[Enquest]

How much must OPEC and especialy Saudi compansate for the loss of other country's. The USA loses each year a few % of there oil production. Who compensates this. Noth Sea lost 12 to 17% production. Who compensated.

If you add the numbers up of deplation then whe should know a production increase of OPEC isn't realy a global production increase but a compensation. As more and more contry's go in decline there must be more compensated.

Can somebody give the numbers?

[pup55]

Increases in production 2004 vs. 2003

Code: Select all

Iraq   50.1%
Equatorial Guinea   40.6%
Ecuador   25.3%
Other Africa   22.7%
Sudan   18.0%
Vietnam   17.4%
Kazakhstan   16.5%
Venezuela   13.7%
Angola   12.0%
Nigeria   10.8%
Russian Federation   8.7%
Kuwait   8.3%
Qatar   8.0%
Libya   8.0%
Denmark   6.3%
United Arab Emirates   4.7%
Algeria   4.1%
Malaysia   3.9%
Saudi Arabia   3.5%
Canada   2.7%
China   2.6%
India   2.4%
Tunisia   2.3%
Iran   2.0%
Azerbaijan   1.3%
Peru   1.1%
Mexico   0.9%
Turkmenistan   0.2%

[Shiraz]

Type 3 Depletion: This occurs when a whole country is in decline, there are no compensating supplies within the country and customers can no longer get all the supplies they require. This means that customers now have to go to an alternative supplier for some or for all of their requirement.

This is radically different from Type 1 & 2 depletion because for the alternative supplier this is new and to some degree unexpected demand.

Chris Skrebowski on Understanding Depletion

and therefore following this logic, you find the numbers here:

Megaprojects Report

Although this is old, most of the numbers are still good. The main exception is the demand figure, which even now looks ridiculously low.

[Taskforce_Unity]

North Sea is NOT declining with 12 to 17% per year. UK North Sea oil has declined last year with 10%. On average it is declining with 7.56% the last few years. Buzzard is coming online (+200.000) next year Halting the decline. Norway North Sea is declining with 2% per year. Denmark is going to decline in 2006. Germany is increasing Etc.

so 12 to 17% = bullshit, UK GAS was declining with 17% last year.

ODAC"s Megaproject numbers are way too pessimistic. Two reasons.

They do not include some projects which are above the +100.000 barrels per day category

They exclude ALL projects under 100.000 barrels per day category...

Currently Skrebowksi uses a Gross increase of around 15 mb/d, this is even too pessimistic. 18 mb/d is more realistic. and probably also too pessimistic.

[Enquest]

do you also have the barrels numbers. A increas of 50 % going from 50 to 75 is much a decrese of 5 % going from 10 mil to 9 mil barrels is a lot!

[pup55]

Code: Select all

   2003   2004   pct chg
Chad   24   168   600.0%
Iraq   1350   2027   50.1%
Equatorial Guinea   249   350   40.6%
Ecuador   427   535   25.3%
Other Africa   75   92   22.7%
Sudan   255   301   18.0%
Vietnam   364   427   17.4%
Kazakhstan   1111   1295   16.5%
Venezuela   2622   2980   13.7%
Angola   885   991   12.0%
Nigeria   2263   2508   10.8%
Russian Federation   8544   9285   8.7%
Kuwait   2238   2424   8.3%
Qatar   917   990   8.0%
Libya   1488   1607   8.0%
Denmark   371   394   6.3%
United Arab Emirates   2547   2667   4.7%
Algeria   1857   1933   4.1%
Malaysia   878   912   3.9%
Saudi Arabia   10222   10584   3.5%
Canada   3004   3085   2.7%
China   3401   3490   2.6%
India   800   819   2.4%
Tunisia   68   69   2.3%
Iran   3999   4081   2.0%
Azerbaijan   313   318   1.3%
Peru   92   93   1.1%
Mexico   3789   3824   0.9%
Turkmenistan   202   202   0.2%

[Aaron]

so 12 to 17% = bullshit, UK GAS was declining with 17% last year.

Remember this is a compound loss...

25% depletion in North Sea so far... and counting...

[Taskforce_Unity]

so 12 to 17% = bullshit, UK GAS was declining with 17% last year.

Remember this is a compound loss...

25% depletion in North Sea so far... and counting...

You mean (17+7) / 2 = 12%

12% depletion in UK north Sea so far.

Norway, Denmark have far lower depletion rates.