In this extremely simplified thought experiment I will use my native country of Sweden as an example in trying to understand how high oil prices the economy can sustain. My numbers will be very fuzzy on the edges, and if you can do better calculations with better numbers I would be very happy about it. Also I would very much appreciate if you comment on any logical holes you find in my argument.
All right. Right now, with oil at almost $60 a barrel, gas at the pump cost $1.5 a litre in Sweden. Three quarters of this is tax. That means that if the tax is removed, oil prices must quadruple to stay $1.5 at the pump. That means something like $240 a barrel.
This of course means less tax revenue to the state, but the Swedish government is very wasteful and it would be very possible to raise other taxes, reduce government grants or remove structural inefficiences in the economy if necessary (though it would mean lots of wailing and gnashing of teeth).
Then we have the hybrid issue. Hybrids use approximately half as much gas as conventional cars do. That means that if you have a hybrid the oil price can double without it getting any more expensive (for you) at the pump. This put the oil price at $480 per barrel.
Of course buying everyone a hybrid in an instant will be impossible. But Swedes buy new cars every ten or fifteen years in any case. As the oil price increase more and more people will buy hybrids.
Though I in this text haven't managed to answer what oil price the economy can sustain, I have shown that an oil price of almost $500 a barrel will not have a very radical effect on Swedish society or economy.
Any thoughts on this? Any criticism?
edit: Maybe this is the wrong forum? If that is so, it would be nice of the mods to move this thread.