Average field distribution from 100 projects announced to be taken on-stream between the period 2005-2010 (taken from my own report, launch date now set at the end of October due to media-related reasons).
This analysis showed that:
• 23% of the projects were EOR projects
• 12% of the projects were discovered before 1980
• 7% of the projects were discovered between 1980 and 1989
• 29% of the projects were discovered between 1990 and 1999
• 18% of the projects were discovered between 2000 and 2004
• 11% of the projects were unconventional projects (tar sands and orinoco heavy oil)
Some Specific oil projects discovery - on stream time lag
Golfinho
Country: Brazil
Type: offshore
Discovery date: 2003
Reserves: unknown
Production starting date: 1st half 2006
Amount of production: 100.000 b/d
Operator: Petrobras
Constitution
Country: Gulf of Mexico
Type: Offshore
Discovery date: 2002
Reserves: unknown
Production starting date: 2006
Amount of production: 70.000 b/d
Operator: Kerr-Mcgee
Muniteer-Exeter
Country: Australia
Type: offshore
Discovery date: 2003
Reserves: unknown
Production starting date: 2005, full production expected in 2006
Amount of production: 100.000 b/d
Operator: Santos
Luda
Country: China
Type: offshore
Discovery date: 2000-2002
Reserves: unknown
Production starting date: 2005
Amount of production: 40.000 b/d
Operator: ConocoPhilips
Tui
Country: Maui
Type: offshore
Discovery date: 2002-2004
Reserves: 20-30 million barrels
Production starting date: 2006
Amount of production: 30.000 b/d
Operator: Taranaki
As an average distribution we see that newly discovered fields are at the moment coming on-stream on average 4-6 years after they have been discovered. Sometimes this is 3 years and in very special cases 2 years.
The fields coming from the "existing reserve base" or in other words, discoveries made before the year 2000 are rapidly being brought into production due to economic factors (high price of oil) and technological possibilities. Or in other words we are eating the "lower fruit"
Almost all projects coming on-stream are offshore oil projects (except for EOR and Unconventional). This is a serious issue since offshore oil fields rapidly decline on average after 10-15 years of production.