[andrisLV]

I have been watching and comparing the yearly crude oil production figures. In brief, (although they vary slightly depending on the source) as best as I can get, the yearly oil supply data has been:
2001: 76 million bpd
2002: 77 mmbpd
2003:79.5 mmbpd
2004: 82.4 mmbpd
2005: 83.6 mmbpd

As can been seen, it APPEARS that supply has been rising, so apparently there is NO problem for the world. But has anyone seen the graph on "The Oil Drum" site......as follows: (it blew me away!!!)

"WHY PEAK OIL IS PROBABLY ABOUT NOW"
World production stopped increasing in late 2004

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/1/3402/63420

This graph takes away the yearly 'smoothing' out effect of averaging the production figures out over a year.
It shows that since 2005, world production has maxed out at about 84-85mmbpd.
Considering China and India(and the rest) are experiencing mega-booms and the world population/energy is supposed to be growing at 1-3% per year, it is clear that SOMETHING doesn't add up?
Seems to me that this is the proof the world needs.

Shouldn't this be on the front page of ever newspaper in the world!!
Is this really the beginning of the end?

...Andris

[energyaddict]

Seems to me that this is the proof the world needs.

As much as I would like to second that statement, I can´t do so. That might be seen as proof from us PO aware minority. What all the others need as proof is to have a stranded car and no gas around to refuel - lining up in front of the gas station for hours and days to wait till the next shipment of fuel to arrive at the pump (even if it´s $15 gas).

Prior to that nobody will listen.

[Doly]

Yep. It looks like it.

Funnily enough, I was the one that started the thread: "Did oil peak on 2004?" in these forums, in early 2005. My deduction was based exclusively on the signals prices were sending. Since the moment you have high volatility, there is a strong suspicion that you are at peak.

Shouldn't this be on the front page of ever newspaper in the world!!

"Should" according to who? If you are a president of a country, you definitely believe it shouldn't. If you want to run for the hills, you may also want to keep the secret for yourself.

If you are about building a community effort to deal with the consequences, maybe it should be.

Is this really the beginning of the end?

Welcome to the real world!
You gotta be strong,
you gotta be strong...

[Zardoz]

...Is this really the beginning of the end?

Yes, it is:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic22248.html

Welcome to the forum. Try to ignore the crazies and goofballs as you sort through the threads and posts for information. There's much to learn here. Some very astute people post quite often.

[EnergyHog]

That's the graph I have set as my desktop on my computer, just to remind my greedy ass that someday I might have to do work to stay alive. I don't mean cubicle jockey work, real freakin' labor where your hands get dirty and muscles get sore. You know, like the work those poor bastards around the world have been doing in exchange for USD for the past 30 years.

Beginning of the end? Yeah, the end of lazing around having everything imported into your country in exchange for worthless IOU's.

[Fergus]

Well Exxon says its primed to up production by 25% BY 2010. How can it be if Exxon still has room to up production.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic22321.html

[paoniapbud]

Look at the bigger picture. Just because Exxon is upping production doesn't mean the rest of the world will be able to. The US oil majors are small peanuts compared to Saudi Aramco, etc.

[ClubOfRomeII]

Shouldn't this be on the front page of ever newspaper in the world!!
Is this really the beginning of the end?

...Andris

WE'RE DOOMED!!!!!

You would think the end of the world would arrive with more drama, wouldn't you?

I haven't used a single drop of gasoline during the last 3 days....I wonder what will happen when its rationed and I only get 10 gallons every other day? Guess I'll have to...uummm...change nothing?

[dinopello]

I wonder what will happen when its rationed and I only get 10 gallons every other day? Guess I'll have to...uummm...change nothing?

5 gallons a day seems like an awful lot of gas. Is that rationing? I'd trade mine for some good heirloom tomatos

[nth]

I would love gas rationing.

I don't believe the numbers point to a peak. It bugs me that people are able to predict peak in 2005 when 2006 is only half way. It takes a few months before more precise data comes in. The data we get for 2006 are just rough estimates. Anyways, to prove peak oil production will require more than one year for most experts.

I think there is a consensus that we are at maximum output, but they believe that output can be increased. Consensus that Saudi Arabia needs to drill more and that they no longer have much spare capacity besides 1-2mbpd of heavy crude.

[paoniapbud]

Not just peak oil - it also seems we are hitting Peak Earth. This planet can't support all of us much longer. I've read forums here about peak uranium, copper, platinum, etc. as well. I feel sorry for Old Mother Earth - she has a bad case of cancer.

She will long out-survive us though.

[ClubOfRomeII]

Not just peak oil - it also seems we are hitting Peak Earth. This planet can't support all of us much longer. I've read forums here about peak uranium, copper, platinum, etc. as well. I feel sorry for Old Mother Earth - she has a bad case of cancer.

She will long out-survive us though.

I am currently worried about something more fundamental...the sun is through more than half its expected lifespan....Peak solar will be a catastrophic and serious problem that has already occurred and we're obviously on the downward slope. What happens when we can't grow tomato's?

Seriously though, what is more important , Peak oil or peak uranium or peak iron ore? The way modern civilization uses EVERYTHING you would think we are as likely to be clobbered by one Peak as another.

[evilmonkeyspanker]

She will long out-survive us though.

Eventually the earth is just going to get so sick of us that she will do something to get rid of the entire human population, sort of like having a mosquito on you and your just watching it work until of course you get bored and swat it.

[mrobert]

We are still 5 billion years away, until the Sun dies.

[Pops]

Is this really the beginning of the end?
...Andris

What exactly is the "End"?

BC (Before Cheap-oil) was what then?

Did we learn anything in between?

Is all this nothing but talk to avoid actually doing something?


BTW, welcome andy.