[NTBKtrader]

MUSCAT: Oman, which has battled to halt a drop in oil production, is estimating a lower daily output of 750,000 barrels next year, the national economy minister said in remarks published Sunday.

Estimated production for next year is 4.1 percent down on the figure for the first nine months of 2004 and 8.4 percent lower than output for all of last year, said The Times of Oman.

Oman exported 197.4 million barrels of crude in the first nine months of this year, 5.5 percent lower than for 2003.

Daily average production in 2003 was 819,500 barrels, down 8.7 percent from 898,000 the year before.

State-run Petroleum Development Oman, an exploration and production company, last week attributed the drop to a steep decline in its daily output from 840,000 barrels per day in 2000 to 660,000 bpd by the end of last month.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp ... e_id=10707

[NTBKtrader]

more news links
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/ar ... 2003214002
http://www.timesofoman.com/newsdetails. ... n=business

[pup55]

Oman had maximum production in 2001. They're depleting a little faster than the global average. If they follow the same path as Trinidad, their 2006 production will be about 70% of peak or 672,700.

Code: Select all

   actual   index   Avg   Trinidad   UK
Peak    961,000    100   100   100   100
1    898,000    93   94   93   92
2    819,500    85   90   92   86
3    774,428    81   87   82   85
4    750,000    78   85   77   78
5         83   70   

By the way, I predict that UK will report 2,082 thousand bbl/day (72% of peak) for 2005. Remember where you heard it first.

[pup55]

that table came out terrible. Here is another attempt.

Code: Select all

      actual   index   Avg   Trinidad   UK
Peak    961,000    100   100   100   100
1       898,000    93   94   93     92
2       819,500    85   90   92     86
3       774,428    81   87   82     85
4       750,000    78   85   77     78
5           --       --   83   70   --

[slick50]

Here's data from www.economagic.com UK is declining at an alarming rate.

2004 01 2041.000
2004 02 1898.000
2004 03 2028.000
2004 04 1966.000
2004 05 1800.000
2004 06 1923.000
2004 07 1818.000
2004 08 1756.000

[pup55]

woah, I am going to be wrong. I figured 72% of peak but it's going to be in the 60's.

Interesting.

[clv101]

Here's data from www.economagic.com UK is declining at an alarming rate.

2004 01 2041.000
2004 02 1898.000
2004 03 2028.000
2004 04 1966.000
2004 05 1800.000
2004 06 1923.000
2004 07 1818.000
2004 08 1756.000

Those numbers are bouncing around quite a bit... sure the last number in the list is the lowest, but the next one could be back up to 1900+.

[pup55]

thanks, slick50, for putting us onto that data source.

The even more interesting data is from the USA, which according to that source, is down almost 25% from last year and is now pumping at only 48% of peak, compared to 65% in 2003.