0mar wrote:I'd say within 5-8 years after the peak will real consequential effects of depleted oil hit us. This is because by then the number fudging game will be over and the reality will hit us that oil is not plentiful anymore.
AdamB wrote:0mar wrote:I'd say within 5-8 years after the peak will real consequential effects of depleted oil hit us. This is because by then the number fudging game will be over and the reality will hit us that oil is not plentiful anymore.
I would point out that Omar has a pretty standard peaker view, circa 2004. Back in the heyday it was all about getting to a good rapture trigger/apocalypse event. I wonder what happened to Omar, as one of the great disappearing herd of peakers who took a look around one afternoon and realized they needed a different good excuse to buy gold, guns or MREs, and bury tubes of supplies in national forests to hide from the mutant zombie bikers? This would at least put Omar in the class of folks who realize they had been had, joining guys like Savinar in fleeing the stench of their bad prognostications.
dolanbaker wrote:AdamB wrote:0mar wrote:I'd say within 5-8 years after the peak will real consequential effects of depleted oil hit us. This is because by then the number fudging game will be over and the reality will hit us that oil is not plentiful anymore.
I would point out that Omar has a pretty standard peaker view, circa 2004. Back in the heyday it was all about getting to a good rapture trigger/apocalypse event. I wonder what happened to Omar, as one of the great disappearing herd of peakers who took a look around one afternoon and realized they needed a different good excuse to buy gold, guns or MREs, and bury tubes of supplies in national forests to hide from the mutant zombie bikers? This would at least put Omar in the class of folks who realize they had been had, joining guys like Savinar in fleeing the stench of their bad prognostications.
OK going along with the trend of dragging up old posts and ridiculing the comments, it appears that Omar had a very moderate and realistic viewpoint based on the fact that he is simply stating the fact that after "the peak", oil production will be lower and it will take several years for the affects of a restricted supply to be really noticeable by the general public.
dolanbaker wrote:He makes no mention of a rapture, apocalypse, mutant zombie bikers or any other catastrophic events, you added that!
dolanbaker wrote:"Leave oil before oil leaves us", has been the message of sense coming from many "peakers", including myself.
dolanbaker wrote:
It appears that this message has been heeded and the transition from oil is now in full swing with more and more countries mandating EV's only after certain dates in the not too distant future.
dolanbaker wrote:Plus of course, manufacturers now doing some serious development of these replacement vehicles along with advances in battery technology.
Peak oil will be a silent fart of an event
AdamB wrote:0mar wrote:I'd say within 5-8 years after the peak will real consequential effects of depleted oil hit us. This is because by then the number fudging game will be over and the reality will hit us that oil is not plentiful anymore.
I would point out that Omar has a pretty standard peaker view, circa 2004. Back in the heyday it was all about getting to a good rapture trigger/apocalypse event.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:AdamB wrote:0mar wrote:I'd say within 5-8 years after the peak will real consequential effects of depleted oil hit us. This is because by then the number fudging game will be over and the reality will hit us that oil is not plentiful anymore.
I would point out that Omar has a pretty standard peaker view, circa 2004. Back in the heyday it was all about getting to a good rapture trigger/apocalypse event.
First, in defense of Omar and those of his ilk in the mid 00's, it's hard to predict the future.
outcast_searcher wrote:Second, during the spring and summer of 2008 (and really 2005 - mid 2008 as a trend), it was looking like Omar's standard peaker view was pretty reasonable.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:The objection I have to the short term doomer peaker crowd is that NOW, several years into a huge fracking oil supply glut that seems to have no end in sight (and while the oil price might swing a lot in the future, the concept of "running out" in the intermediate term is sheer lunacy), they refuse to accept any data outside their "doom blinder's" view and adjust their outlook, based on objective reality.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:BTW, I still believe in the concept of peak oil in terms of the big finite resource issue.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:I just don't think it MATTERS to humans any more, given the vast new supplies, the impact of EV's in coming decades, and all the substitutes that will be available in coming decades, including massive amounts of solar, wind, battery, etc. green energy.
ROCKMAN wrote:When? How about today? There are a countless number of folks on the planet living substandard lives due to a lack of affordable oil/NG. There may be an abundance for those who can afford $45/bbl oil but hundreds of millions (if not billions) who can't.
....
Affluent folks (like many Americans) need to remember: it isn't always just about them. LOL.
KingM wrote:I'm someone who has been around since about 2005. Back then it seems like it was about 1/3 hard doomers, 1/3 cornucopians, and 1/3 cautiously optimistic, but aware that there was an issue. I was in this latter category, although to a doomer, anyone who doesn't see cannibalism in the future looks like a cornucopian.
I would still say we're not over the hump. I'd be a lot happier if we were making a faster, more aggressive push to de-carbonize, and not only for PO concerns.
onlooker wrote:Well the marginal plays seem to be going from boon to bust
http://calgaryherald.com/business/energ ... ion-leases
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests