mgibbons19 wrote:
Shipping costs change --> the whole equation changes.
Yes it changes, but I dont think that, in itself, is necessarily too serious. I think there are plenty of goods we could stop shipping halfway round the world, with little serious consequence. Adjustment, yes, but cataclysmic consequence? Not necessarily. I suspect there are also lots of other current uses of oil we could do without that would have little serious effect.
E.g. thinking of food, what are the reasons why we currently ship it round the planet to countries in the west?
1. some things simply can't be realistically produced at home. E.g. bananas in Scotland
2. some produce is of higher quality that cant be obtained locally. E.g wine in the UK. The French and Australian stuff is better, although we can do some (generally 2nd rate) stuff ourselves.
3. some produce, which can equally well be grown locally, is cheaper to source overseas and ship in.
I doubt that the volume of shipped goods in class (1) would be much reduced by an oil shortage, until it really got quite bad. Type (3) would be more or less eliminated. Type (2) would reduce. The decrease in (2) and all of (3) would be compensated by increase in locally produced foods. Consider that at present some of this stuff is shipped round the world in AIRPLANES e.g. out of season strawberries etc. What a stupendous waste of energy, just to satisfy our expectation of being able to eat what we want, whenever we want. Its only relatively recently that we've grown used to having everything whenever we want, something we could easily do without.
Of course, the cost of all foods that do get shipped long distance will continue to go up, all resulting in decreasing shipped food, and compensating increasing consumption of locally produced foods. We will see a reduction in the diversity of what we eat. But thats not really so hard.
Curiously, the huge diversity of foodstuffs we in the west now enjoy hasnt done us any good. We have significantly increased diet-related health problems than the previous 2 generations, if obesity and other diet problems are considered.
Thinking of non-food goods, I expect theres probably lots of stuff shipped around the world we could easily do without. E.g. think of all those millions of cheap plastic toys that get handed out in fast-food restaurants. They're all made in China and get shipped halfway across the planet to get discarded after a few minutes distraction in a burger bar. No doubt lots of oil is used making the stuff too. Ok, its a trivial example, but no doubt there are others.
Of course, there are going to be some very serious problems for some countries. E.g. China, USA. But other aspects of the impact will be just 'change', not necessarily all 'bad change'. Most of these changes are one form or other of conservation. I suspect there are huge opportunities for conserving oil when we really focus on it. Yes its change. Some of it will be major change. Some of it will be very good change too. Like CO2 emission reductions. To date, we simply haven't had to bother because the wells just keep flowing. I think we tend to forget one thing about human society in the west: it is one of continual change. We shouldnt necessarily fear change. Look back at the history of the last 150 years in the west. Vast, continuous change, particularly in 1900-1950. We shouldnt fear all change; some aspects of what may be coming are to be truly welcomed.
