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Days from economic collpase?????

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Days from economic collpase?????

Unread postby stu » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 09:14:33

Found this report on FTW. The story is from AP originally and if you read Rupperts statement it doesn't make for happy reading.

http://tinyurl.com/6h8la
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Unread postby Cynus » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 10:16:00

FTW recommends investing in precious metals. How, for us financially clueless, would one go about doing this?
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Unread postby PhilBiker » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 10:16:00

The story is from AP originally and if you read Rupperts statement it doesn't make for happy reading.
Correction: "if you believe Rupperts statement it doesn't make for happy reading."
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Unread postby stu » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 10:29:38

True.

Have to hand it to him though. He was correct with two previous economic warnings.

You don't see that on Bloomberg or CNN money.
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Unread postby JoeW » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 10:33:10

After reading the article, I have adjusted my 401k portfolio such that 50% of it is in the Vanguard Precious Metals Fund.

Not really. My 401K has very limited options as to where you can place your funds. There are small cap funds, large cap funds, bond funds, international funds, etc. but there are no precious metals funds. Oh well.
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Unread postby stu » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 10:47:13

stu wrote:True.

Have to hand it to him though. He was correct with two previous economic warnings.

You don't see that on Bloomberg or CNN money.


And Ruppert is using Associated Press as the source for his piece.
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Unread postby Aaron » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 10:48:39

If your money is tied to a 401k investment fund, your options are likely limited by the terms of the 401k.

Many 401k programs offer "choices" to it's policy holders about what percent of their investment goes where. But these choices will be a defined list of fund accounts, and not the complete market.

Because of this, your choices are to choose among the funds defined by your 401k, or to cash out the 401 with a monumental penalty.

Some funds will offer precious commodities futures as an option, but never simply buying these commodities. Futures may be safer in some respects than other investments, but keep in mind that these futures only have value, if the fund you invest with can actually cover the profits from the commodity.

Any serious bankruptcy or other financial shelter pursued by your fund could destroy any equity you have accumulated.

Read the thread on economic collapse in South America.

For those with their retirement hopes pinned on your 401k, this is only a guaranteed investment if the economy is strong and growing. A serious economic downturn means that these monies will evaporate in lost value and inflation.

What's worse, is that there is nothing you can do about it.

You're locked into your 401k by 50% or greater penalties for early withdrawal. So unless you fear an even greater loss from economic conditions, you have no choice but to remain in your corporate sponsored financial prison, and hope for the best.

Everyone should realize that these funds (401k & similar), are a financial vehicle designed to allow the financial power elite access to your money now, (which they lend to still more people at a profit), betting that the growing economy will allow them to return your investment many years later with interest.

If the economy tanks, then your fund goes bankrupt, your money is gone.

If you think this is impossible, ask the retired couple in Argentina (or any other from the 50% of the population that's below poverty level), what they think.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I've been following the sell off myself recently, and am somewhat chilled by the volume of traffic.

Company executives frequently sell off company stock to take profits for whatever reason. But the recent avalanche of these sales should ping our radar. If this trend continues, it deserves major media coverage IMO.

<hint hint all you editors and reporters out there (I get to see the server log :) )>

Hopefully these recent sales trends will table off, and amount to a massive coincidence.

But senior executives selling significant portions of their own companies portfolio, while their traders push the stock for investors, is an absolute warning flag of impending economic problems.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

Hazel Henderson
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Unread postby Theo » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 12:22:06

At the end of the piece on insider selling they mention a home building company, NVR Inc., and how it's CEO is selling off big time. Well, I just saw this piece today:

Jobless claims, Housing starts plummet

Looks like the insider selling isn't just coincidence.
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Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 12:32:30

Apologies for ignorance what is a 401K? Is this some sort of compulsory pension contribution from your wages or something?
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Unread postby Ayoob_Reloaded » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 12:46:00

The stock market doesn't seem to be tanking. I wouldn't worry that much. If you have a 401k, and you're really really worried about an economic collapse in the next couple of days, do this.

Take out a loan against your 401. Open a brokerage account in another country with the money. Buy puts against DIA and SPY and QQQ to match your portfolio. The puts you're looking for are LEAPS, which are two-year puts. I don't know if you can get them denominated in Euros, but see if you can. Stop your regular contribution to the 401k and direct your cash to paying off the loan.

Also, you can buy gold and silver coins in an IRA. http://www.certifiedmint.com/ira_investments.htm
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Unread postby Kingcoal » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 13:06:05

Permanently_Baffled wrote:Apologies for ignorance what is a 401K? Is this some sort of compulsory pension contribution from your wages or something?


The basics of a 401(k) plan

It's not compulsory, but very popular due to the tax advantages.
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Unread postby pup55 » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 13:20:32

Hi. PB, allow me to comment....

A 401-K is a private account that a lot of us have in the US instead of a company-sponsored pension. It started a few years ago when US corporations found out that offering pension plans for their retirees was getting too expensive. Usually, in a 401-K, some quantity of money is set aside in your name periodically in a special account, to which you have limited or no access until you retire, but you do have flexibility as to what the account is invested in (stock mutual funds, bond funds, etc.) , so you have some options to make this grow a little faster if you are willing to take some risk. The benefit is that if somebody changes companies, they can take their 401-K with them. The benefit for the company is that they wave bye-bye to you when you are done and they are not responsible for your pension or anything else. Also, the benefit for the company is sometimes, the 401-K is allowed to include stock of the company you are working for, so it does not really cost the company any cash at all to offer this benefit, which they like even better, but if you work for a company like Enron that goes into the toilet, part of your 401-K may evaporate, which is exactly what happened to a lot of these former Enron employees. As a result, you have to keep an eye on this and make sure you do not get too overloaded in one investment or another, and adjust this account periodically if you do not like what you see. But, that is your own responsibility and no one is holding your hand on it.

Also, I think that there are some restrictions on your company's ability to raid this account for their own purposes. During the 80's it was pretty common practice for a company that had done a good job of providing a pension for their employees to get "raided" for their pension funds, which were on the books as a company asset. These takeover guys (such as James Goldsmith) would buy long-established companies with big pension funds, re-calculate the money needed to take care of the retirees to the minimum extent possible allowed by law, and pocket the rest for their next deal. They really had to put a stop to all of that.

Also, most of the big companies nowadays encourage workers to save some of their pay voluntarily over and above their 401-K. This can be put into a similar account, and often, the company will match this with an additional contribution.

The benefits of both of these are that they are tax-deferred, namely, money stashed into one of these accounts does not need to be claimed as income in the year it is stashed, and it reduces the tax burden slightly. Taxes are eventually paid when the money is withdrawn, which is good, since most people have a lower tax rate by the time they retire.

This system is mostly done in the big companies. Many of the small companies and self-empolyed do not have this option. It's a recruiting tool for new hirees, so it is becoming sort of a standard benefit. Also, to encourage you to stick around, it takes some number of years for you to become "vested" in the plan, if you leave earlier, you only get a percentage.

This is completely outside the government Social Security system, which, per numerous posts etc. is totally government run, and nearly broke at the moment. If you work someplace that does not offer a 401-K, no individual savigns program, etc. this is your fallback plan, for as long as it will last. The system is partially funded by a payroll tax, by which a deduction is taken from your pay, and paid out to the recipients. Right now, there is a lot more being paid out of the system than is going in, hence the problem.
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Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 13:59:53

Thanks Pup and Kingcoal.

I have a final salary pension scheme. I pay in $250 a month and the company pays $300 a month. But like your 401K, I cannot get hold of the money until retirement(at least 20 years away). So to be quite honest I do not think I will ever see this money as it will be evaporated in the stock market meltdown!

If by some miracle it paid out, then I would receive 2/3 's of my salary during retirement until the day I kick the bucket....

Oh well,

PB
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