[NTBKtrader]

Total worldwide liquids resources discovered through end-2003 amounted to 2,285 billion barrels with cumulative production of 1,020 billion barrels. The remaining resources of 1,265 billion barrels imply global liquids depletion of 44.6% at end-2003.

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/sit ... ewsLang=en

We've used 44.6 % of known oil reserves. Using simple math
1,265 (reserves)-1,020 (used) = 245 (barrels left until midpoint)

We use around 30 billion barrels of oil a year. Take note that I'm roughly figuring that new production might offset increased demand so

245/30 = 8.16 years left until mid point or around the year 2013

I'm also not taking into account that the Middle East will quickly make up a lot of that slack so geo-political factors may hasten things.

Thoughts? Too simplistic?

[pinou]

Or too optimistic?

See the Nemesis Report in ASPO's newsletter 15, item #35
http://www.asponews.org/ASPO.newsletter.015.php

pinou

[duff_beer_dragon]

the Middle East will quickly make up a lot of that slack

If I were you I'd go with that.

[pup55]

I kind of like it. Simple is good.

The weak link, of course, is the estimate of "oil discoveries". No one can really tell how much of this stuff is underground until they try to pump it and it either comes out or doesn't.

If you read the APSO newsletter article mentioned above, there are a lot of comments like "there is a consensus" or "experts state", etc. etc. so they're not 100% certain either, since egos are involved, particularly among "experts".

[NTBKtrader]

I kind of like it. Simple is good.

The weak link, of course, is the estimate of "oil discoveries". No one can really tell how much of this stuff is underground until they try to pump it and it either comes out or doesn't.

If you read the APSO newsletter article mentioned above, there are a lot of comments like "there is a consensus" or "experts state", etc. etc. so they're not 100% certain either, since egos are involved, particularly among "experts".

I definitely agree, I've read from several sources that the Middle East reserves may be overstated because of their quota system. time will tell...