Dezakin wrote:We won't have to dig any out of the ground, since there's so much in the houses, wires, etc. there's a LOT of copper per capita and population's going to go way down, remember. I'd not stock up on any metals.
I dont see any evidence of a population implosion or a decline in copper demand.
Dezakin has a point. Copper prices have DOUBLED in the past few years. Above ground reserves are at record lows. The copper we can recycle will have to come out of our standard of living. All of our electrical wiring contains copper and if you want to run the world on an electrical grid, you will need copper.
True, we have mined quite a bit of the stuff, but the costs involved with taking apart a computer to get that little bit out will make copper rather expensive compared to today's prices. Copper mining ain't like it was back in the day. We used to have 50% copper mines (at the start of the copper age). Now we have .03% copper mines that are only profitable with cheap energy.
Aluminum smelting requires a great deal of energy. Many smelters are going broke as it is, think about what another doubling of energy prices might do. There are several other good conductors, but silver is far more expensive to use and gold...
Dezakin is also right about population growth. When, in the history of mankind, have we had a 90% population reduction worldwide? The only time I can think of was back in 30,000(?)BCE when a massive volcanic reaction nearly wiped out our species. Population growth is likely to continue for decades. Even a global pandemic will only encourage the survivors to create more little ones to fill the labor gap. The ONLY drop is population growth occurs because of modernization. More cars, more computers, more wealth=less kids. What happens when we step backward into the dark ages? More kids and the same level of medical understanding.
There is NO gurantee that human population growth will slow down any time soon. Food is our key resource and food production must grow every year or someone dies. Humanity will not allow 90%+ of its members to starve to death overnight. Governments will be forced to get food for The People or risk revolution.
I guess I'm feeling doomy this morning.