[MonteQuest]

Yes, I have been thinking about posting a piece on Liebig's Law which is the operating principle for determining carrying capacity.

Here it is:


http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic1687.html

[lowem]

Hey, another Singapore member. The "Singapore delegation" has "arrived", muahaha ..

Singapore won't even exist after the crap hits the fan talk about the worse scenario 3 million refugees flooding into Malaysia...They probably shoot to keep obnoxious Singaporeans out.

In fact, I think some of the local mafia are already doing that, those cases of Merc/BMW/Ferrari owners getting shot in JB?

The whole of Malaysia registers an avail. eco-footprint of 0.4 ha/cap, wish I have more recent figures. I suspect that East Malaysia is contributing a huge chunk to that. But all in all, much better than the Singapore situation.

At least they still have EGGS right now, dammit!

I am getting out of here myself. I'd like to go to Malaysia too but they only let you in if you have lots of money & about to croak. So I m settling for Oz. Hope my brothers gets his Permanent Residence soon so I can be sponsored.

Well, I dunno. On the one hand, Australia does have a rather good ha/cap rating. They're a net food exporter. They have mineral resources. They're far from everywhere else with the ocean as a huge buffer on all sides. On the other hand, Australian oil is peaking, as a minority, Pauline-Hanson-type of behaviour might rear its ugly head any time, they've been specifically targeted for terrorism (currently proxied via Bali, Jakarta but, who knows) and once Australia becomes a net oil *importer*, well, it's far from everywhere else ...

So there are pros, and cons. I have family moved there, colleagues moved there, all looking for a better life. I wish all who have done so, and are doing so, all the best. Me, I'm still trying to figure it out.

What's the best country, indeed.

[lowem]

Ah, the "ASEAN delegation" has also arrived ...

Hi everyone. I am from East Malaysia (Sarawak). This is my first post. Some problem occurred "Account suspended" and I had to register again after 24 hours. Hello lowem, I admit that East Malaysia is a little bit isolated from so called modern civilization. However, we are not "living on trees" as it is "preached" by those mass media. We just don't allow any West Malaysian to be state's citizen as in the unification agreement in 1963. BTW , ADSL broadband at 384kbps only costs approximately USD 17.50 per month and USD 23.20 for 512 kbps . It can only be available in major towns.

Hi, welcome to the board.

"Living on trees" huh, nah, I'd suppose that you can find a "civilized lifestyle" in the bigger towns, yeah. But there *are* natives too, like gogota said, right. Actually I think they'd do much better. One, they never "needed" all that fossil power, and two, they probably don't know what they might have missed anyway, far away from all the toxic consumeristic culture.

Got broadband too, eh. I'm a "high-bandwidth consumer", will take whatever kbps there are ... - the rates look pretty competitive, I'd have thought that it might cost more than that.

I am from Central Sarawak , Sibu. Currently working in Kuching City . Never meet gogota before. Another peaker from Kuching Never expected anyone from Malaysia in this forum. Normally people here said Sarawak got unlimited oil as most Malaysian oil fields are situated in Sarawak. "We are net oil exporter , you know . "

Yes, but not unlimited. Malaysia's oil reserves are, what, about 2-3 billion barrels? That's good for just about 1 month of global oil usage.

But, much better than nothing (i.e. Singapore). And exporting countries have the advantage - they have something that keeps going up in value (in fiat currencies, anyway) - don't have to do much about it, in fact the less exploration and production, the more valuable it gets later (!)

What he wrote is quite true. Malaysian are addicted to "cheap oil". Everyone had the ambition to own a car. Malaysian government subsidies the petrol price heavily.

Is it an all-out subsidy? We Singaporeans should not have been allowed to cross over and refuel at all. Or is it simply a matter of lower (or no) taxes. I'm not sure.

What I do know is that for every dollar worth of petrol over here in Singapore, 40 cents goes to taxes.

So if you eliminate the tax part, the cost of petrol will be almost the same (!).

So I think, what gov.my means by "subsidy" is just forgoing the tax revenue they might have earned. Which is why gov.sg has the "3/4 tank" rule for outgoing Singapore cars - they do *not* want to forgo their 40% tax revenue if more of us were to cross over and top up our tanks on the other side (!)

BTW , Sarawak had a lot of land and water. Water is not a problem here. But water pollution and deforestation is a serious problem. Almost 33 percent Sarawakian directly or indirectly involved in oil extraction and timber harvesting industries. "Jobs or stupid trees" "Our families depend on us." . Typical reaction like those 'Easter Island' people.

Chop chop chop. If there were more East Malaysian citizens you'd really end up more like Easter Island, growth being the problem.

And my brother is drafted to joined this camp soon in November. Just hope he don't kill himself or downed with Malaria in the forest. BTW , he is so happy as the TV show some Rambo like training styles. Bullshit.

Well, I can tell ya - the more common problems are the mundane ones - training injuries, accidents, heat stroke ...

Nobody here believe in peak oil . None nil. So I had to made a bet if oil price goes to USD 48 , I win the bet and will treated them with some cheap beers. If it goes down to USD 40 I treat them in a good restaurant . It made them aware of oil price and keep monitoring the price during news time I guess.

Was that before the 20 Aug spike to $49.40 on NYMEX - you should already have won - if you made the bet after that, well, don't worry, unless the price collapses under the support level, you should win!

[gogota]

"Living on trees" huh, nah, I'd suppose that you can find a "civilized lifestyle" in the bigger towns, yeah. But there *are* natives too, like gogota said, right. Actually I think they'd do much better. One, they never "needed" all that fossil power, and two, they probably don't know what they might have missed anyway, far away from all the toxic consumeristic culture.

hmmm.... my wife is a native.... but they do need fossil power..... like the electricity in the whole sarawak are mostly generated by natural gas.... they do have tv, motorcycle, sugar and vcd. But I think the old one will survive without fossil oil. That is why I am moving my home to the rural area so that me and my kid can start to learn to live a life with nature

[BorneoRagnarok]

BorneoRagnarok wrote:
I am from Central Sarawak , Sibu. Currently working in Kuching City . Never meet gogota before. Another peaker from Kuching Never expected anyone from Malaysia in this forum. Normally people here said Sarawak got unlimited oil as most Malaysian oil fields are situated in Sarawak. "We are net oil exporter , you know . "

Yes, but not unlimited. Malaysia's oil reserves are, what, about 2-3 billion barrels? That's good for just about 1 month of global oil usage.

No. Perception is reality. At least temporary one until down the slope of peak energy. Remember Galileo Galilei ,the Roman Catholic Church and the centre of the universe theory. That honourable guy just want to seek the truth of science and he was accused and convicted of heresy by high priests. Church disagreed with his reasons and facts and told him to stop telling the truth about science. They just refused to look through the telescope or simply denied the facts.

Was that before the 20 Aug spike to $49.40 on NYMEX - you should already have won - if you made the bet after that, well, don't worry, unless the price collapses under the support level, you should win!

No, that one is back in July 2004. So I win but lose $$ . The price will not collapsed unless Hurricane Ivan or any Category 4 hurrricane destroyed more energy consuming homes and businesses in those Gulf states and beyond.
The scale of devastation is simply beyond my imagination . Maybe hurricane is usual in USA, where brave men and women live in the path of Category 4 hurricane. No wonder , those Native American moved around. They tried to avoid hurricane .

Gogota wrote

hmmm.... my wife is a native.... but they do need fossil power..... like the electricity in the whole sarawak are mostly generated by natural gas.... they do have tv, motorcycle, sugar and vcd. But I think the old one will survive without fossil oil. That is why I am moving my home to the rural area so that me and my kid can start to learn to live a life with nature

Sematan is a nice place. So your wife come from West Sarawak. It is almost unknown territory. Are you sure those hungry Indonesians cannot reach there ? It is just 2 hours drive from Kuching. Or for that matter hungry Malaysian ?? How you keep out boatloads of refugees from Kuching ?? A lot of people have boats in Kuching. Can Pueh Mountain keep those Indonesians out ? Can the settlement survived Indonesian pirate attack from Pandan and Siar beach ? Indonesia is only a few hours boat ride away from Sematan

[lowem]

Sematan is a nice place. So your wife come from West Sarawak. It is almost unknown territory. Are you sure those hungry Indonesians cannot reach there ? It is just 2 hours drive from Kuching. Or for that matter hungry Malaysian ?? How you keep out boatloads of refugees from Kuching ?? A lot of people have boats in Kuching. Can Pueh Mountain keep those Indonesians out ? Can the settlement survived Indonesian pirate attack from Pandan and Siar beach ? Indonesia is only a few hours boat ride away from Sematan

Are we talking guns again?

The folks over at energyresources have discussed this issue over and over. We have no real conclusions because none of us can predict the future. What could one do? Try to build an "impregnable" fortress? Join a roving marauder tribe? Or join some army / para-military / vigilante group? Those are the "Mad Max" scenarios.

Jay Hanson talked about becoming a millionaire, or better, billionaire. Last time I checked, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier (CVN-class) cost over a billion dollars (excluding the planes, which will cost another billion or so). In terms of dollars (only), that's about right. But I sure don't see a Soros or a Buffett "investing" in a complete carrier task force, though

So ... the trillion-dollar question - fast crash? or slow crash?

[BorneoRagnarok]

The most probable outcome should be slow crash.
Even Easter Island , Maya , Roman Empire crash slowly over a period of hundreds of years. For not so related example , South Vietnam. If you defined Crash as takeover by North Vietnam and the beginning as separation of North and South at 17th Parallel , it took 21 years to crash from 1954 to 1975 .

http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=5096

...the true
civilian casualties of the Vietnam War were 2,000,000 in the north,
and 2,000,000 in the south. Military casualties were 1.1 million
killed and 600,000 wounded in 21 years of war. These figures were
deliberately falsified during the war by the North Vietnamese
Communists to avoid demoralizing the population."

So approximately 5.1 million total Vietnamese casualites.

Slow crash ??

Only in Mad Max movie (1978). It is fast crash as skin head motorbike gangs kills and robs for entertainment , survival and fuel. Or modern day Iraq , where AK-47 , Apache , M1 tanks, suicide bombs ,mortars and bombs are mightier than than law. You may ask whose law ? My law ? Or your law ?

[gogota]

Sematan is a nice place. So your wife come from West Sarawak. It is almost unknown territory. Are you sure those hungry Indonesians cannot reach there ? It is just 2 hours drive from Kuching. Or for that matter hungry Malaysian ?? How you keep out boatloads of refugees from Kuching ?? A lot of people have boats in Kuching. Can Pueh Mountain keep those Indonesians out ? Can the settlement survived Indonesian pirate attack from Pandan and Siar beach ? Indonesia is only a few hours boat ride away from Sematan

Yes. Indonesia is a few hours walk to sematan. But I have think of the situation carefully and I think those people from Indonesia will not be flooding into Sarawak because they are getting used to living without fossil oil. I have seen the way they are living before and they made everything from nature including house. It will be the people in the city that will be killed.

Second. The chances of a slow crash is 60% and fast crash is 40%.

Third, the chances of survival when TSHTF in the city is 25% and rural area is 75%. You cannot make sure you survive in sematan but there is no chance you can survive in the city when TSHTF.

[Cool Hand Linc]

I don't seem to be able to get the link to work. I would really like to check out this site.

[lowem]

Locust plague, mice, and drought in Australia. Not exactly all rosy either. No place safe anymore?

Oz Fights Biggest Locust Plague In Decades
http://www.rense.com/general57/eepel.htm

[MarkB]

lowem, yes the P&D on ag, given climate change and this monumental drought bodes badly in Australia. IMO, people heading to Australia as some sort of peak oil solution makes no sense. Most arrivals to Australia head to Melbourne and Sydney (which are way over crowded) and the dams are falling dangerously. Water is the BIG limiting factor in Australia. One HUGE desert nation and heating up. It's already above carrying capacity.

[BorneoRagnarok]

Thanks Admin (Aaron ??) to activate my account.
Currently Sarawak had enough water supply. However as mentioned in previous post, deforestation is a big problem here. Bring your own water filter.


This picture was taken in my hometown.



This picture is taken in Kuching, Sarawak. Currently I stayed 2 or 3 kilometres away from this garden. See a lot of trees here . We are 'undeveloped' you know.




This picture was taken from Canada Hill , Miri , our oil town. The first Malaysia oil well is situated here. The well only produced a few cups of petroleum a day now.




For more images of Sarawak
http://www.molon.de/galleries/Malaysia/Sarawak/
http://www.thelex.com/sibu/intro.html

The problem is most people here had disconnected from the land. There are too much vacant land (Carrying Capacity) here and yet Malaysia imported rice from other countries.

"We can at least drive lorries up to Thailand to buy rice in an emergency. Borneo is an island, getting rice there takes time."

http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Sho ... /Rice.html

Most young men DON'T WORK in farm anymore. Dirty and tired. No $$$ , no future, chicks don't want poor farmers . In the future, those young men who worked in farms are chicks magnet. :D Currently it is the SUV guys.

[Jenab]

Unless you have good sources to provide on much of the above, I consider it imaginary. Others should as well. Given your previous comments regarding AI--which were also over the top--the information in this post should also be disregarded. Nuclear weapons in satellies my ass.

I've heard a rumor along these lines, although it was hard to tell whether the satellite based weapon involved was a fission bomb or a depleted uranium kinetic energy missile launched from orbit. It was supposedly an anti-nuclear reactor weapon, intended to wreck a foreign reactor and maybe make it look like some kind of accident happened. I really didn't hear enough to be sure.

[tmazanec1]

If the States take the military road, they will delay (not prevent) it here and accelerate it overseas. We will also "load the dice" against an optimal scenario and for a pessimal scenario.