[tmazanec1]

IIRC, 17 will be opened in 2005, 11 in 2006, 3 in 2007 and 0 in 2008. How many do we need just to "stay in the same place"? Will we fall behind as early as next year?

[leal]

As you can see in the latest ASPO Newsletter, the peak for regular oil is next year

[aahala]

Thanks for the softball question. The number of new fields that must be found to maintain current production is some number 1 to n -- it depends on the size of the fields.

Actually the number may be zero, or even negative. The facts as we know them now, is that the amount of oil left is a fairly large multiple of present annual production. Fewer fields might actually produce more than the present, over some extended time period.

It seems unlikely that production could be increased for more than a short time period, but such an event does not violate logic, and is therefore within the realm of possibility. The future is bound by the present but it is not bound by our view of the present.

[Taskforce_Unity]

peak capacity of those 11 fields coming online this year is 3 million barrels per day

decline is 1.14 million barrels per day at the moment and increasing
extra demand is 1.81 million barrels per day this year

that totals up to 2.95 million barrels per day

If the markets stay stable with the small fields we might just make it this year.

As for 2006

2 million barrels coming online at maximum.........

so that will be the year that the prices will rise huge at least.

[0mar]

IIRC, 17 will be opened in 2005, 11 in 2006, 3 in 2007 and 0 in 2008. How many do we need just to "stay in the same place"? Will we fall behind as early as next year?

This question is moot. We need an infinite number of giant fields being opened. Without an infinite number, peak oil occurs. Without an infinite number, our economic model collapses.

[tmazanec1]

I know that, Omar. I am what ? is in "Number of giant fields open per year will fall below necessary number in 200?"