The major media focus with myopic intensity on conventional crude reserves, ignoring stunning reserves of oil located in tar sands and oil shale. At best, this is difficult to comprehend.
But by far the largest potential reservoir of future oil is held in oil shale.
JD wrote:http://www.lesjones.com/posts/000863.shtml
This guy seemed to originally believe in peak oil being imminent, and now doubts that this is the case. Again, pointing out that reserve figures are growing all the time...
Maybe the deep-earth gas theory is correct after all. We've known for decades that existing Saudi fields are filling back up from somewhere, and the Russians have written about a thousand papers over the past fifity years arguing that oil doesn't come from primordial life but is merely trapped hydrogen and carbon like you'd find on any planetary body. I mean, you'd expect the first and fourth most abundant elements in the solar system to show up somehow, and the thermodynamically stable form of carbon and hydrogen a hundred or so kilometers down is in fact petroleum. All this may be true, or maybe not, but it's certainly interesting.
0mar wrote:Unless theres a giant 500-600 billion barrel of oil just laying around, I doubt we will find anymore significant findings.
johnmarkos wrote:One contrast I find particularly convincing is that the folks who claim that oil is about to peak (Deffeyes, ASPO) provide detailed figures, analysis, and point out places where their numbers could be wrong. Those who deny peak oil tend to be rather fuzzy about where the extra oil is coming from.
trespam wrote:Anyone else read this particular post: [link].
[snip...]
Oil prices are increasing. Even a little demand destruction and a little production increase, combined with depletion, may prevent a catastrophic problem in this decade and perhaps well into the next.
This does not negate dollar problems and other associated issues, but those who believe peak or a crash is imminent may be wrong.
Canuck wrote:"Okay, for the sake of argument, oil production peaks at 95 million barrels a day in 2015. That is only ten years away. What are the implications of peak oil on the economy? What should we be doing today to mitigate the impact? Can the economy continue to grow with an energy supply in decline? How?"
MonteQuest wrote:These arguments and figures have been refuted at length here and other places. For example:The major media focus with myopic intensity on conventional crude reserves, ignoring stunning reserves of oil located in tar sands and oil shale. At best, this is difficult to comprehend.
Not too hard to comprehend if one does the EROEI work. That and the ability to meet or even match coventional oil production is woefully short, not to mention the enviromental costs and the huge requirements of water and existing energy required to extract it. It is not that we are running out of energy resources, it is that we are reaching our limit in the ability to meet demand no matter what we do or try to develop.
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