettling of America for more on the Green Revolution's impact on American society.

[Ebyss]

So we are giving up... no more ideas

I'd be interested in hearing yours You have a better grasp on this than most people (myself included).

I happen to believe in the "back to rural and local communties who help each other out" scenario after the initial great panic. I think it can work for my country, I can't speak for any other countries, especially not the U.S. I just don't think society will work the same way as it does now, the economy as we know it will be gone. I don't see any possible way to sustain it as it is when TSHTF, at the same time, I don't see that simply because the economy goes, the whole world stops and everybody dies. I think there will be some die-off, but I think people will learn to cope very quickly. Adapt or die. It's a question of survival in the end, the economy is irrelevant.

PO or not, I'll be moving out to the countryside to be as self sufficient as possible. I've been planning it for years, even though I just found out about PO a month ago. (I know, I'm late... ) I'll just have to cope when people come knocking at my door, it may be the end of me, but I'd rather give it a go than sit in suburbia and die of starvation.

[MonteQuest]

I don't see that simply because the economy goes, the whole world stops and everybody dies. I think there will be some die-off, but I think people will learn to cope very quickly. Adapt or die. It's a question of survival in the end, the economy is irrelevant.

Irrelevant? Since the economy provides those niches of employment that allow people to be divorced from consuming their own production, it would appear patently obvious that the economy is revelvant.

People in a post-exuberant world found themselves surrounded by alien conditions. They underwent a great deal of future shock, years before they got that name for it. By mechanization of agriculture in the nineteenth and early twentieth century, the Western world greatly reduced the number of farm workers needed to provide sustenance for themselves and for urban dwellers. Displaced from agricultural occupations, ax-farmers naturally migrated into cities in search of alternative employment, employment for which their farming experience or upbringing had not prepared them.

http://www.energybulletin.net/4632.html

Now we will see this in reverse.

[Ebyss]

Sorry, I didn't quite articulate myself well enough. What I was trying to say was that in terms of basic survival of a human being, economy is irrelevant. Economy is a very recent thing for humanity, we survived (thrived even) as a species for thousands, if not millions of years. My point really was that all of humanity needn't die off, as many will be able to revert to this way of life, as such an economy in it's present state will be unnecessary. However, in order for these humans to thrive, billions will have to die. Hardly ideal. I'm not saying that I have the answer, not at all, I'm going to cope as best I can.

I was kind of steering away from "allowing" people to be "divorced" from producing their own food... rather the opposite, I was pushing directly for that, with perhaps a barter and skills trade (or economy ? ). Very different from the current economy which many seem to want to replace or emulate post Peak. My take is that that is likely not possible, and it's probably for the best... I think people are all pushing for their own ideal of what post peak life will be like, myself included.

[Jack]

[quote="maverickdoc"]The problem with Conservation, or war for Resource, or technology or even “American innovationâ€

[maverickdoc]

Sorry, I didn't quite articulate myself well enough. What I was trying to say was that in terms of basic survival of a human being, economy is irrelevant. Economy is a very recent thing for humanity, we survived (thrived even) as a species for thousands, if not millions of years. My point really was that all of humanity needn't die off, as many will be able to revert to this way of life, as such an economy in it's present state will be unnecessary. However, in order for these humans to thrive, billions will have to die. Hardly ideal. I'm not saying that I have the answer, not at all, I'm going to cope as best I can.

I was kind of steering away from "allowing" people to be "divorced" from producing their own food... rather the opposite, I was pushing directly for that, with perhaps a barter and skills trade (or economy ? ). Very different from the current economy which many seem to want to replace or emulate post Peak. My take is that that is likely not possible, and it's probably for the best... I think people are all pushing for their own ideal of what post peak life will be like, myself included.

I agree with you 100%. But problem is most people do not, people want to hold on to their way of life, a way they have gotten accustomed to. And the longer we wait the worse it will be. The "answer" is we have to give up on “civilization" as we know it, and revert back to a more sustainable way of life. The problem is society as a whole has to do it, not just a few people here and there.

Think of it this way: you just bought stock in one company for $10,000, the next day the value of the stock falls 25%, your broker tell you now is the perfect time to buy more, not bail out and take your losses. You put in another $10,000 the stock goes down again, the broker tells you next week the company will come out with great news so you have to buy more, encouraged you put it $25,000. Next week the stock tanks 50%, the broker again reassure you every thing is ok. Well by this point all most of your savings are in, so you might as well put the rest in. then the company collapses.


You should have pulled out when you just lost $2500, but you did not, now you lost every thing.


Peak oil IMHO is very much like that, we are pretending everything is ok when it is not. Instead of using what ever resources we have left now and trying to salvage some kind of a decent future we are not. We cling on to hope that we can conserve, or war, or technology will save us, all the while making the problem worse (econ and pop growth).

Debt based growth is the biggest pyramid scheme of all time, and soon the game is going to come to an abrupt end.

[Ebyss]

The "answer" is we have to give up on “civilization" as we know it, and revert back to a more sustainable way of life. The problem is society as a whole has to do it, not just a few people here and there.

Agreed. This is the scary part I think, this is where the apocalyptic scenario comes into play. People are going to be faced with that choice; "Adapt or Die". I suspect I'll be quite surprised at the amount of people who refuse to adapt. It all depends, as we've said so many times already, on how fast it all falls apart. A transition period would see the majority of people through I think, a sudden crash will cause the panic and chaos that we all fear (IMO).