[BrianC]

BlackRock Says Get Ready For a Recession Unlike Any Other (msn.com) 211
Posted by msmash on Thursday December 08, 2022 @12:42PM from the shape-of-things-to-come dept.
A worldwide recession is just around the corner as central banks boost borrowing costs aggressively to tame inflation -- and this time, it will ignite more market turbulence than ever before, according to BlackRock, the investment giant that manages about $10 trillion. From the report:
The global economy has already exited a four-decade era of stable growth and inflation to enter a period of heightened instability -- and the new regime of increased unpredictability is here to stay, according to the world's biggest asset manager. That means policymakers will no longer be able to support markets as much as they did during past recessions, a team of BlackRock strategists led by vice chairman Philipp Hildebrand wrote in a report titled 2023 Global Outlook.

"Recession is foretold as central banks race to try to tame inflation. It's the opposite of past recessions," they said. "Central bankers won't ride to the rescue when growth slows in this new regime, contrary to what investors have come to expect. Equity valuations don't yet reflect the damage ahead." The prospect of limited policy support means investors need more dynamic methods -- involving more frequent portfolio changes and taking a more "granular view on sectors, regions and sub-asset classes" -- to navigate the volatility ahead, according to BlackRock. "What worked in the past won't work now," the strategists said. "The old playbook of simply "buying the dip" doesn't apply in this regime of sharper trade-offs and greater macro volatility. We don't see a return to conditions that will sustain a joint bull market in stocks and bonds of the kind we experienced in the prior decade."
https://news.slashdot.org/story/22/12/0 ... -any-other

[Newfie]

I expect a recession.

On the other hand I expect it to be milder in the USA than in most places.

Things may get tight, but we have always been pretty frugal and have zero debt. So I think we personally will survive OK.

From the little I know of China, they may be in a world of hurt.

[ROCKMAN]

Newfie - I agree. Also, what does a "global recession" really mean: much of the world has been in a severe depression for decades if not forever. And I doubt many will ever see the other side.

But even when looking at the US alone it's a question of how you define a situation. The old joke: it's a recession if my neighbor loses his job and a depression if I lose my job. And if I'm working and fat and happy? What depression? Sounds like a buyer's market to me. LOL

And similar with inflation. Wife and I have no debt. credit cards automatically paid off every month so no interest changes. And thanks to inflation adjustment our social security income jumps about $3,500 next year. And thanks to the Fed our last CD rate almost tripled (special promotion) so another $5,000 kiss next year.

What inflation/recession? LOL

[Plantagenet]

But even when looking at the US alone it's a question of how you define a situation. The old joke: it's a recession if my neighbor loses his job and a depression if I lose my job. And if I'm working and fat and happy? What depression? Sounds like a buyer's market to me. LOL

And similar with inflation. Wife and I have no debt. credit cards automatically paid off every month so no interest changes. And thanks to inflation adjustment our social security income jumps about $3,500 next year. And thanks to the Fed our last CD rate almost tripled (special promotion) so another $5,000 kiss next year.

What inflation/recession? LOL

You are lucky to be insulated from inflation and the coming recession, but most people aren't so lucky. About half the US population lives from paycheck to paycheck....that means they spend all the money they have and have no savings cushion. Inflation is absolutely crushing working people and the poor.

The big question is just how bad its going to get. BlackRock and some other financial geniuses are saying its going to get very bad.....and the people saying inflation is coming down and we will have a soft landing and miss having a recession are mostly the same morons who spent a year saying inflation would be transitory and nothing to worry about so there was no need to raise interest rates.

Personally I think the ongoing collapse of crypto, stocks, bonds and real estate is just the beginning I think its going to get worse for three reasons. FIRST We've got the original inflation problem caused by Biden's excessive government spending, with an all time record deficit of ca. 250 billion dollars occurring just last month. Those deficits are just going to get worse and worse, especially if the Ds pass another absurd spending OMNIBUS bus in the lame duck congress.

SECOND we've got the mother of all crises about to hit China now that they emerge from their covid lockdown protocols. The communist idiots who run China were too stupid to buy US vaccines that work and they even failed to vaccinate China's population with the ineffective SINOVAX vaccine they made in China. So that economy is going to take a massive hit as covid races through the whole population.

And THIRD....more bad stuff is going to happen, Covid racing through unvaccinated billion people in China may lead to new variants that are even more deadly. Putin may use nukes in Ukraine. The real estate collapse in the US maya get much much worse. The Rs in congress may refuse to raise the debt limit to accommodates Biden's huge new debts. Biden may have even more mental and physical health problems as he ages past 80.

I'm not optimistic about the economy next year.


The "Hooverville" of homeless people in Seattle during the great depression.......this same area is now filled with homeless people again, only conditions today are even worse..... they are living in tents instead of the nice shacks they had during the depression.

Cheers!

[careinke]

I'm not optimistic about the economy next year.


The "Hooverville" of homeless people in Seattle during the great depression.......this same area is now filled with homeless people again, only conditions today are even worse..... they are living in tents instead of the nice shacks they had during the depression.

Cheers!

Those are WAY better conditions then today. Look closely at the picture, where is the trash? Most of those tiny homes have a wood stove inside. Heck there are even garbage cans spread around. It looks pretty clean.

Today the conditions are far worse. The streets are covered in piss, shit, puke, and people who cannot control their emotions or bodily functions. Violent crime and property crimes are out of control. The police are hamstrung, the jails won't take them, prosecutors don't, and the criminals know it.

In the meantime we worry about pronouns, protecting someone else's boarder while ignoring ours, while our children are poisoned daily.

Peace