[dmtu]

It's worth a look: http://ogj.pennnet.com/forum/display_me ... iteIDs=OGJ

[Pops]

Thanks dmtu.

Took me a minute to figure out the chronology of the posts.

But it sounds like the same story re: reserves – even the “experts” can’t agree on the numbers - whether they are reliable or not or even if they matter. No wonder average Joes like me are confused.

One thing surprised me, Laherrere said: “The problem is that I am not anymore worry about oil supply as the oil demand will be flat (a bumpy plateau) for the next decade”
Wow! I’ve read all over that overall demand in the coming decade will rise up to 2% per year, and 4-6% in Asia! That doesn’t sound flat and so far higher prices haven't seemed to affect demand.

He went on to say: “as oil company wants to increase their profit they will produce as hell, using the technology to produce faster but globally less (as for the Atlantic cod, fishing more when the fish was disappearing). So as people do not care for the future of their children, it could be oversupply mainly in deepwater and oil price may fall”

Drollas seemed to agree and repeated what I have read from others, short-term dip in prices, then rising around ’12. I’ve read that there are several large offshore fields going into production in ’07 & ’08, then none soon to come (5-6 year lead time). Those type fields go to maximum production fast to recoup the big costs then decline rapidly. Could be real low prices right before the big surprise.

After this years rising cost of fuel, increased production and could well bring the glut OPEC is worried about. Look for these boards to “DieOff” and more people to buy Hummers.

For those who believe there will be supply problems around the corner this will be a good thing – the economy will have a better chance of not going down the drain (cross your fingers), the dollar might rise (it could happen) and the things people like me are trying to acquire will be more affordable.

The thing not talked about much is the possibility of the Nat gas cliff in N America. Here is the paper he referred to: http://www.mnforsustain.org/energy_us_ng_supply_v_demand_laherrere_2001_part2.htm

Lots of other info on that site as well.

Pops