[pilferage]

AKA- food for the trolls...

I was just thinking that it's a logical fallacy to state that peak oil won't occur based on one key idea. That our supply of oil is finite...
we have two branches we can take, the supply of oil will peak at some point in time because demand will outstrip supply, or....
the supply of oil will peak because at some point in time demand for it will terminally drop.

Now since (based on previous experience), supply is increasing with new discoveries dropping, at some point in the (most likely near) future we will hit peak oil. This will result in oil prices rising, along with 'stagflation'. After that, who knows what will happen, imho it'll up to humanity to decide whether it wants to fight or cooperate (unfortunately for us, we have a violent past, so a violent future doesn't seem that far off).

Of course would could pull net positive energy fusion, or some new super-mystery fuel as good or better than oil out of our asses, but until we do (or possibly if we do it too late), we are screwed.

[Sencha]

Finally, someone as pessimistic as I am

I hate that you're probably right, but you're probably right. (I say probably because, I could not get out of bed without some sliver of self-denial about Peak Oil happening.)

Still going to have a hard time convincing the trolls though, but fight the good fight. Well, its more depressing than good but...

[jato]

I am right up there in the pessimist crowd. The most realistic scenario 'IMHO is found at:

http://www.dieoff.org

I also think Matt Savinar has it right.

Jay Hanson at dieoff takes into account the human factor. That is to say, we could possibly have a soft-landing, but leave it to us humans to screw it up. The more I think about it; we will be lucky if we wind up with one billion after the crash is over.

However, I am taking it rather well. We all have to die of something I guess.

Have a nice day!

[jato]

Interview with Jay Hanson of dieoff.org, June 2003, a must read for hard crashers.

http://www.wordwright.com.au/paul/Hanso ... erview.htm

[Grimnir]

I was just thinking that it's a logical fallacy to state that peak oil won't occur based on one key idea. That our supply of oil is finite...
we have two branches we can take, the supply of oil will peak at some point in time because demand will outstrip supply, or....
the supply of oil will peak because at some point in time demand for it will terminally drop.

That's true, of course, but it's not very useful. Humanity will someday go extinct no matter what, so by the same logic we will eventually experience peak air, peak iron, peak football, and peak video games. The only important questions are how soon, and how bad?

[jato]

That's true, of course, but it's not very useful. Humanity will someday go extinct no matter what, so by the same logic we will eventually experience peak air, peak iron, peak football, and peak video games.

I think it is very useful. I am not sure why you brought up the other nonsense peaks. Unless you think peak oil is a long ways off and does not matter to this generation!?!

[Grimnir]

That's true, of course, but it's not very useful. Humanity will someday go extinct no matter what, so by the same logic we will eventually experience peak air, peak iron, peak football, and peak video games.

I think it is very useful. I am not sure why you brought up the other nonsense peaks. Unless you think peak oil is a long ways off and does not matter to this generation!?!

The argument was that peak oil is bound to happen someday because either we'll have used half of it up or we'll no longer need it, either because we have alternatives or because we're all dead or cavemen. Of course one of those things will happen sooner or later, just like it will happen for any other commodity we use (no matter how silly ). The important questions are whether demand will outstrip supply when oil peaks, and whether it will peak soon. If the answer to either is no, the odds of peak oil causing a catastrophe are pretty small.

[pilferage]

That's true, of course, but it's not very useful. Humanity will someday go extinct no matter what, so by the same logic we will eventually experience peak air, peak iron, peak football, and peak video games. The only important questions are how soon, and how bad?

It's usefull because it can be used to shove a sock in the mouth of most trolls, obviously it's not useful when it comes down the the nitty gritty of who, what, when, where, why, and how....
but that's not why I posted it.
Also, peak air, peak iron, peak football, and peak video games aren't valid conceptualizations because they haven't ben formulated. For instance, what is "air"? Oxygen, the rest of our atmosphere, is it a local reference to the lower atomsphere? Etc...
But since oil is the limiting factor in our society's growth, we've decided to define and study this unstoppable event. Peak iron, air, etc... not only don't cap the limits of our growth (yet), but they also aren't rigorously defined.

[RonBonnell]

Jay speaks of genetic fitness being the end all of end all's. But there are those who sacrifice their genetic fitness. Not only were there the "normal people" who shot down naked women and children but there were also those who sacrificed their lives to save others. Schindler’s list, Dietrich Bonhoffer, Anne Frank’s family, etc.

I was struck by how well Jay describes the human condition. He hit the nail on the head. It is in our genetic makeup to have joy from more things. I know I do. And he is right. It is the obtaining of them rather than the having of them that brings the thrill. But that thrill is short lived and we have to go on to another. Its sort of like the fun is in the acceleration not the speed once we get there.

The biblical message is of happiness that doesn't come from these temporary things. Right or wrong, these might have been just our collective conscious trying to find a way out of our dilemma (which would be pretty astute for people thousands of years ago). Or maybe it really is the wisdom of God trying to bring us to happiness instead of meaningless ruin.

James 4: 1 - 4

1 What is the source of the wars and the fights among you? Don't they come from the cravings that are at war within you? 2 You desire and do not have. You murder and covet and cannot obtain. You fight and war. You do not have because you do not ask. 3 You ask and don't receive because you ask wrongly, so that you may spend it on your desires for pleasure.

i.e. we ask for the wrong things, more stuff, rather than God's desire for character, love, peace, justice etc.

Matthew 6:19-24

19 "Don't collect for yourselves treasures on earth, where moth and rust destroy and where thieves break in and steal. 20 But collect for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys, and where thieves don't break in and steal. 21 For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also. 22 "The eye is the lamp of the body. If your eye is generous, your whole body will be full of light. 23 But if your eye is stingy, your whole body will be full of darkness. So if the light within you is darkness--how deep is that darkness! 24 "No one can be a slave of two masters, since either he will hate one and love the other, or be devoted to one and despise the other. You cannot be slaves of God and of money.

John 4: 13-15

13 Jesus said, "Everyone who drinks from this water will get thirsty again. 14 But whoever drinks from the water that I will give him will never get thirsty again--ever! In fact, the water I will give him will become a well of water springing up within him for eternal life."

John 10:10

I have come that you might have life and have it more abundantly.

Ps 16:11 -

You reveal the path of life to me;
in Your presence is abundant joy;
in Your right hand are eternal pleasures.


I know Jay would say these are the illogical hopes some hold onto. And working for eternal treasures is just another way of trying to ensure our genetic fitness to continue not only in this life but also in an eternal life. However, I think the message here is not so much to store up the treasures for eternal gain in the future but to focus on the things that are important, that can't be destroyed, and you will have a better life now, instead of being slaves to your desire. Its saying if your heart is on your earthly treasures, you will never be satisfied.

So there is some kick against this genetic condition.

Of course, the Bible doesn't have a very happy earthly ending either, (again pretty astute thinking by those people thousands of years ago). So I have no utopian view that it’s all going to turn around. It’s the right message for survival, and true happiness, but we are far too easily suckered into the alternative of wanting more.

[0mar]

Give me unlimited power and I can make the world a better place