[Newfie]

Tanada,

Thanks for your perspective, as always well reasoned.

I like to follow Zeihan and note the areas where you and he either agree or disagree.

Being the Devil’s (Zeihan) advocate ai think he would disagree with little save noting that BOTH Biden (who has adapted (and codified) much of Trumps hard line on China) and Trump are down on China. But also China’s failing demographic, economic problems, and one man rule are scaring companies out of China into the USA and Mexico. See Trumps recent “blood bath” comments on Chinese Mexican auto production. It seems even the Chinese are seeking to get out of China. The bottom line being much Western sponsored production is already exiting China.

This scenario will see Chinas need (not want) for power diminishing. It is likely their already in existing and in construction infrastructure will be sufficient, al be it dirty. They are already moving recent college graduates back into rural communities for farming. They have been enough excess housing (urban condos) for the entire population to move into new unoccupied areas and quarters so the house construction industry is a goner.

Where you two seem different is you seem to project a continued ascendence of China while Zeihan sees a drastic collapse.

[Newfie]

Tanada,

As a side note: Good Grief why are we discussing this here on this thread?

[Tanada]

Tanada,

As a side note: Good Grief why are we discussing this here on this thread?

Good point I will move this chunk of content.

[theluckycountry]

...It seems even the Chinese are seeking to get out of China. The bottom line being much Western sponsored production is already exiting China.

Can they take the factories with them? No, they will abandon most of it, and china will move locals into them and continue manufacturing like the Russians did when the Western companies pulled out over the ukraine sanctions issue. Mexico? It's run by cartels now, not a particularly safe environment. But it hardly matters because China will still undercut them in price. It's over for the West. The future is the East, many now realize that.

[theluckycountry]

Yes, as it typical in these sunshine and lollipops scenarios they completely ignore the sunk cost in the thousands of coal burning power stations now scattered over the PRC landscape. A typical modern coal plant, which everything built by the PRC in the last twenty years is for a variety of reasons, is designed to operate for 40-60 years. That locks in burning something, mostly cheap coal, for at least that period of time.

Of course! Though I never looked at that, but it's obvious once you point it out. It stares you in the face and there is no retort aside from abandoning them as stranded assets which often happens but only when the new technology far exceeds the old one in performance and savings. Like the switch from telegraph to wireless and telephone. millions of miles of copper wire and poles were often abandoned. From national microwave links to optic cable. Billions in infrastructure simply abandoned but only because the new tech was cheaper and vastly better at transmitting data.

I call these Big things the elephants in the room and surprisingly they go unnoticed? Like the massive volumes of gasoline that come out at the refinery. What do you do with it once all the cars go EV. It will still come out with the Diesel, the bunker oil, asphalt, and all else.

Are they gonna simply pump it back into the well