[jedrider]

Looking at the history of China, it looks like societies that try to live within their environmental means achieve less. But now we live in a global society that is inherently limited, so the trick of trying for expansion has stopped working. Even if somebody starts mining the moon, the possible benefits will likely be too limited to make a difference.

OK. So it looks like all we got of this crazy overshoot is the James Webb Telescope.

Human society IS at maximum resiliency, but mother nature is our foundation. As one system reaches it's peak (of complexity), the other is collapsing (to a great simplification).

[FamousDrScanlon]

U.S. high tide flooding breaks records in multiple locations

“High tide flooding is becoming more common and damaging in many parts of the U.S.,” said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., NOAA Administrator. "As part of NOAA’s work to build a Climate-Ready Nation, we will continue to provide coastal communities with the information needed to anticipate, prepare for and respond to increasingly frequent high tide flooding.”

High tide flooding, often referred to as “nuisance” or “sunny day” flooding, is increasingly common due to decades of sea level rise and driven, in part, by climate change."

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-hi ... -locations

...

"..build a Climate-Ready Nation..." LOL

Here's some American socialism. Any American who has had a FEMA flood insurance subsidy is a socialist.


Congressional Reauthorization for the National Flood Insurance Program

https://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance/ru ... horization

Sea Level Rise is going to lead to a real estate rush to the exits on the Eastern seaboard and devalue trillions in property value overnight.

...

The daily Mail is most often TRASHY, but they do photos better than anyone. The report below has many pictures that help tell the tale.

US sea levels will rise as much in the next 30 years as they did in the past CENTURY, with major Eastern US coastal cities hit regularly with costly flooding, alarming new report finds


A new report shows the rise in sea levels will impact major U.S. cities regularly with costly floods even on sunny days

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) report shows US coasts will see another 10 to 12 inches of sea level rise by 2050

This expected sea level rise is as much in the next 30 years as it did in the past 100, pushing storm surge to the extreme and inundating vulnerable coastal infrastructure with saltwater

High-tide flood events in coastal cities, including New York, Washington, Miami, have already doubled in annual frequency since 2000

Researchers say what used to be a 'rare event' is now a 'disruptive problem'

"By 2050, seas lapping against the U.S. shore will be 10 to 12 inches higher, with parts of Louisiana and Texas projected to see waters a foot and a half higher......Damaging floods typical of today's sea levels, weather conditions and infrastructure are expected to occur more than 10 times as often in the next 30 years,.."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... years.html

....

A HUGE concern about America's most important and expensive Naval base has been largely ignored (let's do another study - let's form another committee") for going on a decade.

2017

Rising Seas Are Flooding Norfolk Naval Base, and There’s No Plan to Fix It

The giant naval base in Virginia is under threat by rising seas and sinking land, but little is being done to hold back the tides.

“It’s not supposed to be a pond,” said Joe Bouchard, a retired captain and former base commander. “It is now.”

Naval Station Norfolk, home to the Atlantic Fleet, floods not just in heavy rains or during hurricanes. It floods when the sun is shining, too, if the tide is high or the winds are right. It floods all the time.

“It is an impediment to the base accomplishing its mission,” Bouchard said.

Joe Bouchard, a retired captain and former base commander, has become a proponent for helping Norfolk adapt to sea level rise.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/2510 ... -virginia/

...

2018

Rising seas threaten Norfolk Naval Shipyard, raising fears of 'catastrophic damage'

“Every year you wait to make decisions and take actions, the risk goes up," said retired Rear Adm. Jonathan White.

Today, it’s one of four Navy shipyards that maintain the nation’s nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers, which enable the Pentagon to respond quickly to military and humanitarian crises across the globe.

But the shipyard now faces its greatest existential threat: rising seas and extreme weather driven by climate change.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ri ... ge-n937396

...

2022

Experts: climate change impacting Navy base, other national security infrastructure in Hampton Roads

Portsmouth Mayor Shannon Glover was among a few leaders in Hampton Roads advocating the Senate to pass funding to protect the area from climate change.

On Friday, Hampton Roads leaders along with others called on the U.S. Senate to pass funding to protect our national security infrastructure against climate change.

“If we don’t start addressing it now, we are going to have a real problem in the future,” explained Norfolk councilwoman Andria McClellan.

Gene Magruder, who is part of the local steelworkers union, said the money is desperately needed in Hampton Roads.

Organizers with the Climate Action Campaign said the Hampton Roads region is home to the largest naval base in the world -- Naval Station Norfolk -- where 150,000 active-duty and civilian personnel serve. The growing frequency and impact of extreme weather events inevitably compromises military preparedness and infrastructure around the country as well.

https://www.13newsnow.com/article/tech/ ... 0d4f30fdb7


The locals are paying attention, but the big federal attention & money is needed. The recent POTUS's seem obsessed with Russia or building meaningless border walls - you know, the flashy attention getting distractions/theater. The naval base is a big one, but not the only huge vulnerability for the military and otherwise. Years go by with fuck all being done. Why? Because they have no plan other than Overshoot-runaway climate change musical chairs.
If you and your get caught in the next AGW Jacked disaster they will of course try and rescue you. As long as the resources are there the blank check rescues will continue, but as for long term plans, getting in front of these disasters, you are on your own. Local action is your best bet. Advocating to the big guns for money to shore up your local defenses is probably a misuse of your time & energy. Who knows you might get lucky, but I'm not depending on the federal government to rescue me & mine. If you look at what happens after the disaster - the locals help each other and are there before government people. That will be the future. Why not make a game plan before the next disaster hit? What the government does for us during disasters we will have to do for ourselves just like the good ole days so many long for.

I recommend the video primer below as first choice for a primer for any uninitiated family and friends who are genuinely curious.


How To Enjoy The End Of The World

A series of videos on the present and continuing collapse of global industrial civilization. We examine the nature of our civilization, the causes of its collapse, and the pathways we can take as individuals and communities towards resilience and renewal.

Please begin by watching the Prologue and the Introduction.

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=P ... KHQ-7UasJH

[Doly]

Sea Level Rise is going to lead to a real estate rush to the exits on the Eastern seaboard and devalue trillions in property value overnight.

That tells you where a lot of the money for climate change denial came from. Climate change denial is still going strong, so probably that property isn't going to be devalued until it's literally uninhabitable.

If you and your get caught in the next AGW Jacked disaster they will of course try and rescue you. As long as the resources are there the blank check rescues will continue, but as for long term plans, getting in front of these disasters, you are on your own. Local action is your best bet.

Been there, done that. I was involved in the local Transition Town initiative. It got taken over by standard greenies, who are not bad meaning, but have been already trained to self-sabotage. Before being around greenies, I thought that self-sabotage was a weird concept invented by psychologists as a way of explaining away some people's failures, but watching greenies I discovered it's a very real thing. Some people do self-sabotage. Getting anything organized with such people is damn near impossible.

Why not make a game plan before the next disaster hit?

Where do you propose to get the information for a game plan? The Internet? Sorry, prepper sites have already been taken over by weirdness. They have lots of poor advice mixed with weird stuff unrelated to survival. Beyond the most absolute basics to survive a disaster for three days, they are usually useless, and even the suggestions to survive for three days are often poor quality.

I recommend the video primer below as first choice for a primer for any uninitiated family and friends who are genuinely curious.

Realistically, anybody who isn't into prepping by now has already discarded that possibility.

I really, really don't want to rain on your parade, but I wouldn't even be making comments again on this forum if my attempts to deal with the situation on my own had been halfway fruitful. I was sort of hoping to find some new ideas. Instead, I found bots/cyborgs and/or weird people. And I'm desperate enough to talk about the issues that I will take even that.

[mousepad]

I found bots/cyborgs and/or weird people.

I know, I feel the same way. There's all kind of weird people on this forum. Sometimes you even find arrogant people claiming "to be always right". That makes this forum quite interesting.

[vtsnowedin]

Compared to the number of bots and trolls on other web sites I see Peak oil as far ahead of the average. The number of serious posters has declined but let oil get back above say $150 a barrel and the site will boom again.
If someone needs to look for advice on how to survive a three disaster they probably are beyond hope and are headed for the victims list.
I find it curious that they feel rising sea level puts the Norfolk navel base at risk. After all most of their most valuable assets being ships and aircraft carriers are afloat and will simply float one foot higher. Of course it is equal to a small city with utility infrasture including waste water collection and treatment. But waste water pumping stations are fifty year old tech and can easily have another foot of riser pipe added. Perhaps some buildings and docks,/quays need to be rebuilt higher and enough fill brought in to raise the ground level throughout the base a couple of feet. While that is a big job it would be just that a "big job" and could be easily done.

[theluckycountry]

Compared to the number of bots and trolls on other web sites I see Peak oil as far ahead of the average. The number of serious posters has declined but let oil get back above say $150 a barrel and the site will boom again.

Hmmm, interesting opinion, it's sort of like the opinion of the crypto money hodlers, but I don't know if I agree. Some things just have their day and are done, peakoil's day was the early to late 2000's and now everyone has moved on but us true believers, and trolls like AdamB. Today the masses are mesmerized by social media, they are dislocated in their thinking by a decade and more of economic crashes, housing busts and finally the corona virus OP and the new war.

Most of these events have peakoil fingerprints all over them but no one hardly has connected the dots. The GFC was certainly triggered by peakoil, and I have seen similar beginnings here recently when the price of fuel got so high all the suburban commuters were struggling to pay their weekly gas bills. That's less money for mortgage repayments. It's amazing how many people live way out on one side of a city but work a job way out the other side.

Social planning, totally absent. Give a simple tax break to employers who hire workers in a 5km radius, give a similar one to those who find jobs locally too and the nation's fuel consumption would be cut in half.

[AdamB]

Been there, done that. I was involved in the local Transition Town initiative. It got taken over by standard greenies, who are not bad meaning, but have been already trained to self-sabotage. Before being around greenies, I thought that self-sabotage was a weird concept invented by psychologists as a way of explaining away some people's failures, but watching greenies I discovered it's a very real thing. Some people do self-sabotage. Getting anything organized with such people is damn near impossible.

When Transition Towns began firing up locally, using peak oil as the excuse for their existence way back when, one of their positions was...get this....negotiating with local Toyota dealers to get group discounts on a Prius. Save yourself from peak oil....buy stuff!!!

[Tanada]

Compared to the number of bots and trolls on other web sites I see Peak oil as far ahead of the average. The number of serious posters has declined but let oil get back above say $150 a barrel and the site will boom again.
If someone needs to look for advice on how to survive a three disaster they probably are beyond hope and are headed for the victims list.
I find it curious that they feel rising sea level puts the Norfolk navel base at risk. After all most of their most valuable assets being ships and aircraft carriers are afloat and will simply float one foot higher. Of course it is equal to a small city with utility infrasture including waste water collection and treatment. But waste water pumping stations are fifty year old tech and can easily have another foot of riser pipe added. Perhaps some buildings and docks,/quays need to be rebuilt higher and enough fill brought in to raise the ground level throughout the base a couple of feet. While that is a big job it would be just that a "big job" and could be easily done.

It has been known for a couple decades now that the ground around Norfolk, VA is sinking at a rate higher than the local sea level rise. Speculation is this is the result of an ancient meteorite impact that was filled in by soft sediment in the last major glaciation cycle and as a result the ground is fractured and soft for a considerable distance in from the present coast. At the time of impact during the major glaciation the region was high and dry with the sea coast many miles further east because of much lower sea levels.

[Doly]

When Transition Towns began firing up locally, using peak oil as the excuse for their existence way back when, one of their positions was...get this....negotiating with local Toyota dealers to get group discounts on a Prius. Save yourself from peak oil....buy stuff!!!

Transition Towns didn't use peak oil as the excuse for their existence, they used it as the reason for their existence. Or at least, that's what I believed at the time. Considering the sort of people that joined, I suppose saying that peak oil was the excuse is a valid jab.

There were people that wanted to promote use of electric cars within the group, and I always insisted to be cautious about that because I've never been entirely convinced that electric cars, when everything is accounted for properly, cause less carbon emissions than ICEs. I have seen papers that make that argument, but the problem for me is that it all rests on calculating all energy losses correctly, and there are a lot of energy losses to account for, so there could be easily be a lot of holes in the calculations. I suppose the only way that the question could be settled for me once and for all is if a small island changed a significant portion of their fleet of cars to electric vehicles, and then the before-and-after comparison would be absolutely clear.

I totally agree that being green by buying stuff, especially big complicated stuff, is often a contradiction. And lots of people in my Transition Town group agreed with that. But the problem then is, we live in a society where the rich are the ones that get all the respect. If you want green ideas to become popular, you have to somehow convince rich people to adopt them. And then, the rich need to prove they are rich with their possessions. At the start of the green movement, the problem was solved by getting the rich to buy new green technology, with the idea that they would be the beta testers. And that wasn't a bad idea at the time. But soon, the rich that adopted green ideas started to demand that they wanted green versions of everything they had before. And there's always somebody willing to give the rich whatever they ask for, even if it's a bad idea. So we started to see products that were kind of green, but not really. Even big, expensive, totally unnecessary products that were marketed as green.

[C8]

I totally agree that being green by buying stuff, especially big complicated stuff, is often a contradiction. And lots of people in my Transition Town group agreed with that. But the problem then is, we live in a society where the rich are the ones that get all the respect. If you want green ideas to become popular, you have to somehow convince rich people to adopt them. And then, the rich need to prove they are rich with their possessions. At the start of the green movement, the problem was solved by getting the rich to buy new green technology, with the idea that they would be the beta testers. And that wasn't a bad idea at the time. But soon, the rich that adopted green ideas started to demand that they wanted green versions of everything they had before. And there's always somebody willing to give the rich whatever they ask for, even if it's a bad idea. So we started to see products that were kind of green, but not really. Even big, expensive, totally unnecessary products that were marketed as green.

This is a very interesting thing that you wrote here. Was this ever a planned out strategy or do you think it just evolved that way?

[C8]

Compared to the number of bots and trolls on other web sites I see Peak oil as far ahead of the average. The number of serious posters has declined but let oil get back above say $150 a barrel and the site will boom again.

One hopes! I still remember all the fun during the heyday of the Oildrum.

[JuanP]

Compared to the number of bots and trolls on other web sites I see Peak oil as far ahead of the average. The number of serious posters has declined but let oil get back above say $150 a barrel and the site will boom again.

One hopes! I still remember all the fun during the heyday of the Oildrum.

TOD was awesome! I lurked there for years, hardly ever posting any comments. There were so many smart, knowledgeable people posting there every single day that I almost never had time to finish reading and start writing. I miss TOD.

[jawagord]

I see someone has merged my “Has Global Warming Peaked” satire thread into this trash bin of denial but let’s continue. For 2022 global CO2e emissions are up 1% to a new record, coal use is up to a new record, population is up to a new record of 8 billion, but surprise the “Peak” in global temperature anomaly is still 2016! Could be a tough month of results for the “Peak Anomaly Deniers” as the European calculation usually runs hot compared to the American calculations!

The global mean temperature in 2022 is currently estimated to be about 1.15 [1.02 to 1.28] °C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. A rare triple-dip cooling La Niña means that 2022 is likely to “only” be fifth or sixth warmest.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-r ... ge-impacts

[AdamB]

The global mean temperature in 2022 is currently estimated to be about 1.15 [1.02 to 1.28] °C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. A rare triple-dip cooling La Niña means that 2022 is likely to “only” be fifth or sixth warmest.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-r ... ge-impacts

<yawn>

Turns out, as we now know, humans don't care. As though Kyoto wasn't enough of a tell, COP21 certainly was. Other than that, just check out the use of things we burn that create CO2, that we continue to burn more of, while whining about as though they will stop magically because we are whining.

Actions, meet reactions.

[ROCKMAN]

Adam: So true. Consider the parallel with smoking. What society understands the danger better than the US...especially our government? And yet: In 2020 the top exporters of Raw Tobacco were Brazil ($1.15B), United States ($618M), India ($606M), China ($572M), and Malawi ($488M). Same problem: prioritizing money over health.

[AdamB]

Adam: So true. Consider the parallel with smoking. What society understands the danger better than the US...especially our government? And yet: In 2020 the top exporters of Raw Tobacco were Brazil ($1.15B), United States ($618M), India ($606M), China ($572M), and Malawi ($488M). Same problem: prioritizing money over health.

I think it is far easier to prioritize lifestyle over most anything. Smoking would certainly be a part, but can you imagine First Worlders giving up their First Worlder Hood for the good of...others? "Yes, I will become Amish tomorrow and milk cows for the good of my species!!". Sure, I can find 5 folks to do it in the US, they'll come from the prepper ranks, back to earthers, Deep Green Resistance, whomever. Now, as for the other 330,000,000...well....GIVE ME MY SUV!!!

[theluckycountry]

I see someone has merged my “Has Global Warming Peaked” satire thread into this trash bin of denial but let’s continue...
A rare triple-dip cooling La Niña means that 2022 is likely to “only” be fifth or sixth warmest.

Yeah, most yanks are total slaves to their politics, so if you're a republican, you don't believe in climate change because they deny it.

That triple La Nina has been great, so cool the Summers up here in Australia, not that I mind the heat that much, and the A/C is there for when it gets over 38, but it's the insane weather climate change is bringing that is the real problem. Floods, bigger and bigger hurricanes, forest fires, droughts like along the west coast of the US for the last decade or so. Records being broken left right and center. Well were past the tipping point now I suppose so we'll just have sit back and see what the future brings.

France has been given the green light to ban short haul domestic flights.

The European Commission has approved the move which will abolish flights between cities that are linked by a train journey of less than 2.5 hours. …

The changes are part of the country’s 2021 Climate Law.
https://wentworthreport.com/2022/12/05/ ... in-travel/

[AdamB]

I see someone has merged my “Has Global Warming Peaked” satire thread into this trash bin of denial but let’s continue...
A rare triple-dip cooling La Niña means that 2022 is likely to “only” be fifth or sixth warmest.

Yeah, most yanks are total slaves to their politics, so if you're a republican, you don't believe in climate change because they deny it.

Better slave to politics I suppose than a Chinese mining operation. Of course, we know why the locals chose that route, some really do have more talent than just bending bananas.

[vtsnowedin]

I heard a fool on VT public radio demanding they shut down the airports in Vermont to save the carbon footprint. Never mentioned the carbon foot print in terms of per passenger miles compared to the alternatives which is worse so apparently they think if the planes are gone you will just stay home instead of hoping into a coal fired EV or train to get to where you need to go.

[AdamB]

I heard a fool on VT public radio demanding they shut down the airports in Vermont to save the carbon footprint. Never mentioned the carbon foot print in terms of per passenger miles compared to the alternatives which is worse so apparently they think if the planes are gone you will just stay home instead of hoping into a coal fired EV or train to get to where you need to go.

Well, no one has ever claimed that the environmentally loud are any better informed on their topic than the peak oilers of yesteryear.