[grabby]

Using original pumping technology the flow would follow a kind of bell curve if I understand it correctly...

But with new pumping technology they can pump oil faster at higher production than before and it will no longer look like a bell curve.
Those who know a little about oil maybe you can set us at ease here.
If this has been already considered, and there is a name for this scenario, what is it called?


In other words, if it weren't for technology we would be decreasing already?

thanks.

[nero]

Hello grabby,

Don't get caught up with the whole bell curve shape. There isn't any physical or simple scientific reason why oil production should follow that curve. It is simply a model that provides a plausible production scenario. It will no doubt be wrong. After all it has been wrong so far (For instance there is that little blip in 1980 that doesn't follow a bell curve).

Politics, economics and technology are all factors that effect the production profile. You can argue equally plausibly however that each of these factors are just as likely to cause the peak to be advanced as to be delayed. Therefore to make an unbiased estimate I would still advocate using a symetrical bell curve even though I'm sure it will be wrong (I'm just not sure which way).

[sjruckle]

You can definetly extend out the peak by new technology, but the downside is that the other side of the peak will be that much steeper. Decline rates are everything. Look at the North Sea where new technology enabled more oil to be pumped out faster. Technology pushed the peak into the future, but the decline rate is somewhere around 10 or 11 percent, whis is REAl bad. (I might be wrong on the exact number, but I know it's high)

[MonteQuest]

You can definetly extend out the peak by new technology, but the downside is that the other side of the peak will be that much steeper. Decline rates are everything. Look at the North Sea where new technology enabled more oil to be pumped out faster. Technology pushed the peak into the future, but the decline rate is somewhere around 10 or 11 percent, whis is REAl bad. (I might be wrong on the exact number, but I know it's high)

It's 17%.

[julianj]

The Bank of Scotland puts out a monthly report, and one month it was 17% but it seems to fluctuate a lot month to month, I'm not sure why.

The average seems to be around 10%

Not that's anything to dance in the street about.

[aahala]

Hopefully not to hijack the thread into a philosophical discussion, but
we might think of the idea of "theoretical peak". That would be the greater
of some past year's production or the total amount of oil actually left.

I will presume our knowledge of what is left will become increasingly
accurate, so at some point perhaps, the theoretical peak will approach
a limit, like a mathematical function, when compared to some previous
year's production. Whatever the level of technology, you can't get more
out of something than there is. So year after year the theoretical starts
closing in on the past production figure and with some certainty we will
be able to quantify this.

[azreal60]

Grabby, yes there are new technologies out there that can increase pump flow. And yes, to some degree they can let you mask the peak. The issues are these as i see them.

1. When people say "new technology" in relation to energy, alot of the time they are refering to something that hasn't been invented yet. There is no assuming that there is going to be more and more technological advances at the same rate reguarding pumping out oil.

2. Alot of the time what they mean is, we used this method to get more oil here, all we have to do is use this method all over the world and we'll get tons more oil from old wells that didn't use this method. What this statement ignores is often all those methods do is increase production Rate. They don't often increase total production. Most of the total production increasers have been around a good long time. And alot of them damage the strata of the oil field enough that you get a steeper peak and sometimes less lengthy production both because you depleted the feild faster, but also because what was left is no longer available because you injected to much water or gas or what ever you shoved down there to push the oil up.

3. Most of the techs we have have been around for a while. And they haven't really changed peak production in america. America has been in peak since the 70s, and while there where a couple dips in the decline from new techs or a small discovered field, by and large we have been on the downward slope ever since then. And it has been obvious. So i would say unless new pump techs have masked it for this long, and we have been at peak for years, then i don't think the masking effect will be That great. Will it happen yes, but maybe a year or two of difference tops.

[small_steps]

Doubtful, I've talked with some of the pump manufacturers and what they see as emerging technologies within their market. However, it takes a significant effort to make what might seem to be an incremental improvement (whatever it may be) in a product. The same principle applies to most technologies. It really seems that, at least for the next 10 years, the big hurtle is going to be people. People to run the equipment, people to design the equipment, and people to educate the people who do the above. The amount of hours that it takes to make a product commercial (functional, cost effective, and reliable) is being seen as a serious impediment to "progress" or even to maintain the status quo. The political climate, and the oilfield depression of the 80's and 90's cleaned alot of the R&D that would have likely borne fruitition about now. The people that design, build, test, and manufacture the incremental improvements are those with the same skill sets as those who will be doing the same for the rest of the transportation economy, and the economy as a whole.

This could very well be the resurgance of science and engineering in the US, and possibly the world outside of asia (where, the resurgance has already begun - or continued?). However, it takes some time for people to be trained and become proficient in these trades. So out beyond 10 - 15 years, little can be predicted. As some have pointed out, panic, and the perception that the world as you know is about to change to the worse, can be powerful motivators. When the general population sees what has happened, and understand that a great change is occurring, some will feel overwhelmed, and some will see the opprotunity that lies beyond. We should understand both feelings, and to calm the overwhelmed, and to encourage those those who see the opprotunity.