[Taskforce_Unity]

One of the most important things to model is the future depletion rate for the whole world.

With depletion rate in this sense i mean

World production 2005 = current production 2004 - depletion 2005 + new production 2005

My guess is that this depletion rate lies a bit above 2 mb/d for the whole world.

I have no way off telling how this will evolve so it would be cool if anyone with more knowledge on "real" modelling could do some sort of analysis on it. I am willing to provide the data / numbers i have as always.

[Armageddon]

if depletion rates are 2 mbpd, and we need an additional 5 % of new oil for economic growth, taking in account for new fields ( not sure if there are any ) , where does that leave us for 2006 ? Is it possible we have peaked at 84 mbpd ?

[Cool Hand Linc]

can you send me the numbers?

[email protected]

[Antimatter]

You can get a rough handle on this by taking the inverse of the reserve to production ratio and multiplying by 100 to get it in percentage terms. For a world R/P ratio of 40 years this gives 2.5%/year. For 84mb/d this is 2.1mb/d which is close to your estimate. This is really just percentage of remaining reserves produced each year but should give a decent approximation when used accross a large cluster of fields. The assumption is a linear relationship between remaining reserves and production rate, ie. produce 2.5% of the reserves, production falls by 2.5%.

Non-OPEC non-FSU has an R/P of 13.5 years which suggests a decline rate of 7.4%/year, at 36mb/d this would be 2.6mb/d per year. Which is higher than the world estimate so maybe this doesnt work.

[Taskforce_Unity]

Interesting calculation antimatter.

Any speculations as to the increase in absolute depletion rates?

[RedViking]

.......so maybe this doesnt work.

The US has had an RP between 8 and 16 for the last 80 years (source Jean LaHerrere). This gives a decline between 6 and 12 percent.

It doesn't work since you don't take reserve growth into account.

[Taskforce_Unity]

The question is wether reserve growth is an issue or not...

Anyway some new info:

Depletion rates Type I + II + III:

Exxon-Mobil

4-6%

Shell

4-5% (necessary new production to reach 120 mb/d in 2030 --> 90 mb/d)

IEA

8%-10% (necessary new production to reach 120 mb/d in 2030 --> 210 mb/d, check out this presentation slide 14

Depletion rates type II + III (current)

Skrebowski - 3.3 mb/d per year

PONL - 2.4 mb/d per year


So who is right.. If IEA is right then we peak in the coming years, if SKrebowks is right we also do.

I don't think we are depleting that fast though..

[Tanada]

The question is wether reserve growth is an issue or not...

Anyway some new info:

Depletion rates Type I + II + III:

Exxon-Mobil

4-6%

Shell

4-5% (necessary new production to reach 120 mb/d in 2030 --> 90 mb/d)

IEA

8%-10% (necessary new production to reach 120 mb/d in 2030 --> 210 mb/d, check out this presentation slide 14

Depletion rates type II + III (current)

Skrebowski - 3.3 mb/d per year

PONL - 2.4 mb/d per year


So who is right.. If IEA is right then we peak in the coming years, if SKrebowks is right we also do.

I don't think we are depleting that fast though..

But you are completly ignoring dynamic effects, so far as I can tell. While Skrebowski projects 2005 depletion at 3.3 mb/d I have not seen anyone project the effects when everyone goes into depletion. Well that's not quite accurate, if world depletion is 4% after everyone enters the slide and we top out at 90 mb/d we would have 86.4 mb/d the second year and 82.9 mb/d the third year, which is real demand destruction because we currently consume more than that.

This is why I don't beleive in the 'bumpy plateau' so many people have put their faith in as a warning sign. When the super giant fields in SA hit depletion we are going into significant world wide decline.

It only matters up to a point how much reserves you have, geology limits how fast you can pump your reserves especially if most of them are one field.

[Antimatter]

hmm...would it be possible to do a retrospective analysis i.e. calculate gross production from projects that came online in say 2004, and use this to figure out decline?

Of course OPEC quotas etc will screw this up but it should work for non-OPEC if the data is avaliable.

I also get the feeling this is somethat that, on a world wide scale, only changes gradually over time as old fields decline and new ones are brought online (often at higher depletion rates).