Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
5 - CONCLUSION
In this paper, the World3 model of the LtG study has been recalibrated to reflect the behavior of empirical data over the last 50 years. For this purpose, 35 parameters of the model were selected and optimized for a selected set of eight different empirical data sets that most closely reflect historical developments. An algorithm was developed to minimize the aggregated NRMSD between the model data and the empirical data using aniterative method. A new scenario with the improved parameter set was presented. Of the original 1972 LtG scenarios, the BAU scenario matches these parameters and the evolution of the variables most closely. Like the BAU scenario of the LtG publication, the new scenario Recalibration23reflects the overshoot and collapse mode due to resource scarcity. However, the peaks of certain variables are raised and partially shifted intothe future
Pops wrote:My thought here is the new model still predicts die-off predicated on first, falling natural resources, then a dive in both food and industrial production.
None of that is evident. Non-renewable natural resources certainly haven't fallen by 75%. Surely we've been consuming them but not sure where the "empirical" data is behind this plot.
Starvation is a given though. You can't make fertilizer or pesticide with oil and gas.
Pops wrote:I spent my first 60 years as somewhat of a doomer. Now that I've lived longer than my parents I don't worry about things as much. In fact I try to keep a positive outlook for my grandkids—they never listened anyway, LOL
As pollution mounts and industrial input into agriculture falls, food production per capita falls. Health and education services are cut back, and that combines to bring about a rise in the death rate from about 2020.
Pops wrote:.
Globalism and wealth inequality explains the current rise in authoritarian ethno-nationalism quite well.
As the graphs show, the University of Melbourne research has not found proof of collapse as of 2010 (although growth has already stalled in some areas). But in Limits to Growth those effects only start to bite around 2015-2030.
theluckycountry wrote:There are indeed more calories available today, cheap carbs in cardboard boxes, making half the nations Obese. Healthy calories though, natural foods, they are on the decline ..
Pops wrote:As for what food is produced, you can bet farmers only grow what people buy, it isn't their job to force a healthy diet.
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