[AdamB]

We can now confidently say that as of August 2023, we definitely haven't reached peak oil in the Permian basin.

Strikes me that you confidently said that the Permian peaked back in 2019? And who "we" is confidently predicting? You who can't decide if you confidently predicted global peak in 2005, or more recently with the IEA, or did the ghost of Deffeyes come to you in your sleep and tell you he apologizes for having led suckers like you astray the last time, but it's okay to pretend you weren't one of them and just do the broken clock routine and hope no one notices?

[Plantagenet]

[
Strikes me that you confidently said that the Permian peaked back in 2019?

You are a liar liar pants on fire.

But I expected no more from you....

However, I did get my laugh of the day from your post.

I blocked you months ago because I rarely saw anything interesting in your posts. All too often your posts are dumb, filled with lies, and serve only as ad hom attacks on other posters.

I haven't looked at one of posts for months, but you recently posted several times in this thread I started so I thought maybe I should see what you've been posting.

And....wow!...... this time you're lying AND you're posting something dumb for the sole purpose of making yet another dishonest ad hom attack.

I'm sorry but I have to laugh. Your post was even dumber and more dishonest then I expected.

My prediction is right in the title of this thread. Look at the title and try to read it. Look up any words that you don't understand. Take it slow and read out loud if you have to.....now do you understand what the words in the title to this thread mean?

Perhaps the math is too difficult for you? Perhaps you think the year 2019 is part of the 2020s? Well...it's not.

The title of this thread reads: Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

Yes....my prediction is for the 2020s.

I chose that title when I started this thread so people who saw the title would understand that this thread is about my prediction that peak oil in the Permian basin will occur in the 2020s....

I never dreamed that someone like you would be incapable of understanding what the title means. The meaning is very clear.

It occurs to me, not of the first time, that you may be dyslexic or have some other kind of disability that affects your reading ability?

If so, then I probably can't help you with your reading comprehension issues.

And, of course, the whole reason I blocked is that you've previously shown this same kind of inability to comprehend what you read, and I know from prior experience that I can explain the meaning of my thread title to you over and over again, but you will never understand.

Its seems to all be totally beyond you.

Well....thats OK.

Everybody is different.

Not everybody can understand what all the words mean, much less what the sentences mean.

You are entitled to your opinion, even when it's totally nonsensical. Thats the American way....

I only ask that you stop lying about what I'm posting.....especially when what I posted is right in front of your eyes in the title of my thread.


My prediction that oil production in the Permian basin and on a global basis will peak in the 2020s is right in the title of this thread I started......read it if you can!!!!!

Cheers!

[Peak_Yeast]

The way peak oil is being redefined to avoid realizing the fact that easy quality oil is getting scarcer is amazing..

I am starting to think we will never hit peak oil. But what will happen is that they will include electricity generated in solarcells and windmills in the BOe. When that is not enough they will include hot air, and bullshit into BOe. Just the fact that things changed from BO to BOe is trying to lie to yourself.

The original predictions about peak oil was for conventional oils. Not all sorts of other stuff and accounting magics...

And concerning EROEI - yes everything is dependent on EROEI even if it can be obfuscated in a complex system filled with dishonest money practices and actors.

[AdamB]

Strikes me that you confidently said that the Permian peaked back in 2019?

You are a liar liar pants on fire.
But I expected no more from you....

And not being familiar with your own posting history is what I expected from you.

I agree completely. After we hit Peak Permian in 2020, we'll see more NG cars.

You'll notice you didn't say "2020's".

And I hereby modify my claim to accept I could only find you being a sucker (recently) for Permian in 2020.

So how about some data? No...not articles claiming to show dems bailing dead guys out of the morgue, like real live data.

The monthly highest rate of Permian oil production in 2020 or 2021 was 5.2 mmbbl/d in December of 2021. 2020 doesn't seem fair because of Covid, so I generously gave you another year, but obviously 2020 was a bad year and not because of lack of oil.

The current monthly rate of Permian oil production is 5.8 mmbbl/d as of March 2023. So just to be clear to those who do story telling geology rather than say geophysics, no Permian peak oil yet, years after you were falling for every piece of bait danged in front of you.

It's called data. You add it up, look at the totals, etc etc.

I blocked you months ago because I rarely saw anything interesting in your posts.

I imagine creating an echo chamber is exactly what soft money professors do when they are operating at their typical level of myopia. Scientists that aren't part of the soft money, undergrad babysitting game take any and all incoming fire. A) Because if we weren't any good at what we do we'd be myopic college professors baby sitting the undergrads, and B) you never know when someone else might actually know something you don't, and it might be important enough to incorporate in analysis going forward.

Academics often have good ideas (I can't name any from your backwater for some reason), and will dedicate a career towards proving how wrong they are in many different ways, and scientists appreciate it so we don't need to waste the a month of our time demonstrating it to our own satisfaction.

[AdamB]

And concerning EROEI - yes everything is dependent on EROEI even if it can be obfuscated in a complex system filled with dishonest money practices and actors.

If I understand the eroei graphs correctly, eroei has been decreasing since soon after Drake drilled his first well and oil just flowed out of the ground with very little effort. Negatively correlated with the ever decreasing eroei since that time, we have had ever increasing oil production.

So if decreasing eroei is happening at the same time that increasing oil production is happening, isn't this a bit counter-intuitive to the entire eroei idea of less eroei is bad...as opposed to more oil production happening simultaneously, which is good (depending on your environmental or economic concerns anyway).

[Plantagenet]

The original predictions about peak oil was for conventional oils. Not all sorts of other stuff and accounting magics...

The were several people who made predictions 15-40 years ago and they were well aware of all the unconventional oil sources like the tar sands, shale oil, etc. etc. but they believed back then that these kinds of oil couldn't be produced cheaply and in large quantities.

They were clearly very wrong about that.


Oil from shale has proven to be a very significant resource....however just like conventional oil it is not an infinite resource.

Thats why modern attempts to predict when peak oil will occur do include shale oil and other varieties of oil.

For instance, my prediction that peak oil will occur in the 2020s is primarily based upon the fact that conventional oil production seems to have already have plateaued, and unconventional oil and tight oil from sources like the Permian Basin are likely to peak as well in the very late 2020s. Add to that the issues with Greenhouse Warming caused by fossils fuels and the huge government effort to subsidize a transition away from oil, and either global peak oil production or global peak oil demand or both happening in the late 2020s seems to me to be a likely outcome.

Cheers!

[Peak_Yeast]

I see you conveniently avoid the detail that it was conventional oil and it has largely been correct.

Concerning shale / tar sands: These are by IEA predicted to peak in the 2020s - A very short respite. And besides for most of the time they have not been profitable despite high oil prices - and they certainly are not profitable at the oil prices that we used to have before 2003 where conventionals seems to have reached the peak - after that we see extreme volatility and high prices. I know it is a long time ago, but oil prices in the past 10 years has not only been fluctuation violently but also been much higher than what they used to be. Of course, increasingly lousy reserves will be profitable once prices get high enough. After all fossil fuels are indispensable and every nation are 100% dependent on them and thus will sacrifice everything to get them.

This is a sure sign of peak oil and the declining EROEI - its the stuttering machine having to adapt to a new situation. Just take a look at historical prices and see how the nature of them changes very very suddenly around 2005.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
And yes EROEI has been declining a very long time. At some point it becomes a problem. We are getting close to that place where we can feel the effects of both declining easy cheap resources and the effort to get them. Actually I would say we are feeling them quite badly already.

[theluckycountry]

The date of peak oil was defined as the time of peak extraction, or production of oil globally. It predicted a decline in wealth, living standards, and generally, productivity on the Planet beyond that point. Within the theses so to speak was a clear understanding of the EROEI for oil. I have no doubt the original geologists knew of tight oil reserves and of the ability to convert the Earth's abundant coal in oil equivalents, but dismissed these because it was assumed no one would be stupid enough to waste the remaining conventional oil on the extraction or conversion of these.

Well they were wrong in that assumption. The corporations of the world are more than happy to waste the remaining conventional reserves providing they can turn a profit. In nearly all cases not a profit from the unconventional plays, but from those gullible enough to give them money in the pursuit of this uneconomic oil. Wealth, living standards, and generally, productivity on the planet has declined relentlessly since the peak of conventional oil, even before that date, as Peak_Yeast points out, no doubt because the EROEI had declined. If you doubt any of this just walk out your front door and look at the decaying roads, energy infrastructure and the hundreds of thousands of homeless. Look at the number of people dependent on food stamps.

The nations are running on borrowed time and it doesn't take a fortuneteller to imagine what the roads bridges dams and electricity grids will be like in 20 or 30 years. They will be in ruins just like many of the cheap houses and commercial building build over the past decades because the wealth to maintain, let alone rebuild, no longer exists. The oil age was a one off 100 year event, and it's over. With it's passing will go everything that was build with oil. Yes they are still building houses and bridges etc, because there is still oil to be had. But the quality is garbage compared to what was built in the 1950's when oil was cheap and abundant.

[Plantagenet]

I see you conveniently avoid the detail that it was conventional oil and it has largely been correct.

That's totally incorrect.

I've discussed that many times already in this thread and its even in the title I selected for this thread when I started it. Read the title of the thread, Dude.

Concerning shale / tar sands: These are by IEA predicted to peak in the 2020s -

Yes.

And since conventional oil has already peaked, the world will hit global peak oil production sometime in the 2020s when unconventional peaks as well.

And there is another headwind for global oil production in the 2020s ----- the growing concern over fossils fuels and global warming.


Conventional oil production has already peaked. Unconventional oil will peak in the 2020s.

CHEERS!

[Plantagenet]

In nearly all cases not a profit from the unconventional plays, but from those gullible enough to give them money in the pursuit of this uneconomic oil....

The idea that tight oil was uneconomic was widely held 10-15 years ago when companies started to drill and produce from unconventional tight reservoirs, but in fact there are quite a number of very profitable tight oil companies operating right now in the USA. Their profit margins are smaller then those of companies who produce from large, conventional oil fields, but they can still make profits from unconventional oil, and they can make HUGE profits when the price of oil is high.

Right now the price of oil is creeping up again, and US shale oil companies are doing very very well.

US shale companies enjoy ‘tsunami of cash’ on high oil prices


THis plot is out of date, but the concept still holds true......The higher oil prices go, the more money shale oil companies can make.

But shale oil companies face the same problems going forward as the oil majors.....most of the best land and most of the best plays have already been drilled.

Cheers!

[Peak_Yeast]

And as we see the price has to be much higher than before 2003-2005 for it to be positive.

The price probably somewhat determined by the most expensive barrel that is absolutely needed to run the system - and there definitely is a need for shale oil, tar sands - which then presses up the price.

Concerning peak in 2020s: It is possible that the price will just go much higher to enable extracting even worse resources - once again. But I think we have reached the price level where it will have very visible negative effects on the world economy.

[Plantagenet]

That plot is highly misleading because it suggests that, on average, oil shale oil firms lose money. This just isn't true. I know when the oil shale biz got started many peak oil advocates said that oil shale firms would never be profitable, but that idea has been proven wrong. Some people still say it now, but in fact many shale oil companies are HIGHLY profitable. I've owned stock in these companies in the past, and followed them for years, and please allow me to assure that some of them do indeed make profits.

In addition, that plot "cherry picks" a period of time ending four years ago when the price of oil was quite low. If that plot was extended to include more recent data it would show years of positive free cash flow right up to the present day, ie. that plot would show a todally completely different result.

AND even during the period of low oil prices covered in that plot some firms lost money while other shale oil firms were quite profitable year after year all through the period of your plot.

Also, it's hard to know exactly what companies the plot you posted actually covers, since the term "shale-focussed" firms isn't defined. Does it mean oil producers? Or oil drillers? Or sand suppliers? Or land holding companies? Or banks that loan to oil companies? And did all 30 companies have negative cash flow or did some do well while only a few did very very bad? For instance, Chesapeake did very badly during this period, while Pioneer Resources did quite well.

And there was a huge company named "CARBO CERAMICS" that made ceramics for fracking that went bankrupt during that time period....because all the frackers shifted to using cheaper sand for fracking. Was CARBO CERAMICS one of the "30 shale-focussed" firms? Who knows? And there are far far more than 30 "shale-focussed" firms so were the 30 used to make that plot also "cherry picked"???

The bottom line is anyone expecting the shale oil companies to go out of business under current economic conditions is just going to be disappointed.

In fact at today's oil prices shale oil companies are bringing in "tsunamis of money" now as the FINANCIAL TIMES poetically stated in the article I linked to above.


at today's oil prices shale oil companies are bringing in "tsunamis of money"

When I started this thread back in 2017 to discuss my prediction that oil production would peak in the 2020s, I was looking at the data on the size of the unconventional shale oil reserves and the rate of production by shale oil companies. It's a simple math problem....unconventional oil is going to peak just like conventional oil before it.

Just today I saw a new story that shale oil production is s l o w l y increasing in response to higher oil prices, to the point that the US is about to his its all time high in domestic oil production.

US to hit all time domestic oil production under Joe Biden

I admit that I didn't expect a new all time high in oil production to occur under Joe Biden, after all his claims that he was against oil and climate change. But the faster Joe Biden allows oil to be produced in the US now, the closer we get to the peak of oil production, and the more likely it is that it will happen in the 2020s, just as I predicted way back in 2017.

Cheers!

[Peak_Yeast]

I think you misunderstand my point. My point is that unconventional oils are profitable because we have much higher oilprices than what we had before 2003.

[theluckycountry]

...oil shale is only a minor net energy producer if one includes internal energy (energy in the shale that is used during the process) as an energy cost. The energy return on investment (EROI) for either of these methods is roughly 1.5:1 for the final fuel product...

“At the wellhead” EROI is approximately 2:1 for shale oil (again, considering internal energy) and 20:1 for petroleum.

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _Oil_Shale

It's a sink, like solar is a sink.

Economic Implications of EROI

Here are the economic implications and effects of EROI:
Price – As EROI decreases, price increases. It can be shown in photovoltaic solar panels.
Economic Downturn – Some experts state that a decrease in net energy and an increase in capital intensity contribute to an economic downturn.
Elasticity – When the EROI is above 10, the relationship between the price and EROI is relatively stable and linear. If the EROI falls below 10, prices drastically fluctuate.
Profitability – The EROI score suggests both price limits and profitability.

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/r ... ment-eroi/

[Plantagenet]

<https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227439264_Energy_Return_on_Investment_EROI_of_Oil_Shale>

I clicked through to look at your link....it was published in 2011, i.e. 12 years ago, and is based on data from 2010.

I hate to have to be the one to tell you, but 2010 is THIRTEEN YEARS AGO.


The info you are posting is 13 years old. I hate to break it to you, but the oil biz has changed a lot in the last 13 years.

Shale oil production in the US has gone up by TEN TIMES since the year 2010.

Do you have any more up-to-date info to support your claims?

If shale oil is uneconomic, as you claim, then how did shale oil companies manage to boost oil production in the USA by 10x over the last 13 years?

And why are so many shale oil companies still in business today, 13 years after the publication you cite implied they were uneconomic?

And why are so many shale oil companies now making "tsunamis of money" according to a recent report from the Financial Times.

----------------------------

Personally, I'm not a fan of shale oil. I'm just trying to see and understand what is going on in the real world.

AND in the real world, shale oil companies actually are making money and producing lots and lots of oil.

BUT.....their production seems to be hitting a plateau.

In spite of the jump in oil prices during the Biden administration, shale oil production isn't growing very much.

To me, that suggests that US shale oil production is nearing a plateau, and that presages a peak and then a decline in shale oil production.

It's all happening just as I predicted in 2017 when I started this thread.

I still am predicting that shale oil will peak before the end of the 2020s, and all global oil production will peak soon after.

CHEERS!

[Plantagenet]

Oilprice.com joins the IEA in supporting my prediction that peak oil will happen in the 2020s.

oilprice-com-see-peak-oil-happening-this-decade

Both Oilprice.com and the IEA made their prediction 6 years after I made mine, but I don't mind that they took so long....better late then never.


Both Oilprice.com and the IEA made their prediction 6 years after I made mine, but I don't mind that they took so long....better late then never.


Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

[Plantagenet]

The IEA just repeated their prediction that global oil production will peak in the 2020s.

And then they went even farther and said that natural gas AND coal will also hit peak production in the 2020s.

I think there is a bit of wishful thinking there........there is absolutely no sign of coal production or coal demand peaking.

In fact China and India are both ramping up coal use for electricity at an amazing rate....china is still permitting two new coal-fired power plants each week.

And just to make this topic spicier, OPEC just released a statement attacking the IEA prediction of peak oil.

opec-slams-iea-over-peak-fossil-fuel-demand-prediction

“It is an extremely risky and impractical narrative to dismiss fossil fuels, or to suggest that they are at the beginning of their end.”

“In past decades, there were often calls of peak supply, and in more recent ones, peak demand, but evidently neither has materialized. The difference today, and what makes such predictions so dangerous, is that they are often accompanied by calls to stop investing in new oil and gas projects,” the cartel said.

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais also commented on the IEA’s projections and claims, noting that “Such narratives only set the global energy system up to fail spectacularly. It would lead to energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale, with dire consequences for economies and billions of people across the world.”



So now gloves are off....OPEC says peak oil ISN't coming any time soon.