[sameu]

ok, I'm doing a little bit research about the comming UK natural gascrisis
Any thoughts on the geopolitical consequences of this crisis, short term and long term?

They'll get more and more dependent on LNG-shippings and the supply of gas through the interconnector.
I know there are plans for building a second pipeline connecting them with belgium.

Are there any other entrypoints of gas for the uk?

[Permanently_Baffled]

Norway

[evilgenius]

I know Blair has said that if it is too cold business might be impacted. The UK isn't likely to allow people to freeze to death because of a shortage. Whether a business slowdown will impact the pound or if the BofE will raise rates to defend it is anybody's guess. They do have a shakey housing market to worry about. So far prices have levelled rather than dropped in the housing market. Many say there is such demand that housing can sustain a rate shock. Others remember Nigel Lawson's housing crash in the late eighties.

Every time I have been to the UK I have been impressed by how reliant on natural gas they are. Nobody I have run across uses electricity as even a secondary source of heat. I haven't seen too many well insulated houses either. There still exists the odd gas fire as priciple means of heat too. Long term I suppose there will be evolutionairy pressure brought to bear to increase the heat efficiency of their homes. This will lessen their aggregate demand for gas as natural gas too hits its peak production a few years after oil.

[untothislast]

I haven't seen too many well insulated houses either. There still exists the odd gas fire as priciple means of heat too. Long term I suppose there will be evolutionairy pressure brought to bear to increase the heat efficiency of their homes. This will lessen their aggregate demand for gas as natural gas too hits its peak production a few years after oil.

The Blair government recently knocked back legislation which would have required new homebuilds to incorporate efficient insulation measures. All they're interested in is satisfying the demands of competitive business and the markets.

I've also read that the budget for the government's climate change assessment research review has been set at about £25m (or less than the cost of one top-flight premiership footballer). Given that the Millennium Dome debacle alone, absorbed about £1bn in public funds, this gives you some idea how crappy this government is at facing up to harsh reality.

Either they're totally clueless (which signing up for the Iraq invasion suggests isn't the case), or they know how bad things are going to get just over the horizon, and aren't about to spend an awful lot of money locking the stable door after the horse has bolted.

Look for lots of 'business as usual' posturings in the interim, to keep the public in a state of cheerful ignorance. The 2012 Olympics bid will figure prominently.

[evilgenius]

That's right. There was a huge 'back the bid' push leading up to the selection. The powers that be really wanted it while even the queen came out and said that she thought Paris would get it. In any case the bid is a big reason (officially) for the huge investment in the transit infrastructure that is taking place. True petrol is expensive in the UK but they will need that infrastructure when the price goes up beyond what even the English will tolerate.